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Hi all I promised to give this guide, so here it is. Its not complete and it is for those who are new to trying to work out this very difficult question. What to look for to get snow at sea level. (1) in showers (2) frontal weather (1) In showers 1) Dry bulb temperature below 5C, often 3C is a better mark 2) Dewpoint at or below zero 3) wet bulb temperature, if you have a weather station, no more than about 2C 4) 1000-500mb thickness (DAM) less than 522dm, lower if you are on the coast, but as high as 540dm it is possible in a heavy shower, but unlikely. 5) 850mb temperature of -7C or below, -5C it can occur but not often. 6) on the 850mb chart if the value shown on the contour line is below about 1290dm or 1300dm, then there is a high chance that ppn will be of snow. (The Met Office use 1293dm for a 50% and 1281dm as a 90% chance of snow) 7) zero degree isotherm or freezing level of 1,000ft or less to give a 50% or higher chance of snow at sea level. At 2,000 ft above sea level the chance is reduced considerably. (2) Frontal Weather Two types of front (1) warm front (2) cold front In (1) warmer air is flowing over the top of cold air, and in the case of (2) cold air is undercutting the warm air ahead of it. (1) is, I suppose the classic heavy snow situation which with strong winds can give blizzard conditions, even on relatively low ground, assuming all the factors are in its favour. This assumes they are, namely that very cold air lies near the surface but is not being moved away by an approaching frontal system. This stagnates and eventually retreats away again. In this instance then the above requirements need to be met along with (a) If prolonged and fairly heavy ppn occurs then what we call the wet bulb temperature will start to lower and this can enhance the probability of snow falling. In this instance if the wet bulb temperature is at 3C or below then the ppn can turn to snow from rain. Also, and this applies to showery conditions also, if the wet bulb freezing level(not easy to find on any chart!) is 2,000 ft or below, then ppn can readily turn to snow. In light ppn then, often, regardless of any of the above factors being favourable drizzle or light rain will fall not snow. (2) In this instance then if the air is not all that mild in the so called warm air and the cold air is very cold, with near negative values close behind the front, then even moderate ppn will readily turn to snow as the cold air undercuts the mild air. Use the values above for a guide. This has only touched the surface of trying to forecast will it snow or not but I hope gives, the less experienced, a guide of what to look for. On the topic of wet bulb temperature. I have still not worked out how to give Paul sufficient data that they can set up an algorithm to produce charts of wet bulb potential temperature and also wet bulb freezing level charts. If anyone knows how to do this please pm me or Paul as it would be another big step for Net Weather to be able to produce such charts from the GFS run. I hope you have lots of opportunity this winter to try this guide out. Footnote by Blessed Weather: This article was written by John Holmes, retired Met Office professional, in 2015.
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When I read posts, check the forecasts, and withstand the humidity I become disproportionately disappointed when a storm blows over (as in passes by 100 miles away) or doesn't even materialise at all in the British isles? The disappointment is lasting and very akin to how a football fanatic's evening feels when England are inevitably knocked out of a tournament. From reading the convective posts I get a sense a lot of people take it badly. Is there any science or research behind this? Is it simply the equivalent of a hobby or sport with a summer season?
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well i am off to Latvia this morning- unfortunately cloudy weather and temps of arund 10oC await me- not the cool or cold clear crisp days originally forecast- damn high weather sinking south i shall try and use the forum while i am away, but if i cant then i shall see you all on my return, and be ten times more excited about snow and christmas see you all later and hope you all have a good weekend, and week- love out to y'all, Davie x PS: wahoo i cant wait to go!!! im so excited, and i will have lots and lots of pics hehe
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Me gots me sum nice, snazzy jumpers and i love them, first vid clips of my fave one but i will get sum more 4 ya as time goes by VidClip of Stripey T'Shirt 1VidClip of Stripey T'Shirt 2Wha you guys think of it- most of my friends hate this one!! :o :o :o :lol: love out to y'all!!
