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Welcome To The Snow And Ice NH thread for 2015 ​I have to Attach the latest snow/ice map due to somehow unable to paste it It seems that Northern Russia seems to be having a bit of a early snowfall. Enjoy Edit: The picture came out well in the end

Well here we are at the beginning of November and there's the chance for the first snowfall of the season! The high ground of Scotland and Northern England look to bear the brunt of the snowfall, with the chance of some accumulations to lower levels (maybe staying above 100m) especially in Scotland, but also into the Midlands Tuesday night into Wednesday. Of course this is biased speculation, and also there's still plenty of time to go in terms of nailing snow forecasts, but as an avid coldie looking for more snow than he can handle this is looking pretty decent for my area tomorrow, considering it's still Autumn!! Whether this thread gets used or everyone stays chatting in their respective regional threads, I felt this very early taste of Winter deserved a proper mention. Netweather charts: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= Met Office Warnings: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1478563200&regionName=st BBC Forecast Animation: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!

Howdy. Now that March is arriving, it's that time when topics like this begin to arise out of the ground of Netweather. Therefore thought it was time to ask you ladies and gentlemen what you thought about this Winter. Technically, for some of you, Winter might not be over till 21st March or even when the last flaje of snow has landed on ya house. And indeed, just like what could happen this month, March can turn out to be more Wintrier than the main Winter months. But since the main part of the season is behind us, still seemed suitable to start up this thread. For some, this could quite possibly be one of the worst Winters of your dreams. For others, this could be one of the better ones. What did seem clear, however, is the further South you were, the fewer the snow events were. I think admittedly, it has been a season full of frustrations for a number of people - not just for the below average snowfall, but for the menacing floods it has caused. One of those Winter's where you feel like you may need a sick bucket to throw up in. For me, this is what I'd score this Winter, Frost: Generally below average. Frost was practically non-existent in December thanks to an incorruptible European High Pressure system constantly swallowing up mild air from the South-West through the UK, especially the Southern half. Things did slowly start improving for frost possibilities in January with a few cold, crispy mornings. And then, as Februrary took the spotlight, frosty weather become noticeably more common, especially towards the end of the month, with a chillier anti-cyclonic influence. A couple of days containing mornings where the frost was quite thick. Nothing too exceptional, though, and if it wasn't for February, frost levels would have been significantly below normal. Rating: 2.5/5 Snow: Very piteous. There was hardly any daytime snowfall which, for here, is disappointing. Can't really think of many others years that went by without a daytime snowfall here. Even the almost snowless Winter of 2013/14 produced some daytime falling snow (where an Atlantic front in February turned to snow as cold Westerly winds undercut the system). Nevertheless, there were one or two little snowfalls in January, as some chilly conditions developed from the North during the middle of the month with a thin covering on one of the days. Additionally, one evening produced a wintry mix of showery precipitation with an unstable North-Westerly flow. No snow whatsoever in December and there was... one snow shower in February! While not a completely snowless season, it could have been better. Was just a tad superior to Winter 2013/14, but no dumpings of snow greater than 1cm. Do, however, feel sorry for those of you cold weather fans even further South who probably haven't even seen a covering, let alone any falling snow. On the whole, the Solihull Snow Shield was strong. Rating: 2/5 Northern Blocking: Nothing too remarkable, but would be fair to say this Winter hasn't been totally absent of it. For a time, January managed some fairly brief periods of weakish heights and surface High Pressure over Greenland with some blocking in the Atlantic towards the middle of the month. Some fairly modest heights towards Scandinavia just before mid-month as blocking over Europe sent some Warm Air Advection towards the Arctic, though shortwave developments over the Norway part destroyed what could have been some stronger blocking to our North-East. The Arctic Osscilation, I think, went into neutral/negative territory for a brief period, but don't think it lasted as long as some were anticipating. Bit of a let down in that respect. Hardly much, if any, High Latitude Blocking in December with the troublesome Vortex to our North/North-West joining forces with the European High by maintaining a general flattish West to South-Westerly pattern. February had at least seen more amplification in the weather patterns