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Showing results for tags 'southern indian ocean'.
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"DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO WASH OUT THE ALREADY INTENSE SYSTEM AND KEEPS THE TRACK HEADING TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF STILL INDICATES TC 19S WILL HAVE A SLOWER TRACK SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE LATER 96-120 TAUS. THE ALTERNATE GFS SCENARIO INDICATES A DEEPER TROUGH AND TURNS TC 19S SHARPLY TO THE EAST AT TAU 96, CREATING A NEAR BIFURCATION WITHIN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS." JTWC
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- southern indian ocean
- fabien
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Now Severe Tropical Storm Freddy is about to make landfall over Mozambique, an area already flooded and damaged from its rainy season, hampered by ruined infrastructure where cholera is on the rise and has areas of conflict. Cyclone Freddy hit Madagascar this week but wasn't as impactful as previous cyclones in this region but Freddy has travelled an awful long way and now has the highest ACE value for the southern ocean (records from 1980). https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/11841-long-lasting-cyclone-freddy-leaves-madagascar-for-mozambique Latest humanitarian report from Mozambique by UN Mozambique: Severe Tropical Storm Freddy and Floods - Flash Update No.4 (as of 23 February 2023) - Mozambique | ReliefWeb RELIEFWEB.INT Situation Report in English on Mozambique about Education, Health, Epidemic, Flood and more; published on 23 Feb 2023 by OCHA
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- madagascar
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Finally, another tropical storm forms in this record breakingly quiet southern indian ocean season. Emeraude is located in the central/eastern portion of the basin, well west of Cocos Island. The storm has well developed banding features surrounding a fairly intense core of convection. This is a sign of a healthy and maturing storm. JTWC initiated advisories on ther system at 9pm past night, with winds of 40kts. I suspect this will rise at the next update (9am). Some fairly rapid intensification seems likely given the structure of Emeraude and the low shear and good outflow it is experiencing. The storm is expected to drift east, then south, then back to the west in the coming days as the steering environment shifts between ridges to the north and south. Emeraude is not expected to affect land, which is just as well as it is expected to become quite intense.
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A new tropical cyclone has formed just south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Deep convection is persisting over the core of the 35kt system, and convective banding is becoming better defined. Shearis low and waters warm, however, the air is a little dry, and this could begin to interfere with development in the next few days. Still, 05S should strengthen modestly over the next few days, before the southerly track takes 05S over colder waters and much higher shear. 05S should remain east of La Reunion.
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Another tropical cyclone has formed in the South Indian Ocean, this time about 400 miles northeast of Mauritius. 22S has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, but has yet to be named by MeteoFrance, though I suspect this will happen soon. Deep convection is expanding over the LLCC, and conditions ahead look favourable for further strengthening. 22S is being steered west-northwestwards along the north side of the subtropical ridge to the south. This ridge is expected to weaken, and a new ridge is expected to develop to the northeast in a few days. This is expected to drive 22S southwards then southeastwards in a couple days time. This track puts Rodrigues in the path of 22S later down the line, though, as ever, the track forecast is subject to change this far out.
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Moderate Tropical Storm Haliba has formed off the coast of Eastern Madagascar, with winds of 35kts. Haliba is a tiny storm, with a compact area of deep convection persisting over the small LLC. Conditions are favourable for some intensification, as shear is reletively low and outflow is currently good, but tiny systems such as Haliba are prone to even moderate amounts of shear, so there is a chance the system won't survive if shear rises. An equatorial ridge is the primary steering influence, and should steer Haliba southeastwards over the coming days, towards La Reunion, and eventually cooler water which should induce weakening and dissipation in a few days time.
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JTWC has initiated advisories on a system in the Mozambique Channel. 15S has winds of 35kts. The cyclone is under moderate to strong shear, which is displacing convection west of the LLCC. Shear is not expected to ease significantly, meaning strengthening should only be modest over the system's lifetime. 15S is forecast to track westwards towards Mozambique along the northern periphery of a narrow ridge to the south. This ridge is expected to ease away eastwards in a day or two, reversing 15S' track, sending the cyclone back east towards Madagascar, where an eventual landfall is expected.
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A tropical low has formed in the Indian Ocean putting the island of Rodrigues under the spotlight again. However, it is not expected to directly impact the island. At 0600 UTC position South 14.0 East 74.9, central pressure 1002 hPa, movement south west at 5 knots, wind speed (10 minute) 25 knots. Global Models 0000z 20150223 RMSC La Reunion track map 0600 UTC 20150223
