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Hot on the toes of the heatwave and fires comes the Mediterranean version of a hurricane. From Estofex... Mesoscale Discussion Mesoscale Discussion Valid: Thu 17 Sep 2020 19:00 to Fri 18 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC Issued: Thu 17 Sep 2020 19:56 Forecaster: ESTOFEX + + + AMENDED + + + The bulletin was amended to include recent scatterometer data in the intensity analysis + + + The cyclone has almost reached hurricane strength. It has strengthened significantly after widespread deep convection developed in all quadrants and its satellite representation features spiral bands and occasional hints of an eye forming. Winds around the centre are estimated to have risen to near 30 m/s with higher gusts. Scatterometer data at a large distance from the centre indicate winds of 25 m/s. The central pressure is estimated to be near 986 mb. A little more intensification is expected in the next 6 hours. The cyclone has gradually moved eastward during the day, slightly faster than most model guidance, and is expected to be very close to the southern Ionian islands tomorrow morning at 06 UTC. By then, it should slow down and become almost stationary. Model guidance remains very divided about its fate, with some models like ICON let the cyclone disspate fully, whereas others, including GFS and ECMWF, predict it to move back onto sea to the south or even south-southwest. The forecast reflects the latter scenario. The wind is picking up across the coastal area of western Greece, with Kefalonia airport reporting a 15 m/s south-easterly wind with gusts to 20 m/s at 1800 UTC. The southern Ionian islands of Kefalonia and Zakynthos will likely experience hurricane-force or near-hurricane force winds, with gusts likely in the 40-50 m/s (144-180 km/h) range, and possibly higher across the mountains. Winds of similar strength or only marginally weaker will be experienced along the coastline of the Gulf of Patras from Astakos via Patras to Pyrgos and possibly further south to Kyparissia. A major risk with the cyclone are extreme amounts of precipitation and the attendant risk of flash flooding. Across large parts of the Peloponnese and Central Greece rainfall will exceed 200 mm, whereas near the cyclone's centre more than 400 mm may accumulate locally as it stalls near the Gulf of Patras. Another area at risk of extreme precipitation and flash floods are the eastern slopes of the Pindus mountains, where strong easterly upslope flow of humid air is expected, and result in accumulations around or above 400 mm in some areas. Finally, a risk of tornadoes exists with embedded convective storms east and northeast of the cyclone centre. The area of highest storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer has gradually shifted a bit northward in the latest model guidance. Hence the threat now seems highest in a wide area surrounding the Gulf of Patras.

OAA has had a chance to look back on all the weather and climate disasters of 2020. And like many other aspects of 2020, the numbers we're seeing aren't positive. 2020 officially broke the record for most $1 billion disasters. The 22 costliest events shattered numbers previously set by 16 separate billion-dollar disasters in 2011 and 2017. Note: the record here is for the number of events. In terms of cost, 2020's $95 billion price tag ranks as the fourth costliest. Hurricane Laura's damages came in at the highest price for 2020. In fact, seven of the 12 landfalling tropical systems caused at least $1 billion in damages, which is a record in itself. Western wildfires were also extremely active in 2020, consuming nearly 10.3 million acres. This includes about 4% of California's total acreage. To top it all off, 2020 ranked as the 5th warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S.. Here in the District, 2020 ranked as the 3rd warmest year, tying 2019 with an annual average temperature of 60.6 degrees. There are many other notable records and statistics to come out of 2020. A deeper analysis is available as part of NOAA's annual assessment here.