allowing a more meridonal setup to establish, particularly towards the second half with, again, some blocking to our West and some weakish heights over Greenland. Not strong enough, nor sustained enough to completely wipe out the Vortex over that area (models, though, do continue to play about with some kind of mid-Atlantic ridging). But perhaps better than nothing and the blocking in the Atlantic has helped assist Low Pressure to drop South-East into Europe at times with some okayish Easterlies. Rating 2.5/5 Convection: Something else that has been lacking this Winter. Not many days I can recall with sunshine and showers. Just the odd day or two here and there. Unless I missed any days with grapualy type precipitation, can only recall one day with just one hail shower (and that other one with an evening snow shower). On any other days where sunshine and showers occurred, the convection in the sky didn't look particularly 'clean'. Love those proper convective sunshine and shower setups with the inviting displays from towering Cumulonimbus clouds. As such, it was a pity that this Winter didn't produce much in the way of that. Selective memory perhaps might be an issue when it comes to sotuations like this, but feel as though convection and these sunshine and shower setups have become less frequent in the last few years or so. Rating: 1.5/5 Storms: One of the stronger aspects of this Winter. An active Atlantic in December and, in some ways, during January throwing a number of wind storms our way. One or two producing wind gusts around 30/40mph and over. There were a few odd nights where I had some squally precipitation with rain absolutely lashing it down against the windows - one instance of which produced monsoon-like conditions that made me feel as though I was under a Tropical Storm. Not as many wind storms in February, though, with a less active Atlantic and a wavier Jet Stream. Atlantic storms aren't really my thing, but one or two of them were interesting to experience, especially the one which produced some monsoon rain type conditions. Also, I think in terms of windy weather, it could be a subjective thing for some people since getting numerous wind storms doesn't necessarily make it a great Winter. And I guess the same thing could be said for snow, too. One of the main issues, however, was the flooding some of these moody Lows created over North-Western parts. Rating: 3.5/5 Sunny/Bright Intervals: Virtually absent in December. Too much gloomy weather around which made for some depressing days. Bar one or two odd brighter days, the amount of cloudy weather around was incredible with barely any peep from the sun. Was glad once it reached January, and February especially, that the never ending supply of Tropical Maritime air was in decline with an increased frequency of clearer air masses such as Polar Maritime and some little fleetings of Arctic Maritime and Polar Continental air. February as a month seemed much less duller compared to December. Did still have it's fair share of cloudier days. But a fair share of sunnier days, too. Despite the dullness of December, February helped to make up for it. A bit. Rating: 2.5/5 Variation: Fairly poor really with not much snow (although I know it's easy to expect too much sometimes) and not much in the way of heavy showers, specifically those containing a wintry mix. A few odd heavy downpours from frontal precipitation, nonetheless, to spice up the action a little. Frosty weather did at least become somewhat more common the later in the season it got. And, oddly enough, the exceptionally mild December with its lack of varied and bright weather is something that would probably make this Winter stand out (despite how much I enjoy cold and snowy weather). To get a December CET above 9*C is phenomenal. The season could have still done with more variation though, and it would have been cool to get a very mild December without such cloudy weather. Little too much in the way of cyclonic weather, too, even though rain amounts didn't seem much above average. Rating 2.5/5 Total Score: 17/35 A seriously uncool Winter overall. The snow just too grumpy to come to the UK (mostly for those to the South of Northern UK anyway). It's only redeeming features being the amazement of how mild December was and also some of the brighter, frosty, weather towards the end. The fatigue of chasing every dreamland cold chart in the models became a little overpowering by the time February approached and has made me started to crave for some Spring weather (still with the hope of a daytime snow event). Maybe wouldn't be surprising if March really did turn out to be the chilliest and/or wintrist month outside of Winter. Whatever you do Winter 2015/16, please don't come back! What about you guys - how'd you rate this Winter?

A look back in the archives at the winter of 1947 in Buxton, Derbyshire, which was branded 'the longest and harshest in the town's history' http://www.buxtonadvertiser.co.uk/news/local/memory-lane-buxton-shivers-in-the-big-freeze-of-1947-1-7719252#

Seen a lot of discussion about a torpedo in the model thread and frankly don't understand: What is it? What weather wild it bring? When is it? How can we be so sure this far out?

