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This warm September is good cause to make a thread regarding this unusual pair of months, and why those wanting a cold October need not despair! After an indifferent summer, Sept. 1895 was a very warm month with a C.E.T. of 15.4. It was warmer than July! Nights were close to normal but by day, Sept. 1895 ranks 2nd hottest, only beaten by 2006. It was also a very dry month with an average rainfall of 23.3mm. Much of the south of England had barely any rainfall and most fell during thunderstorms on the 6th/7th. Unsurprisingly, it was also a very sunny month. Many stations recorded their sunniest September on record at the time. Hastings recorded 171% average sunshine. A warm pattern is established very early on with a hot push of southerly winds on the 2nd. The very few traces of rain fell courtesy of weak pressure associated with hot southeasterly winds on the 6th. This feature was so weak that by the following evening, pressure had already rose, thereby killing off any thunderstorms. I can't find any reports on any individual storms but apparently they were juicy! A briefly more unsettled period followed but high pressure was never far away from the southeast. High pressure was dominant again by the 15th and was going nowhere fast. Upper air temperatures fluctuated during this period but days stayed warm. A brief spell of colder weather, albiet still dry, came on the 20th. This was the coldest part of the month with frosts in the Scottish mountains. The coldest weather was very shortly followed by the warmest. September from this point was entirely HP dominated with very warm southerly winds. There were some unusually hot temperatures recorded, record breaking for the time, with temperatures in excess of 27C recorded in many places. In some areas, the month was over 3 degrees above the then-average. The comes October... October, 1895 was an exceptionally cold October, being one of the coldest on record with a CET of 7.1. Rainfall was unremarkable at 113.3mm. The month was mostly just very cold, with no remarkable falls of rain or gales reported. Despite the cold, sunshine was once again above average, notably so in places. However, the month began very warm with the remnants of Septembers heat. 25C was recorded at Hillington on the 1st. An active cold front swept in on the 2nd, probably accompanied by heavy rain, gales and thunder. This would have felt very shocking after a month of fine weather. It then stayed generally very unsettled. It wasn't until the 16th that the true nature of the month came to be, as cold air swept south, albeit within high pressure. By the 22nd, strong northern blocking and low pressure in the Azores let very cold air in from the Artic region. From the 22nd to the 29th, snowfall was widespread, particularly in the north and west. Temperatures were very cold, particularly at night, and on the 23rd/24th and the 28th-30th temperatures got down as low as -8C at Llandovery, -7C at Blackpool and Carlisle. Amazingly, the following October would be colder, but that autumn deserves its own thread which I may do next. While November, 1895 wasn't a particularly interesting month, it's notable for being warmer than the preceding October. It's generally a mild and wet month with lots of low pressure and SW winds, but it has a very short but fairly intense cold snap on the 24th with a great deal of snow. It has a CET of 7.5 and an average of 122.2mm The following winter of 1895/1896 turned out to be a mild but exceptionally dry winter.

If you had to choose between it being, say, 17° and Partly Cloudy with a stiff westerly breeze, or 22° and Overcast with light winds, which would you choose and why? Do you prefer it how it's been this week (when its not been raining) ie cool, sunny, breezy or how it was at the start of August (warm but mostly cloudy)? A lot of people on here seem to be more bothered about temperatures than sunshine totals, but I've seen a couple of people complaining about the apparent lack of sunshine in London this summer, despite it being quite a warm summer temperature-wise. However, in real life, people seem to be more bothered about the sunshine than the apparent temperature. Take today for example - it was very cool this morning in Manchester but I saw lots of people in shorts and t-shirts. Thursday here was mostly sunny but quite windy and very cool and just 15°C. Yet I saw quite a few in summer clothes. Yet I remember a week last Friday when it was warm but cloudy and wet, I saw quite a few in thick coats despite the temperature being above 20°C! There's also been many days when it's been cool temps but when the suns come out people have gone "the suns come out, it's boiling now" but when it's been warm temps but overcast people have complained about the gloom. I think I prefer it warm and cloudy over cool and sunny, because you can wear light clothing without being reliant on the sun for warmth. Whereas if it's cool and sunny, and you're only wearing a t-shirt and shorts because of the sun, as soon as the sun goes in or the wind gets up, you're going to feel a chill. Also, cloud is good at holding heat in at night, which means that temperatures don't suddenly plummet as soon as the sun goes down. A rather odd question I know, but I'd be interested to know which people prefer.

Good Morning all I thought i would be nice to have a model thread looking for the first signs of warmth as we fast approach spring, For those who are a bit fed up flogging dead horses in the winter model thread this room is for those who wish to hang out on the dark side and partake in a bit of anti winter talk. PS its not a winter is over moan thread but for serious discussion & views on the next few months weather prospects. Enjoy LO

April 2011 for me was the best spring month, in my experience. It is currently the warmest April on record with a CET of 11.8°C. It came four years after April 2007, which was also a very warm month with a CET of 11.2°C and I still think it's unbelieveable that that month was bettered, especially in such a short space of time! April 2011 was also the sunniest April on record, only recently beaten by April 2015, and the driest April on record too. It was a month that wouldn't look out of place in July.

Yes I know it's only mid-April, but I think it's a good time to start asking "what do you want for summer" as late April and May can often be quite summery. You can select more than one option in the poll, just in case you want a few weather types. For example, I chosen heatwaves and thunderstorms - 'cause let's face it, it's what a summer should be!

