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Showing results for tags 'East Pacific'.
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TD 18E has formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite disorganised, with more than one LLCC associated with the convective mass. The depression is drifting northwestwards but should turn north then northeast soon as a trough approaches from the west and recurves 18E. The resultant track will bring 18E close to the southern tip of Baja California but ultimately a landfall on the coast of Mexico, north of Mazatlan. Based on the disorganised state of the depression, significant strengthening is not expected. The depression should become a weak tropical storm before waters cool and and shear rises along track. -
Tropical Storm Raymond has formed in the east of the basin, off the south coast of Mexico. The storm is set to take an unusual path and drift northeast towards the coast of Mexico into a weakness in the ridge to the north. The ridging is expected to build back in in a few days time, which may cause Raymond to turn back west away from the coast. There are large uncertainties however, as a later turn west would mean that Raymond makes landfall. Conditions are favourable for intensification, with low shear and warm sea temps in the area. Regardless of what happens with track, portions of Mexico are in for, yet again, some high rainfall totals and flooding this week.
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An area of low pressure to the south-southwest of Tropical Storm Octave and well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become Tropical Storm Priscilla, with winds of 35kts. Priscilla is being sheared, partly to do with it's proximity to Tropical Storm Octave. The LLCC is located on the northeastern edge of an area of very intense convection. Despite the shear, Priscilla should still strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so. In a couple days time, shear will ease as Octave weakens, but Priscilla will be over cooler water by then, causing weakening. A ridge to the east over Mexico will push Priscilla north-northeast over the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is forecast to break down, and weakening Priscilla will be left to veer towards the west in the low level flow whilst it dissipates.
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Tropical Depression 15E formed overnight, directly south of the southern tip of Baja California. Since, it has strengthened, and become Tropical Storm Octave, with winds of 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC, with bands wrapping into the north and south quadrants. There is not a huge amount of covection over the LLCC, but the convection from the bands should rectify this soon. Octave has about another 24 hours over warm water and under low shear. Octave is expected to intensify a little more before shear increases significantly and waters cool along track. This should bring about a swift weakening, and dissipation shortly after. Octave is currently moving to the northwest. A turn to the north then northeast towards Baja California is expected as an upper level low causes a weakness in the steering ridge. As shear and cooler waters await Octave west of Baja California, Octave should not reach here as a tropical storm, or even a tropical depression for that matter, but will increase rainfall here in a few days time.
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After a lull lasting over two weeks, Tropical Storm Narda has formed in the East Pacific. The storm is located at around 13N 120W, well out to sea. Winds have increased to 40kts. Narda has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC, and some fairly strong banding features. As shear is set to remain low and waters warm over the next few days, Narda is expected to become a hurricane. Based on the structure of Narda and the favourable environment ahead, NHC's forecast peak of 70kts could be a little conservative, though based on the behaviour of the previous storms in this basin this year, it may well be near. Narda will not affect land as it takes a typical west-northwestward track over the coming days. In a few days time, shear will rise significantly and the storm will move over colder water, which will quickly weaken Narda. As the storm weakens, it will slow down and crawl towards the west as the steering currents are expected to collapse.
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Tropical Depression 13E has formed about 140 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The depression has winds of 30kts, and is characterised by expansive convection slowly consolidating around a broad LLCC. 13E is forecast to move north-northwest into a weakness in the ridging over Mexico and make landfall in about 36hrs time. This gives 13E time to become a mid-strong tropical storm prior to landfall.
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Tropical Depression 12E has formed from a disturbance moving northwestwards close to coast of Mexico. 12E is located about 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and has winds of 30kts. The depression is quite broad and doesn't have a great deal of concentrated convection near the LLCC. Shear is low and waters are warm, but the structure of the depression that I've just described argues against quick intensification. The depression only has a couple days in this envrionment, so it looks like we are going to have only a moderate TS at best from this system, barring any surprises. Henriette remains the strongest hurricane so far this season (90kt cat 2), and we still have no major hurricane. The last time we went through a season in the East Pacific with no major hurricane is 2003, so it's quite uncommon for there to be no Major Hurricane. There is still time of course, but 12E doesn't look like it will be a candidate. In a couple days time, 12E will begin to weaken from it's peak (NHC currently forecast this to be a modest 40kts) as it moves northwestwards into increasing shear and cooler waters west of Baja California. NHC forecast degneration into a remnant low in 4 days time, and complete dissipation of the low by day 5.
