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Found 2 results

  1. I am offering my provisional outlook for Spring 2016 for the United Kingdom. In some ways the spring and summer are harder to forecast from a month or more out than winter because the Circumpolar Vortex weakens in spring; this makes it prone to sudden flips and higher latitude blocking-patterns which can cause remarkable changes in prevailing weather patterns in the space of a few days. That said, there are enough of the pan-regional temperature and circulation anomalies to gain some insight into the processes likely to affect the weather in coming months. Firstly El Nino: This is still in a positive phase with very warm water stretching to coastal Peru and Ecuador. This means the ITCZ remains strong and that will maintain strength in the NE Trade Winds in the tropical North Pacific. This implies a need for stronger Westerlies at higher latitudes to satisfy conservation of angular momentum laws. Secondly there is now a sizeable pool of really cold water in the mid NW Atlantic (this water gets really cold by February anyway but it is colder than normal by up to 3C) but the NE Atlantic is warmer than the seasonal norm (but not by a lot). Arctic Ice extent is less than normal in the Eurasian Arctic but extending a bit further south than normal around Newfoundland and of course Greenland and NE Canada are very cold indeed at present. Third, the QBO high over the Equator remains in Westerly Mode and we are still in active phase of the current Sunspot Cycle (Schwabe Cycle number 24, I do believe). We can now put the pieces together to arrive at a prediction: cont'd below
  2. So, we are reasonably confident that the melt season is beginning and there may be trouble ahead (there's a song in there somewhere). There is talk that we could see the northern polar ice reduce to virtually nothing. There is also talk of a slow melt season. There is also talk of satellites causing cold weather....... As always, I'll keep open the freeze season thread for a few days so any conclusions can be added. Keep it clean and wear a gum shield to avoid injury......