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Weather Preferences

  1. There was an unusual run of notably dry Februaries in this time period. February 1929 was a notably dry month with an EWP average of only 31.5mm. It was also a very cold month, part of one of the few genuinely cold winters between 1895 and 1940. It had a C.E.T. of 0.4C. The first eleven days saw high pressure to our east gain a foothold while an increasingly severe cold pool grew over the continent. It wasn't until the 12th when winds veered east and the coldest period of the month began. While we escaped the worst of it, uppers of below -15C were marching in from the east. Your eyes don't decieve you, that is the -25C line to our east! Unsurprisingly for a dry month, the Atlantic never takes hold and we end up with battleground synoptics for the rest of the month, but mostly dry. The Met Office report for February 1929 with all figures and notable weather events (I will be posting these to save time writing): February 1930 would be even dryer with a EWP average of 26.1mm. It was also rather cold with a C.E.T. of 2.5. Unlike the previous year, it came off the back of an extremely wet period. October 1929 through January 1930 was exceptionally wet with November and December in particular being amongst the wettest ever recorded. The winter had also been very mild up to this point (5.8, 5.6), so things changed drastically. A very unsettled start but high pressure built in by the 6th and remained in situ for the rest of the month. Unlike 1929 there were no great cold pools, just one big frosty high. The Met Office report for February 1930: February 1931 would prove to be rather wet but the next one was the driest of the run and is one of the driest months ever recorded. February 1932 has an EWP average of a meagre 8.9mm. To put that into context, that's slightly drier than August 1995 (9.1mm). The winter of 1931/1932 was bizarre in that it had been very mild up until now (5.3, 6.3) but turned colder in February with a C.E.T. of 2.9. It was a very bizarre year overall with March almost 2C colder than January, a cold spring and an indifferent summer with an extreme heat-spike in August reaching 36C (1932 sounds like the long lost cousin of our current era climate!). It was also a year without a winter across NA. The month begins as it means to go on: with high pressure dominating. It's in a mild position at first but then builds into Scandinavia and we get a particularly bitter easterly spell into the 10th. After that, high pressure meanders around the country aimlessly before a second bite of the cherry at months end and while this was also very cold it was more tame than the initial easterly. The Met Office monthly report for February 1932: February 1933 would end up being very wet but the following year would see yet another bone dry February. February 1934 remarkably has an EWP of 11.9mm, just fractionally "wetter" than February 1932. The winter of 1933/1934 was exceptionally dry and came after an extremely dry year (1933 annually only has a EWP of 717.7mm) which also had a very hot summer. 1934 would also go on to be a very dry year with a hot summer of its own, a very intense drought period for the UK. The month starts with a near-miss of a cold spell in which we escape the brunt of the easterlies but still manage -10C uppers. There were some blink-and-you-miss-it-lows at times but most of the time high pressure was bloated over the continent. The month wasn't especially mild (3.8C) due to the north/south divide in temperature. It was exceptionally mild in Scotland but in the south it was rather cold due to cold nights despite mild days. Not too dissimilar to January 2022. The month ended how it began, with a cold spell, though it was a rather weak affair. Lack of cold uppers happened then too, more often that you think! The Met Office monthly report for February 1934: In contrast, the next three Februaries were all wet with February 1937 one of the wettest on record and not too far off February 2024's total.
  2. As many more will possibly see their first snow of the winter in the coming days, I was wondering what is the heaviest you've seen snow fall ideally in the UK, but globally would also be interesting to know! For me it would have to be the 29th December 2020, just before midday here. Unfortunately it melted in around 15 minutes afterwards, but it had to be close to 6-8cm per hour! if only it lasted an hour or 2 and the temperature was a degree lower from 0.7C! VID_20201229_112610347~2.mp4
  3. So I know the majority of weather enthusiasts prefer cold winters over mild. When I was a kid I loved cold and snowy weather but for the last few years I prefer mild winters. I still like walking in deep snow but I prefer mild weather in winter now, even though it’s often raining with it. The last few days it’s been dry and sunny but very cold, with temperatures only rising to 2 or 3C during the day and dropping well below freezing at night. It’s currently -4C outside right now with crystal clear skies, but I think I’d rather it was 10C with cloud and drizzle. In fact I really dislike temperatures below 10C, I just feel no desire to go outdoors when it’s in single digits and especially not when it’s below zero. Not a huge fan of the heat either, although I had a weeks holiday in the Cotswolds in early September and it was in the high 20’s and low 30’s, and although it was very hot, I still enjoyed it and would much rather have that than rain or the weather we are having now. Im not sure how anyone can prefer this current freezing weather over what we had in summer, I’d take 17C and cloud over 0C and sunny any day. Yes mild winters are boring but at least it feels more comfortable and I just really don’t like winter anymore, it’s just dark, cold and depressing. I’m much more of a mild/warm weather guy. Both 0 and 30C are uncomfortable for me, I like it best somewhere in the middle around 12 - 20°C. My favourite winter month was February 2019, with many days sunny and 13-17°C. Yes it was unseasonably warm, but I enjoyed it. December 2015 was also exceptionally mild, although it also was extremely wet in my area with really bad flooding. Tbh, I wouldn’t mind another winter like 2016-17, lots of quiet benign weather around 5-9°C. I just want to get winter over with. Spring can’t come soon enough!
  4. The whole setup at the minute looks great, but we do have to be cautious and not throw tantrums when the charts don't show Narnia. This wobbling has ALWAYS happened and ALWAYS will, it's just part of model watching, and we have to take the rough with with the smooth. One thing is almost certain, we are going to have a decent cold spell, and we'll get a whole lot more snow than last year, because in my location, we had ZERO snow.......and that is something to whinge about, not what the models are showing. So, keep your chins up and your toys in your prams
  5. The Netweather Winter Forecast, written by @Nick F is now available to read in full: Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2022-2023 | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
  6. The Netweather Winter forecast, written by @Nick F will be issued this Wednesday 23rd November at 7pm. You can read Nick's preview of it here: Preliminary thoughts for the Netweather 2022-23 Winter Forecast WWW.NETWEATHER.TV A preview of thoughts looking at the main parts of the jigsaw coming together to make the Netweather 2022-23 Winter Forecast which will be issued soon. This is not a forecast for each winter month, but a look...
  7. Ian Docwra