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The eleventh tropical depression of the season has formed well southwest of Baja California. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts, and some deep convection over the LLCC. 11E is still embedded in the ITCZ, and will find it difficult to strengthen as long as this is the case. 11E is expected to drift slowly north and intensify over the next couple of days, before reaching cooler water and increasing shear. This will quickly reverse the strengthening trend, and cause the system to weaken. As the depression becomes a remnant low, the weak system may be dragged back south towards the ITCZ. 11E is forecast to become a weak tropical storm over the next day or so, but significant strengthening is not expected. 11E should not affect land.
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Tropical Storm Juliette formed yesterday south of Baja California. The storm has moved northwestwards and is grazing the west coast of the Peninsula. Juliette has strengthened to 45kts but is fast moving towards colder water, which will soon initiate weakening. Strong winds and heavy rains will continue over Baja California for the next day or two but will then ease as the weakening cyclone pulls away to the west thereafter.
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The ninth tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite broad and the LLCC is exposed to the northeast of the main bulk of the convection due to moderate shear. 09E is forecast to move north-northwestwards along the southwest side of a ridge over mainland Mexico. This track will take 09E west of Baja California over the coming days, and will also take the depression over much colder water in about 36-48hrs. Therefore, 09E doesn't have long to strengthen, and based on the current organisation of the system, any strengthening will be slow. Therefore, 09E probably won't become any stronger than a minimal tropical storm.
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The area of disturbed weather that has been located for several days east of Hurricane Gil became the eighth tropical depression of the season yesterday, and has just strengthened into Tropical Storm Henriette, with winds reaching 35kts. The invest began to organise as Gil weakened and became less influential on this system. A fairly small but deep area of convection is persisting near the LLCC and there is some signs of banding in the southern quadrant, something the cyclone has lacked until now. Conditions seem favourable for the next few days for Henriette to strengthen, but NHC are being conservative with the intensity forecast as Gil moved through this same area a few days ago and weakened despite the low shear and warm sea temps. If Henriette behaves differently, it could become a hurricane prior to reaching cooler water in a few days time.
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Tropical Depression 07E has formed a little southeast of where Tropical Storm Flossie formed last week, about 700 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has organised quite quickly over the last 24 hours, but only has winds of 25kts currently. Convection is fairly deep over the centre, and 07E's small size means it could intensify quickly. 07E is expected to take a similar path to Flossie, with a general west-northwest heading expected along the south side of strong ridging. This track gives 07E about 72hrs to strengthen before the depression reaches cooler water, inducing weakening.
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Tropical Depression 06E has formed from invest 98E, located at about 15N, 122W, 950 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts. 06E has formed a decent amount of centralised convection, and may not be far off becoming a tropical storm. However, as the storm has formed so far west well away from the toasty eastern half of the basin, it doesn't have long over waters warm enough to support intensification; about 48 hours in fact. In this time, as shear is low, 06E should at least become a moderate to strong tropical storm, if there is no surprise rapid intensification. As 06E crosses into cooler waters in a couple days time, weakening will begin. Strong ridging to the north is expected to guide 06E on a typical west-northwest to westward heading through it's lifetime.
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Hurricane Erick
summer blizzard posted a topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
As i thought, we now have Tropical Depression 5. Track looks similar to prior systems and models don't think it will be more than a strong TS. -
Tropical Storm Dalila has formed off the south coast of Mexico. Sustained winds are 35kts. Dalila is a small tropical storm with a modest amount of convection covering the LLCC. The environment favours strengthening, with low shear and warm waters being evident. Dalila is forecast to move north towards the Mexico coast along the western side of a ridge to the east. Dalila should turn westwards before reaching the coast as a strong ridge to the north assumes steering influence in a day or two. Dalila has about 72hrs to strengthen, and NHC forecast a peak of 60kts so it is not out of the question for Dalila to become a hurricane.
