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Here ye go scallywags, so Christmas just round the corner with a possible N/NW incursion soon. Discuss.

Okerly dokerly, here's a new one for you all.....just over 24 hours to go to the big one, so keep it on topic please! old thread here -------->

Okey dokey then, a new thread for today's fun & games, so carry on here please! Old thread here --------->

Ok, a fresh thread with a plea for constructive posting. By all means, discuss all things weather related to our region, but remember that we have no control over the weather yet do have control over our emotions when posting....ta! Old thread here ----->

Time for the first major 'snow' spell of the winter, with forecasts going for snow from the west, north, east and maybe even south in the upcoming week, and with that in mind, it's time for a new thread just for the cold for those that say 'tar', 'pet', 'howay' and such colloquialisms. Be nice, keep on topic and gawk at the lamppost. Previous thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75193-far-north-of-england-regional-discussion/

Well the cold air has arrived. But will everyone have their fill of snow before it leaves? Find out here. Please stay on topic. No moaning, sniping, off topic posts, will it snow type posts, IMBYism, trolling. Thanks.

Righty O, please carry on here Old thread ------------------------->

New thread here folks and please keep on topic as much as possible. Thanks and good luck.

Stats from last year's winter: Winter 2011/12 October: 1 frost November: 2 frosts December: 3 frosts, 1 morning of very wet snow January: 7 frosts February: 11 frosts, 3 snowfalls, max depth: 14.5cm. 8 days of laying snow Very one sided winter but with an excellent two week spell at the end of January/ start of February.

Like many forecasts, my forecast for December started off well then veered rather wide of the mark. [quote]Changeable and generally cold, some snowfalls During December 2012, the jet stream will be tracking from north-west to south-east over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe for most of the month, and this will enable a succession of northerly and north-easterly outbreaks to affect the British Isles. It won't be as intensely cold as December 2010 was, but it will be cold enough for snow at times, particularly over the north and east of Britain but less so in the west. Following two cold bright days and then a milder interlude on the 3rd with some sunshine and a few showers in the west, another northerly outbreak will arrive on the 4th/5th December. A wintry mix of showery precipitation will spread southwards on the 4th, particularly affecting northern and central parts of England, though snow will mainly be confined to high ground. On the 5th most places will be cold, dry and sunny, but sleet and snow showers will affect eastern coastal counties with snow generally from Teesside northwards. Between the 6th and 8th December another low pressure system will slide south-eastwards, and will bring an active belt of rain (preceded by a brief fall of snow in eastern Scotland and north-east England) on the 6th, which will aggravate any flooding problems left over from November's rain. The rain will clear away southwards early on the 7th, with some possible snow on its northern flank, but the wintry showers that will follow behind into eastern areas on the 7th/8th will generally produce rain/sleet at low levels and snow on hills. Another depression will slide south-eastwards between the 9th and 12th and this low is associated with considerable uncertainty- the weather during the following week of the month will be strongly dependent on its precise track. A belt of rain and strong winds is expected, followed by another northerly/north-easterly outbreak with sunny intervals and wintry showers. Temperatures will be rather below average but not exceptionally so, and towards midmonth a north-easterly type is expected to prevail with high pressure extending from Iceland to Scandinavia. It will be generally dry and sunny in the west, while eastern areas will have some sunny intervals mixed with wintry showers, mostly falling as a sleety mix near the east coast but with snow inland. Around the 15th-18th low pressure will start to attack from the south-west which will eventually result in milder air coming up from the south, but not before many of us see some sleet and snow on the northern flank of the weather systems. The Midlands and central and western parts of northern England will be most prone to snow, while eastern coastal areas will mostly see rain due to the winds off the comparatively warm North Sea. The last third of the month is somewhat uncertain, as we will most likely see a burst of polar air coming down from the north around the 20th of the month, while depressions will continue to take a southerly track. Thus, a cold snap is likely shortly before Christmas, with north-eastern districts most prone to snow showers, while southern areas will be prone to belts of wintry precipitation associated with lows passing by to the south. It is hard to place much confidence on the chances of a white Christmas at this stage but the wintry spell may hang on for long enough to give some places a white Christmas, more likely the further north-east you are. A milder, changeable south to south-westerly type is expected to finally establish towards the end of the month. Overview Notably mild Decembers have been rare in recent years- the last one was way back in 1994 in the south, and 1988 in the north. This December won't be breaking that run, though nor will it be quite as cold as December 2010- temperatures will be about 2 to 2.5C down on the 1981-2010 average over most of the country, with a Central England Temperature of 2.4C expected. Much of northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland and south-west England, however, will only be 1 to 2C short of average. Rainfall during December 2012 will mostly be below the long-term average, though with considerable regional variation. Western Scotland and north-west England will have the largest shortages, of 50% or more, but some parts of eastern and southern England will have slightly above average rainfall, and heavy rainfall in the second week of the month may cause further flooding issues in south-west England. Averaged nationally the shortfall will be aruond 20-30%. It will be a sunny December over most of northern and western Britain, with excesses of 50% or more over much of Ireland, western and northern Scotland, Wales, and western England. However, eastern and southern England, together with south-eastern Scotland, will only have slightly above-average sunshine. Averaged nationally sunshine will be about 30% above average. [/quote] The first 10 days of the forecast went pretty well in my opinion, but after that it went downhill. There was strong ensemble support for the link-up between the Siberian and Icelandic highs after the 10th which would have produced an east to north-easterly blast with sunshine and snow showers, perhaps a sleety mix near east-facing coasts and mostly dry in sheltered western areas. It would also have delayed the return of the Atlantic. However, in reality the Siberian high stayed put and the Icelandic high threw up a weak ridge down to Britain, giving a few dry cold sunny days and then a fast Atlantic breakdown. As an aside, I remember a couple of comments talking of a fast breakdown being a case of greatest risk/greatest reward. Whenever I see that phrase it always seems that the "greatest reward" involves, at best from a snow lover's perspective, a limited area of the UK having a shot at a major snowstorm like the one that hit the south-west in February 1978 or the Midlands one on 8 December 1990, while the rest of us make do with a brief snow-to-rain event. Mid-December showed us the other side of the coin- the breakdown was so rapid that most of us just saw rain. My forecast for around the 17th-20th fell into line with what actually happened, but then the trough in the eastern North Atlantic proved far more persistent than I had predicted (though I sensed that there was always a possibility of this- I just didn't consider it very likely). As a result there was no northerly pre-Christmas and a traditional mild west to south-westerly type increasingly became established towards the month's end. As a result of the greater Atlantic influence, mean temperatures were a couple of degrees higher than I predicted, rainfall was markedly higher, and sunshine totals were lower, though the sunny first half more than counterbalanced the dull second half in most parts of the UK. In the end, the forecast from the 11th onwards was pretty inaccurate, though in my defence, most forecasts got heavily de-railed this month.