    Snow Moon

    Home in NE Surrey. Snow fell heavily on 24 January 2021 and the sky cleared that night to allow a waxing gibbous moon to shine brightly.

    © Ian Docwra

  8. From the album: Ian Docwra

    Our then garden in Epsom, Surrey after an exceptional snowfall in February 2009.

    © Ian Docwra

  9. Ian Docwra

    Piled High

    From the album: Ian Docwra

    Our garden when we lived in Epsom, Surrey, just after the exceptional snow of February 2009 had stopped falling.

    © Ian Docwra

  10. QBO was moderate westerly in Autumn 2010 and became borderline strong westerly during winter 2010/2011 so the weak WQBO analysis for the up coming winter is not likely to be relevant to another December 2010. It was one of the outliers in my moderate WQBO analysis of Autumn's preceding the winter CET values. Most of those options came out milder than average. Talking of the QBO I feel it is time for another update since there appears to be more developments since my last one I shall start with the QBO phase plot from NASA Singapore site 1 - The highest part of this chart is now consistently showing EQBO at 10 hpa so it is only a matter of time now before this begins to descend and as we have had no southern hemisphere SSW to mess things up this time around and no strong ENSO to throw in another issue to think about then I see no reason why the EQBO won't descend this time around 2 - The middle layer is consistently showing WQBO of varying strengths each day and just refuses to do one. It seems to the cold lovers annoyance that this winter is now going to be a definite WQBO winter thanks to the southern SSW last September messing things up 3 - The last remnants of the easterly anomaly are still clinging on at the lower end of this chart but overall these values have been getting weaker and should disappear within the next few weeks which should make way for the WQBO to move down and in turn allow the new EQBO to descend too. 4 - With the state of the plot chart I feel it won't be long before this text reads East - Descending phase once again unless there's another twist in the tale of the QBO this year Next I will show the QBO progression chart This chart shows what the cold winter lovers feared and that was a quick return to the WQBO once more. However the good news is that we appear to be rapidly progressing through this WQBO and it would appear that this WQBO could end up just as short as the mini EQBO did earlier in the year and a bit weaker than average too but no where near as weak as the EQBO was. The next chart is the 10 to 100 hpa chart 1 - This shows up clearly how the EQBO appears to be back in business at 10 hpa now with consistent greens and blues showing up at this level now. It also appears to be gaining in strength too but is still some way off where it was at late last year in terms of strength at 10 hpa. Hopefully it will begin to descend soon but maybe a short delay wouldn't be a totally bad thing as it would increase the chances of winter 2021/22 being an EQBO winter rather than a EQBO to WQBO transitioning one which would be better for cold chances 2 - The annoying lingering WQBO still looks to be expanding both upwards and downwards and some of the yellow colours are beginning to show themselves in the speed chart. This no doubt shows speeds in excess of 10 m/s and strong WQBO values being achieved on some days. Not a good sign for winter 2020/21 if you want cold weather unless we get another December 2010 3 - For a while a week or two ago it looked like the easterly anomaly was fast running out of steam when you see that big brown area that suddenly descended into this region but it looks like it is making a bit of a comeback. Are we seeing another disturbance but this time down between 70 and 100 hpa which could explain why the WQBO is expanding upwards as well as downwards. I hope another EQBO disruption events ISN'T going to happen again, surely not another one. The final chart I want to show is the 3 hpa to 100 hpa chart 1 - The first of the two main reasons I included this chart today is what can be seen at 10 hpa. Notice how the next darkest green area has begun to appear at 10 hpa which is the 15 - 20 m/s colour. This shows that the EQBO is continuing to build at 10 hpa but like with the last chart this is still no where near what the EQBO reached during last year when the 30 - 35 m/s colours appeared at 10 hpa for a time. Still time for the EQBO to roughly double in strength at this height then before it descends. 