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After a 3 week lull the third tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed in the eastern half of the basin, well south of the Mexican coast. Intensity is 30kts. 03E is a large tropical depression with sprawling bands and a small area of deep convection over the LLCC. Over the next few days, 03E is forecast to move on a typical west-northwest track on the southern side of ridging over Mexico. This gives the depression about 4 days over warm water to strengthen. Shear is expected to be low to moderate, so 03E is forecast to become a hurricane before reaching cooler waters.
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The second tropical depression of the 2013 East Pacific season has formed from invest 92E. 02E is located near the Gulf Of Tehuantepec off the southeast coast of Mexico. The disturbance has taken a while to organise as it moved little, but 02E finally has a well defined circulation and convection has built over this circulation over the last 6 hours. Intensity is 30kts. 02E is in an area of low shear and warm sea temps, so the only thing arguing against significant intensification is proximity to land. 02E is expected to drift northeastwards and make landfall in SE Mexico in about 24hrs time, so 02E only has this amount of time to intensify. So I think the NHC's forecast of a peak of 50kts is a fair one, and could even be a little generous based on past behaviour of this system (slow consolidation). Having said that, the central core of convection could mean some fairly quick intensification may be about to occur. Bottom line is that 24hrs over water isn't really enough to allow strengthening past moderate to strong TS. Therefore, the primary concern is flooding rains.
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The first tropical depression has formed bang on the East Pacific season's start date, around 500 nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Intensity is 30kts. 01E has a fairly healthy amount of convection over the LLC, but there is little or no banding at present. 01E is over very warm water, and should remain in a low shear environment for the next 4 days. Therefore, 01E is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves west-northwestward. As 01E reaches the western periphery of the ridge to the north steering it, it should begin to gain lattitude, and this will bring 01E over cooler water and stronger shear which should start to weaken the system beyond 96hrs. 01E is of no threat to land.
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Tropical Storm Rosa has formed in the East Pacific, well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Sustained winds are currently at 35kts. The storm has spun up rather quickly, and is well organised with excellent banding flanking the convection covered LLC. Rosa has another 24-36hrs to strengthen before shear rises and waters cool on the west-northwesterly track. As Rosa is so far out to sea, it is of no threat to land.
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Tropical Storm Paul has formed in the East Pacific, several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Paul has sustained winds of 35kts, but I think Paul could well be poised to strengthen quickly, as strong banding is already evident along with deep, centralised convection. Shear is low and waters are warm, so Paul could become a hurricane.
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Tropical Storm Olivia formed yesterday well out to sea at about 117 degrees W. Olivia is strengthening pretty quickly and is now a 50kt storm. Olivia has a tight core surrounded by strong banding. Olivia has about another 36hrs to strengthen, and is forecast to become a hurricane before shear increases after this time. Olivia is currently turning towards the northwest into a weakness in the ridging to the north, after moving westwards from birth yesterday. When the shear impacts Olivia, the storm should turn back towards the west as it becomes a shallow system steered by low level easterly flow.
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Tropical Storm Norman, the 14th named storm of the season, has formed close to the southern tip of Baja California. Intensity is 40kts. Norman has some deep convection covering the broad centre, but is unlikely to strengthen much further due to moderate shear and the fact that landfall on the Mexican coast is less than 24hrs away. Western Mexico and southwest USA are likely to receive some flooding from Norman over the next few days.
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The thirteenth tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The depression looks to be on the verge of becoming a tropical storm as convection continues to increase over the LLC, and banding features become better defined. Low shear and warm sea temps should allow 13E to strengthen over the next few days before the cyclone gets pulled northwards into colder waters.
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The twelfth tropical depression of the 2012 Eastern Pacific season has formed at roughly 125 degrees W, the westernmost formation so far this year. 12E is located in low shear and over warm water. These two factors should allow 12E to become a tropical storm, perhaps by later today. 12E is forecast to move northwestwards as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the steering ridge to the north. This gain in lattitude will place 12E in higher shear and over cooler waters in 2-3 days time causing 12E to weaken again. NHC forecast 12E to peak at an intensity of 45kts before this occurs. As 12E is a long way out in open waters, it should not threaten land.
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The eleventh tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Intensity is 30kts. The circulation is still a little broad, but, for the next 48hrs at least, conditions are expected to be favourable for intensification. After this time, on the typical west-northwesterly track, shear will increase and sea temps will cool, inducing weakening. NHC forecast a peak of 50kts before this occurs.