There might already be a thread for this, but figured it'd be good to have one in the winter forum. What do you want from winter - (1st December to 28th February official, looking a little longer this year if things go to plan). Do you want a mild, wet winter or a cold and snowy winter, or something different. What snow depth do you want, if realistic pressures like having to get to work weren't a barrier, what temperatures do you want? I'll start: Snow depths: 120cm by Christmas, 240cm-360cm by February Temperatures: Record of -25C maximum by day and -35C minimum by night Icicle counts: Should occur regularly and be anything up to 3ft in length Snow drifts: Good 10ft or so Maximum Windspeed: Around 150mph Ice Days: At least 40 Frosts: Every day from Dec to Feb

This is similar to my "Summer vs. Winter" poll I did a few weeks back, but this one has a few differences. You can now choose between any season and also tell us all which one you hate. Why make this thread? - Well why not! My favourite season is quite a difficult choice between Spring and Summer, but I think Summer does just come out a bit farther ahead. This is because I like the feeling of being warm and having long days to do what you want with. I also like the powerful thunderstorms that Summer creates. Spring however does bring quite varied weather, like the possibility of a March snowfall and an early arrival of Summer in May, but as said, I think I prefer Summer slightly more. My least favourite season would definately be Autumn. I absolutely hate Autumn! The only thing I like about it is how beautiful the trees can look but that is about it. September is the only decent month with the other two simply being a mix of horrible wet and windy weather. It is also too cold and too dark to now enjoy the sun and warmth and it's too mild for snow. You're also watching everything die and rot, especially in October and November. Autumn is just depressing in my opinion and that's why I hate it!

Welcome to the first monthly test of our new HO-PI (Hope Index - pronounced Hope E I), a new (light hearted!) index for the community to predict the winter ahead. It's a pretty simple theory - for 10 days at the end of September, October and November we'll open a thread and a poll where everyone will get an opportunity to place their vote based on nothing more than gut instinct for the winter ahead. There are multiple options, ranging from being 100% confident it's going to be a cold winter, down to being completely convinced it's going to be a mild one. Obviously this is all very unscientific, and just a bit of fun but we'll publish the result of each month's HO-PI index to show how the Netweather community is feeling about the upcoming winter , and then we can compare it to the reality come Spring!

It's been eagerly awaited through the summer by some, and now the time's arrived for some winter chat! (Last year's winter thread was also started on the 1st Sept, so we're on trend in case anyone is wondering). As it's very early days, it's going to be very difficult to even come close to pinning down the likely weather this winter, but that will start to change as we move through the Autumn. At this point, it's more a case of looking at what people are hoping for this winter, and chatting around that. Also, looking back we've had some notable winters in recent years, a record breaking cold December in 2010: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12119329 March 2013 was another very cold one, the second coldest in history (Ok it's not really a winter month!) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22010852 On the flip side, last winter was a mild one and the wettest ever which resulted in some really severe flooding http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26278995 Across the pond in the USA last year was the infamous 'polar vortex' winter with records broken for cold and snow http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_North_American_cold_wave So all in all, a fair bit has happened in recent winters, will 2014/15 live up to that? This thread will run through September, we'll then open a new one in October as winter draws closer...

Autumn here on Netweather tends to strike up the warm autumns/mild winters debate. This is a theory that suggests that warmer autumns are often followed by milder winters. Since this debate pops up quite a lot every autumn, I thought that I do a bit of research myself, and either prove or disprove this theory. I have taken the mean average UK temperature for every autumn and its following winter for every year since autumn 1980 and the following winter 1980-81, all the way up until our most recent pairing of autumn 2013 and the following winter 2013-14. I then plotted all of this data on a scatter graph (below). The results show that there is a slight positive correlation between the two, meaning that there is a slight tendency for a warm autumn to be followed by a milder winter and a cooler autumn to be followed by a colder winter. However I must stress that the correlation is really very weak. This is because there are many instances of the opposite occuring (ie. a warm autumn followed by a cold winter and a cool autumn being followed by a mild winter). This means that my research would suggest that a warmer autumn does slightly increase the chances of us getting a milder winter, however it is only a very, very slight increase.

Looks as though an el nino is very likely with the consistent negatives that we are recieving. You can keep an eye on the daily values here! http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

The winter forecast for 2013 is now online! There are 2 versions of the forecast available, both written by Ed O'Toole. First, the main forecast: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2013;sess= Second, the in depth and technical version: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-in-depth;sess=

Since there may be a Cold Winter will there be any cold,snowfall this winter since cornwall doesn't get a load of snowfall.

I was just thinking about my favourite season and why, and was wondering on other peoples opinions. Mine is Winter!

