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Showing results for tags 'winter'.
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This weekend's notably cold event for mid March and now with Amber warnings from the Met Office for snow
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With a potential cold end to winter and start to spring on the horizon, here's a thread to discuss the ins and outs of that, how the latest forecasts are looking and so on. There's obviously a lot of chat in the model thread about this currently, and you can also find info about the SSW over in the strat thread. Nick has also blogged about the SSW here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming This Weekend, But What Is It & How Will It Affect Our Weather? And about the model mayhem currently being caused by it here: Sudden Stratospheric Warming Brings Weather Model Mayhem It's fair to say that confidence in the exact weather we're going to see from mid-next week onward is currently very low, but the Met Office are confident enough in the likelihood of cold weather that they've recently put out a press release: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk Winter could be set to go out with a bang it seems, but it's not nailed on, yet.....
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The Netweather Winter Forecast has been issued! The title this year, is 'A Winter On A Knife Edge' https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal Thanks to Ian Simpson (aka @Thundery wintry showers) for his efforts in putting it together. Looks like we could be in for a really interesting winter, with increasing chances of some proper cold...
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Lots happening weather wise at the moment, and lots of uncertainty as to what may happen next. One thing that is also uncertain sometimes, is what is model discussion, and what isn't. So we've made a handy guide to the model threads, and what posts should go where. Please take a look at it here, and try to use the most relevant thread for your post: As ever, please hit the report button if you spot a post which you believe may be off topic or breaking the forum guidelines in any other way. The team will deal with reports as quickly as they can. Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere
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A fresh thread, and a fresh start I hope. A worrying trend has appeared in recent days, and that's certain individuals becoming quite abusive and virtually harassing people they see as having made an incorrect assessment of the models / teleconnections at some point. We've even had a couple of incidents where people are being sent abusive pm's. This obviously isn't on, the posts on here aren't a service which can be complained about in terms of their accuracy, and no-one making a post on here should ever have to put up with abuse because of it. It's an open forum and everyone is welcome to give their opinion, as much as everyone is welcome to read those opinions and make of them what they will. At the same time though, a discussion around an opinion or even disagreement is fine, as long as it's respectful and reasonable - on both sides. Those voicing their opinion have to understand sometimes someone may disagree or challenge a view, and not take that personally. As ever, please hit the report button if you spot a post which you believe may be an issue. The team will deal with issues as quickly as they can, and when it comes to the abusive posts/pm's etc, we have already taken strong action against those posting them and will continue to do so should any other incidents occur. Interested in short-range model analyses and discussion? Head to the new short-range thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89089-short-range-model-discussion-into-2018/ Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere
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After much consideration, I figured it was better to keep the thread title as is, in the hope that we can just get on with chatting about our common interest in the forecasting models in a friendly and reasonable way, especially as Christmas is coming Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere Merry Christmas
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Here we go with a fresh model discussion thread - things are getting very interesting right now! Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models? The banter thread is for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Want to talk about the snow / cold weather in your part of the country? The regional threads are the place for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere Happy model watching
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A wintry spell in late April - not exactly what one would expect! Many places in Western Europe have experienced wintry temperatures and even snowfall, for instance in the Netherlands people could greet a wintry landscape with snow actually settling! This caused quite some traffic jams and accidents on the road. Snowy landscape in the Netherlands on the 24th of April. Source: Weeronline. Snow did not only reach the Netherlands, but also in low-lying areas of Switzerland some snow fell, although only somewhat higher up the landscape got a wintry white colour. Slide of Arctic air The main culprit of the snow can be traced down to a slide of Arctic air which has come all the way down from areas near the North Pole. Fuelled by the relatively mild waters of the North Sea, this air becomes unstable and a lot of showers and small-scale low pressure areas spin up. Couple this with the unseasonably low temperatures and the snow is there! Slide of cold Arctic air envisaged by a satellite image as of 25-04 18Z. Source: Eumetrain. The image above nicely shows the cold air reaching all the way down into Western Europe. The red colours denote polar/arctic air which is flooding down over Europe from the north. Interestingly, though, this setup has been present for a number of days. This raises the question as to what is causing this persistent northerly airflow. A real traffic jam in the atmospere For the solution we look at a more global picture of the Northern Hemisphere in the midtroposphere. And that is not a usual one to say the least. Pressure at 500 hPa and anomalies (colours) as of Monday 18Z. Source: Tropicaltidbits. The most clear feature that shows up here is very strong ridging (high pressure) at 500 hPa which extends all the way towards Greenland. This is a nice example of a block which has been present for quite some time now. This feature is what is kind of causing the atmosphere to be 'locked'; pressure systems do not move at all or barely in a couple of weeks. Think of it as a traffic jam in the atmosphere. The counterpart of the high pressure area is located over Mid-Europe, which shows itself as a persistent trough even reaching Africa. This feature is partially responsible for the cold temperatures aloft and thereby a generation of a lot of showers. But this is not where the story ends. The same image, but now with airflow direction indicated in white. Source: Tropicaltidbits. The key for the cold air at low levels (and also partially at upper levels) is that between the high pressure area near Greenland, and low pressure over Scandinavia and Central-Europe, there is a deep northerly flow which starts off near Greenland and flows down all the way towards Tunesia. More cold to come? WIll the pressure situation remain locked, and will we continue to experience a brisk northerly airflow? The high pressure area near Greenland appears to be pulling away towards Russia, but this would still cause the cold to remain entrenched over Europe with also more unsettled weather to come. So one thing is for sure: the cold is going to stay around for some time still. Impressive for April to say the least! If we would only have had this in winter...
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