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Hi guys, Following the discussion on here regarding the links between UK winters and the Eurasian snow buildup in autumn, I've decided to open a comparison topic. Specifically, we'll be comparing this years run up to winter with some of the previous autumn/winter data. As the weeks progress, I will add to this thread. Please contribute anything if you feel I've missed anything. Solar Situation More data plots available here. http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/sidc_graphics.php 2010 Snow & Ice 2011 Snow & Ice 2012 Snow & Ice 2013 Snow & Ice October 4th October 4th October 4th October 3rd Ice: 5,696,935 KM2 Ice: 5,045,982 KM2 Ice: 3,927,099 KM2 Ice: 5,675,521 KM2 October 27th October 27th October 27th Ice: 7,751,957 KM2 Ice: 7,688,250 KM2 Ice: 7,169,323 KM2 November 20th November 10th November 13th Ice: 9,575,789 KM2 Ice: 8,861,284 KM2 Ice: 8,714,262 KM2 November 26th November 26th November 26th Ice: 9,920,062 KM2 Ice: 10,163,067 KM2 Ice: 10,050,317 KM2 December 1st December 1st December 1st Ice: 10,281,787 KM2 Ice: 10,505,579 KM2 Ice: 10,487,669 KM2 Arctic Oscillation Links: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml Personal Thought. Looking at the IMS images, its apparent that although October 10 started off with a higher Ice Extent value, both 2011, and 2012 saw 1st December kick off ahead of 2010. Taking into account what happened in 2010, If I remember correctly, there was a SSW event 6 weeks prior to the widespread snow event. (Chiono could perhaps confirm this) and if I recall correctly, a SSW can weaken the polar vortex which could go some way to explaining why the Ice extent slowed its advance compared with both 2011 and 2012. The AO index also shows a very negative index value for the winter of 2010/11. 500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative AO So if i'm correct about there being a SSW in 2010, then coupled with a severely negative AO, then the conditions were just perfect for the snow and cold event which ensued. Throw in a spotless sun and you could say it was the 'perfect storm'.
[center]Short update can be found at the very bottom[/center] [center][size=5]Autumn 2013 Forecast[/size][/center] The forecast below is made using the CFS monthly and seasonal forecast data as well as data from Climate Simulator a program where I input data of the current climate and it calculates the temperatures of the following months. [size=5]September[/size] Temperatures - For the rest of September near to average, with Southern parts of England experiencing some brief periods of colder weather. Rainfall - Similar with the temperatures for the rest of the month average rainfall. [size=5]October[/size] Rainfall - October for most of the UK is looking above average especially for Western parts meanwhile the far East coasts may get away with average rainfall amounts. [attachment=185915:OR.png] Temperature - Overall the UK in general looks to have average temperatures but Southern parts of England may get some spells of warmer weather and the far North of Scotland some spells of colder weather. Climate Simulator backs up the CFS forecasts and gives the UK temperatures 0.3c above average. [attachment=185916:OT.png] [size=5]November[/size] Rainfall - November is expected to carry on the above rainfall amounts from October although this time its mostly England, Wales and Ireland while most of Scotland are closer to average in the North. [attachment=185917:NR.png] Temperatures - Average temperatures for the whole of the UK says the CFS but the Climate Simulator gives us 0.5c above average temperatures. Overall I believe Novembers temperatures will be mostly average but some periods of weather may bring in slightly warmer temperatures. [size=5]Monthly Pressure Patterns[/size] [size=5]October - [/size]Strong high pressure sits to our North West in the Atlantic, [attachment=185920:Preo.png] [size=5]November -[/size] Similar pressure set up to October, [attachment=185921:Pren.png] [center][size=5]Start of Winter Predictions[/size][/center] [size=5]December[/size] This isn't a actual forecast yet just a very quick look at the start of winter. Rainfall - Looking very wet across the West and average elsewhere. Temperatures - CFS goes for average temperatures and Climate Simulator 0.3c above average. [size=5]Overall -[/size] Autumn looks mostly wet and probably unsettled at times, temperatures close to average for most of the time but some mild spells of weather may make things slightly warmer than usual. Early winter looks to carry this on through being wet with around average temperatures. [center][b][size=5]Update 1st of November 2013[/size][/b][/center][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]November[/b][/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]December[/b] - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]January[/b] - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.[/font][/color]