Hi guys, Following the discussion on here regarding the links between UK winters and the Eurasian snow buildup in autumn, I've decided to open a comparison topic. Specifically, we'll be comparing this years run up to winter with some of the previous autumn/winter data. As the weeks progress, I will add to this thread. Please contribute anything if you feel I've missed anything. Solar Situation More data plots available here. http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/sidc_graphics.php 2010 Snow & Ice 2011 Snow & Ice 2012 Snow & Ice 2013 Snow & Ice October 4th October 4th October 4th October 3rd Ice: 5,696,935 KM2 Ice: 5,045,982 KM2 Ice: 3,927,099 KM2 Ice: 5,675,521 KM2 October 27th October 27th October 27th Ice: 7,751,957 KM2 Ice: 7,688,250 KM2 Ice: 7,169,323 KM2 November 20th November 10th November 13th Ice: 9,575,789 KM2 Ice: 8,861,284 KM2 Ice: 8,714,262 KM2 November 26th November 26th November 26th Ice: 9,920,062 KM2 Ice: 10,163,067 KM2 Ice: 10,050,317 KM2 December 1st December 1st December 1st Ice: 10,281,787 KM2 Ice: 10,505,579 KM2 Ice: 10,487,669 KM2 Arctic Oscillation Links: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml Personal Thought. Looking at the IMS images, its apparent that although October 10 started off with a higher Ice Extent value, both 2011, and 2012 saw 1st December kick off ahead of 2010. Taking into account what happened in 2010, If I remember correctly, there was a SSW event 6 weeks prior to the widespread snow event. (Chiono could perhaps confirm this) and if I recall correctly, a SSW can weaken the polar vortex which could go some way to explaining why the Ice extent slowed its advance compared with both 2011 and 2012. The AO index also shows a very negative index value for the winter of 2010/11. 500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative AO So if i'm correct about there being a SSW in 2010, then coupled with a severely negative AO, then the conditions were just perfect for the snow and cold event which ensued. Throw in a spotless sun and you could say it was the 'perfect storm'.

I be happy in my lifetime.

[center]Short update can be found at the very bottom[/center] [center][size=5]Autumn 2013 Forecast[/size][/center] The forecast below is made using the CFS monthly and seasonal forecast data as well as data from Climate Simulator a program where I input data of the current climate and it calculates the temperatures of the following months. [size=5]September[/size] Temperatures - For the rest of September near to average, with Southern parts of England experiencing some brief periods of colder weather. Rainfall - Similar with the temperatures for the rest of the month average rainfall. [size=5]October[/size] Rainfall - October for most of the UK is looking above average especially for Western parts meanwhile the far East coasts may get away with average rainfall amounts. [attachment=185915:OR.png] Temperature - Overall the UK in general looks to have average temperatures but Southern parts of England may get some spells of warmer weather and the far North of Scotland some spells of colder weather. Climate Simulator backs up the CFS forecasts and gives the UK temperatures 0.3c above average. [attachment=185916:OT.png] [size=5]November[/size] Rainfall - November is expected to carry on the above rainfall amounts from October although this time its mostly England, Wales and Ireland while most of Scotland are closer to average in the North. [attachment=185917:NR.png] Temperatures - Average temperatures for the whole of the UK says the CFS but the Climate Simulator gives us 0.5c above average temperatures. Overall I believe Novembers temperatures will be mostly average but some periods of weather may bring in slightly warmer temperatures. [size=5]Monthly Pressure Patterns[/size] [size=5]October - [/size]Strong high pressure sits to our North West in the Atlantic, [attachment=185920:Preo.png] [size=5]November -[/size] Similar pressure set up to October, [attachment=185921:Pren.png] [center][size=5]Start of Winter Predictions[/size][/center] [size=5]December[/size] This isn't a actual forecast yet just a very quick look at the start of winter. Rainfall - Looking very wet across the West and average elsewhere. Temperatures - CFS goes for average temperatures and Climate Simulator 0.3c above average. [size=5]Overall -[/size] Autumn looks mostly wet and probably unsettled at times, temperatures close to average for most of the time but some mild spells of weather may make things slightly warmer than usual. Early winter looks to carry this on through being wet with around average temperatures. [center][b][size=5]Update 1st of November 2013[/size][/b][/center][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]November[/b][/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]December[/b] - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.[/font][/color] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [b]January[/b] - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.[/font][/color]