I was just thinking and i have never really looked up about it but is there anyway to predict a hot summer? it will be nice !! love the summer and im getting bored of this winter already.

[b]No this isn't an entry about the fall of social taboos! [/b][color=#000080]In fact I am talking about fahrenheit! This week parts of the north-east will experience temperatures in the mid 60s fahrenheit (17-19c). It doesn't sound impressive, but bear in mind temperatures have struggled to get past 12c during the last few weeks, and the brisk northerly winds have made it feel like February![/color] [color=#000080]Happily the weather improves this week, and although those of us on the east coast will see more cloud and lower temperatures, it will nontheless be a substantial improvement. What happens after this weeks warmth is anyones guess, but a return to the cold dross we have seen for most of May looks unlikely, thankfully.[/color] [color=#800000]On to sport, and a big congratulations to York City for their [url="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18049175"]play-off win[/url] over Luton Town yesterday. York now return to the football league after an 8-year absence, and while you have to feel sorry for poor ol' Luton, it is terrific to see York back where they belong.[/color] [color=#800000]Plenty of golf action occured yesterday, with the booming Belgian Nicolas Colsaerts [url="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/golf/story/2012-05-20/volvo-world-match-play-championship-nicolas-colsaerts-beats-graeme-mcdowell/55093180/1"]beating[/url] Graeme McDowell in the Volvo Matchplay Final. Colsaerts takes home his biggest paycheque to date and moves to just outside the top 30 in the world rankings. Meanwhile, Jason Dufner [url="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/golf/2018252094_golf21.html"]won[/url] the corresponding PGA Tour event in Americaland.[/color] [color=#006400]On a wildlife note, it has been more than a little disappointing on the insect front. I still haven't seen one damselfly or dragonfly adult yet, and although I did see a few butterflies around during late March and early April, the first (and in some cases only) generations on the wing have really [url="http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/18101581"]suffered[/url] in the brutal weather. Happily, birdlife hasn't suffered too much, with plenty of swallows, swifts, house and sand martins about - great to see![/color] [b]That's all from me for now, thanks for reading[/b] [img]http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/dirol.gif[/img]

As time goes on I am fearing that the Model Output Discussion is going to degenerate into the usual summer fare, where the UK's weather is over-simplistically divided into two types: "settled" aka "good", and "unsettled" aka "bad". The main problem is that the desire for "settled" weather, for most people, is tied in with images of clear blue skies, warm sunshine by day, and evenings spent in the garden with the barbeque going. Of course, high pressure can bring such weather, and many of us will have memories of that phenomenal spell at the back end of March this year. [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120120326.gif"]http://www.wetterzen...00120120326.gif[/url] But in fact we only need to think back to the last third of July 2011 for an illustration of how we can be "bitten" by being too simplistic about this association. The forecast models showed a fairly sustained settled period with high pressure close by to the west, and the model output thread was buzzing with posts insisting that we were in for a lot of barbeque-type weather. In reality, though, for many of us the spell turned out dry and cloudy with a chilly northerly wind which left those BBQs gathering dust indoors. The problem is that for high pressure to bring us "BBQ weather", it really has to be in the right place. Here's one synoptic chart: [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910515.gif"]http://www.wetterzen...00119910515.gif[/url] Let's be brutally honest, how many people would look at a chart like that and not think, "sustained settled spell- barbeque here we come"? In fact May 1991 was one of the dullest Mays on record as well as one of the driest and most settled. Another stark counterexample occurred during June 1988. This was an often-forgotten warm sunny month across much of Scotland (leading into that infamous washout July) but also an often-forgotten dry cloudy one across most parts of England, characterised by high pressure in the wrong place: [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00119880610.gif"]http://www.wetterzen...00119880610.gif[/url] [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00119880625.gif"]http://www.wetterzen...00119880625.gif[/url] Also, you don't actually need a sustained strong area of high pressure to bring this sort of "barbeque weather". The last week of June 2010, for instance, had a lot of this type of weather, but was only weakly anticyclonic: [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100623.gif"]http://www.wetterzen...00120100623.gif[/url] And on relatively rare occasions, you don't even need any high pressure at all. I remember that in Tyneside (where in some summers, like last year's, we struggle to justify getting the BBQ out at all) I had a nice BBQ on the evening of the 4th July 1999: [url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990704.gif"]http://www.wetterzen...00119990704.gif[/url] ...and how many people would see a chart like that and think, "oh dear, dull wet unsettled dross"? That spell in early July 1999 turned out generally warm and sunny but with sharp thundery downpours, so as long as you timed your BBQ well you were okay. In fact it isn't all that unusual for the most "settled" spell of a month to end up being the cloudiest, if the unsettled weather is mainly bright and showery and the settled weather has high pressure in the wrong place. The dullest spell of this April so far was the relatively quiet one over Easter when high pressure (in the wrong place) ridged across from the west. It can even happen, more rarely, during a generally dull unsettled month (the dullest spell of August 2008, for many of us, was actually the relatively warm settled one near the end). Some of it probably stems from how we were brought up. I know that when I was at school, we were taught, "high pressure is settled (good) weather, low pressure is unsettled (bad) weather". I realise that, as a big fan of convective type weather, I am always going to be less enthusiastic than most others about sustained spells of high pressure (which have a habit of being convection-free). However, that consideration shouldn't affect the above analysis- I've deliberately looked at it from a "hoping for warm dry sunny BBQ weather" perspective, and shown how flawed/over-simplistic it is even from that perspective.