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Thought I would start a thread regarding arctic sea ice, and an ongoing deep depression, seldom seen in June, with another one possibly on the cards into next week too. Very concerning in my view. The Alaskan and Canadian arctic is also very hot, and we are seeing what looks like wafer thin ice on that side of the pole. Any thoughts or opinions on this? -
I am offering my provisional outlook for Spring 2016 for the United Kingdom. In some ways the spring and summer are harder to forecast from a month or more out than winter because the Circumpolar Vortex weakens in spring; this makes it prone to sudden flips and higher latitude blocking-patterns which can cause remarkable changes in prevailing weather patterns in the space of a few days. That said, there are enough of the pan-regional temperature and circulation anomalies to gain some insight into the processes likely to affect the weather in coming months. Firstly El Nino: This is still in a positive phase with very warm water stretching to coastal Peru and Ecuador. This means the ITCZ remains strong and that will maintain strength in the NE Trade Winds in the tropical North Pacific. This implies a need for stronger Westerlies at higher latitudes to satisfy conservation of angular momentum laws. Secondly there is now a sizeable pool of really cold water in the mid NW Atlantic (this water gets really cold by February anyway but it is colder than normal by up to 3C) but the NE Atlantic is warmer than the seasonal norm (but not by a lot). Arctic Ice extent is less than normal in the Eurasian Arctic but extending a bit further south than normal around Newfoundland and of course Greenland and NE Canada are very cold indeed at present. Third, the QBO high over the Equator remains in Westerly Mode and we are still in active phase of the current Sunspot Cycle (Schwabe Cycle number 24, I do believe). We can now put the pieces together to arrive at a prediction: cont'd below
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So, we are reasonably confident that the melt season is beginning and there may be trouble ahead (there's a song in there somewhere). There is talk that we could see the northern polar ice reduce to virtually nothing. There is also talk of a slow melt season. There is also talk of satellites causing cold weather....... As always, I'll keep open the freeze season thread for a few days so any conclusions can be added. Keep it clean and wear a gum shield to avoid injury......
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As we enter into the autumn and winter periods, ice in the Arctic will grow. After breaking records for the melt season, are there any unusual happenings that will prevent decent growth rates or are we stuck with a low volume, low extent and quality of ice? Is there any research on the current situation that gives us any hope of a recovery? Currently we are at the edge of the yearly switch between melt and freeze and we could see some of both. Welcome to any new posters to this area. If you have a question about this topic, feel free to ask in the thread and hopefully someone will be able to provide an answer. The Arctic Ice melt season thread will remain open until the freeze is well under way and to give chance for any summaries. As always, stick to the rules and enjoy the debate.
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It's that time of year when we start to watch how the Arctic creates it's new winter coat. 2011 sees us close to the record minimum achieved in 2007. At some point over the next couple of weeks there should be the call of extent minima. Currently we are seeing a few tentative signs of growth but will we see further reductions before we know for sure the the refreeze has commenced? I will be leaving the melt season thread open until we are sure the freeze has started so please finish any discussion about melt in that thread. --> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69107-arctic-ice-discussion/ Enjoy..!!
