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A new tropical cyclone (designated 04A by JTWC) has developed in the Arabian Sea. The system consists of some banding features to the west and south of the system, but the JTWC noted also an eye feature was already associated with the system. 04A is forecast to strengthen into a category 1 equivalent hurricane while moving toward Oman. However, so far, the JTWC does not expect the system to actually hit Oman, as it becomes embedded in the westerlies just in time, forcing a recurve toward the northeast. Strong vertical wind shear will most likely kill the system off before it can reach land. Nevertheless, interests in Oman should be on the lookout for this system, in case the turn toward the northeast is delayed. Track forecast of 04A from JTWC. More information about the system can be found in a blog from Steve Gregory from Wunderground in the link below: http://dutch.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2842 Source: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ -
The third tropical cyclone of the 2013 season has formed, the first to form in the Arabian Sea (the other two, Mahasen and Phailin, formed in the Bay Of Bengal) this year. 03A is located a few hundred miles off the east coast of Somalia. Winds are currently at 35kts. The storm has some fairly deep convection over the LLCC, but with little or no banding. Shear is fairly low and waters are warm, so 03A could strengthen a little on the westward track over the next day or so prior to landfall. Dry air off Somalia could hinder development though, so 03A may not get a lot stronger than it is now. -
The fourth tropical cyclone of the 2012 North Indian cyclone season has formed around 400 miles east of Somalia. Sustained winds are currently 40kts. The cyclone had deep centralised convection overnight and tight banding. This convection has become slightly displaced this morning as shear has risen a little. This shear will prevent significant intensification, but 04A is likely to strengthen a little more as it heads towards the Somalian coast. This westward track is expected due to strong ridging to the north.
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At last!!! We have a tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, the first of the season! I was beginning to think that we may actually get a season with no tropical cyclone activity going on at the rate we were going! Tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean runs from April to December with spikes in activity in May and November. The first "spike", was very much absent. Anyway, Tropical Cyclone Murjan has formed approximately 300 miles east-southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somaila. Murjan has sustained winds of 35kts currently. The cyclone has some well developed banding features, but convection is slightly lacking over the LLC itself. A subtropical ridge to the north is guiding Murjan westwards towards the Somalian coast, and landfall is expected to occur within the next 24hrs. Therefore, Murjan has little time to strengthen. However, conditions are favourable so Murjan may reach a 45-50kt peak prior to landfall.