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im rightfully renound for the happy bunny that is myself when drunk- so i will keep you all uptodate with my 'other side' when out at a pub, club, gig or down the park if hard up for money. I have had so many experiences in the past but for legal reasons i guess i cant give too much detail to you unfortunately! However i can tell you about the second most pi$$ed, wackiest night of my life, of which i cant remember much and that many other people actually told me about- lets just say i was a crazy boy and remember this was ony my second most drunk night, you dont even wanna know about the FIRST LOLoLOL are you comfy? then lets begin.........it was a boring, mild October night and David, Ruth, Kirk and Coral were going to the pub for a special JohnPell night where Davids fave local band, charlie brown ( http://www.charliebrowntheband.com ) were playing, along with others, to meet with about 30 friends, inlcuding Laura, Will, Ben, Jackie, Han, Annie, Carl, Gemma, Holly, Ollie, Ashley1, Ashley2, Wendy, Alex, John and others) along with about 100 other people who were also going from elsewhere around Suffolk. And during the night david done some very drunken, stupid, silly but utterly hilarious things which cemented his reputation as 'the legend' They are as follows:-randomly shouted out 'i suck c()ck' many, many times to random people who were bemused by the statement (IF ONLY THEY KNEW- MWUAHAHAHA)-posed for many pictures along with his lesbian friend jackie, who he performed with as the Lesbian and Gay duo who it turned out, everybody loved-sung really cheesey songs at the top of his voice-wrestled his friend carl in the middle of the floor-pulled down his rather trendy jeans to show everyone his 'mickeymouse' (His underwear had a mickeymouse on them, lets get that clear!!!)-had a barmen come up to him to tell him top 'put it away'-the same barmen came up to him as he dafodiled in the corner, the toilet was just too far away- ooops, bad me!! and david had to quickly 'whip it away'-the same barmen picked up many things which had been splashed by Davids urine, David was embaressed but said nothing and laughed anyway-broke a table leg when commencing the random wrestling-embaressed his second (yes second, LUCKY ME.lol) lesbian friend when discovering she was always there by shouting all sorts of stuff out for all to hear-commented on a mans 'part' in the toilets, who surprisingly invited him to go further which he declined, but kissed him anyway and then once agen declined to go further- tut!-made his friend Coral, fully girl may he add, snog him every time she wanted a fag HEHEHE-then tried to convince the barmen from earlier that the broken table was in fact a "very stable" table, and was almost good as new-declined the advances of a friend who turned out to be bi, but kissed him on the cheek anyways-danced on top of a table amongst cheers for all to see and cheer.-done a merry jig infront of everyone, without even realising it-wore a girls, army glittery hat to the toilets while keeping a straight face and not laughing-started on someone who said his shirt was nice (i misheard :S doh )-set his own hair (YES THTS RIGHT, MY OWN BLOOSY HAIR!) alight which failed, so he went on to do it agen only for his hair to be burnt off right at the front and all shinghed (sp?), also singhed (sp?) his beloved eyebrowsand that was just one of my legendary nights, bookings for me to legend up your event can be made via PM :lol: :o :o :o lol!!! hehe thanks you, goodnight and goodbyebtw, this is me when i got home, and after i had spent an hour in the toilet throwing my guts up, to which my bro, my mum and my dad didnt give two craps about and left me dying ooops oops ooops! i regretted it the next morning too!! and dont even ask why i have pics of me, i dont remember them being taken, eeks am i whats wrong with everything about our youth these days, ahh well if i bloody am! im having fun, and for now thats all im gonna care about!
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Well this is my first blog, and i will update it as often as i can be bothered to be honest. I will try and entertain you with the soap opera that is my life :o believe me, im a drama queen, i can make eating pasta instead of chips for tea into a nation-wide event :o :lol: i exagerate, i get overly-excited and im like a lil kid, but i pwomise you will all wub my blog to bits, and the stuff me manages to get myself into hahaha just you wait! God bless you all before you read such things :o love out to all of y'all!!!!heres a played around pic of moi for you all to look at