2 - Not good news for winter 2020/21 anymore with the obviously strengthening WQBO on this chart. It has been descending clearly at the base but refuses to let go of its grip on levels below 15 hpa. Hope there's some movement of the WQBO downwards before the end of the autumn at least so we can then average out as a weak WQBO in the autumn which based on my analysis came out as the coldest option overall for the following winter CET 3 - The bad news is that the QBO at 3hpa didn't stay easterly for very long and has in fact turned back westerly again. Hope this doesn't descend so rapidly that it neutralises the EQBO at 10 hpa and pushes us into an even longer period of WQBO at 30 hpa. Then again maybe the change to WQBO high up could help push the EQBO down towards 30 hpa and start us off on the next EQBO sooner rather than later
  11. Hi I had a question about Freezing fog that I don't seem to be able to find the awnsers for by google searching. Its my favourite type of weather phenomenon but I don't get to see it very often in my part of the world (Thames Valley/Marlborough Downs) We get plenty of fog here, autumn and winter, and there are many frost pockets and hollows but getting frost and fog at the same time always seems to be rare. I know freezing fog is brought about obviously by sub zero temperatures and areas of clear high pressure in winter, by why is that some clear some frosty highs produce freezing fog occaisonally while many more usually don't? What are the exact conditions needed for it to form other than clear highs and very low temps? During December 2010 we had almost 3 weeks of lying snow under both cloudy and clear conditions and freezing fog formed on only one of those nights. It was neither the mildest or the coldest night either. I see a lot of people mention on forums when looking at certain charts that due to what they see, freezing fog could definitely be a risk. What is it about a particular chart that makes a cold frosty high more likely to produce FF than another? It would be a great help if anyone could explain the partiuclar conditions that create the right sort of environment for FF to occur locally. Does it have to do with relative humidity? direction of source of cold air? How moist the ground is? Thank you for any helpful explanation.
  12. Looking towards the Howgills, Whinash Ridge and the Yorkshire Dales from Cunswick Scar in the Lake District. Today's snow showers from the NE didn't get any further west than the Howgills. What is interesting is how the altitude has made such a difference to where the snow is lying. The River Kent valley is green whilst the surrounding hills are white. The snow event earlier this week was marginal which is so often the case here, the influence of Morecambe Bay is strong.

    © Kate Willshaw

  13. Good morning all! Still cant get into my old account but here are some photos of the past 3 or 4 days here in Latvia. Some from Riga and the rest from rural Latvia in Berzpils (25-30km from Russian border). Will be here until 1st and flying back in the evening. Currently snowing lightly although not on radar but a good 6 to 10 inches... perhaps more in places. Expecting a little more snow over the next couple of days and temperature may get above 0c so may see a little snow melting but currently -3.5c. May add some more photos in the coming days. Have a very merry Christmas one and all! Blake
  14. BruenSryan

    28 Feb 2018

    © Sryan Bruen

  15. BruenSryan

    28 Feb 2018

    © Sryan Bruen

  16. From the album: Bempton

    Saw icicles here in 2010, but very unusual this late in the season
  17. This weekend's notably cold event for mid March and now with Amber warnings from the Met Office for snow
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