Ok new thread here folks. Fingers crossed for your perfect winter and plenty of snow.

It's been snowing a bit. The difference in two weeks is stunning, images taken a week apart from 22nd Nov to today (6th Dec) using the Avoriaz Webcam :

As you can see, things were marginal and wet at around 14:00 this afternoon: Then came this beast of a snow shower at 15:30! There's a good 3 inches of snow on the lawn now and I can't see it melting until the rain, sleet and snow mix arrives tomorrow. I love the North Sea! P.S. sorry about the poor quality!

I thought I would post a brief look at one aspect of Nov/Dec 2010, the record breaking cold spell that will remain a 'one-off' within all of our lives. Obviously we know what happened, but put simply, after the onslaught of very cold weather in the final week of November and first week of December, there was a brief rest-bite around the 10th to the14th; this milder spell was almost like the country surfacing for air before the cold air tightened its grip further; after this slightly milder period, the cold air dived back in across the UK from the North East until the close of the year. Okay, so the focus of what im trying to get at here is; This winter has been very very boring. I often check the GFS for signs of cold snowy weather, and i suspect many others do at this time of year, but even the charts past 192hrs+ haven't indicated much potential this year. So, what did the GFS charts hold for Nov/Dec 2010 7 days out? What did the GFS ensembles read 7 days out? Firstly, a brief look at the start of the cold spell: On 19th Nov, i took a screen grab of what the GFS was predicting for the coming Thursday 25th Nov (144hrs+). This 18z run really did start it all off- the cold weather plummeting down from Scandinavia was almost in the reliable time frame: So what happened? Well 5 days later i took a screen grab of the day (Thurs 25th) obviously this time it was a mere 24hrs away....it shows that the GFS was pretty accurate on its previous forecast... Focusing on the 10th Dec onwards, I took a couple more screen grabs from my phone while browsing the ensemble charts. The 850 temp ensembles (Using Cambridgeshire as the control point): On December the 9th the ensembles indicated a slight increase in temperatures (850's) between the 10th to the 14th, with a noticeable cold spell lasting to the 25th Dec. What is amazing here is that the mean (red line) was forecast to stay below -5 for over a week: I then took this screen grab 5 days later. As you can see, the consistency is still there, with the mean line still below -5 for the period: So, in summary: If cold weather is on the way, then i tend to look at the ensembles first. If the 850's 'mean line' is dropping away, and consistently (run after run) then i start to get interested. Obviously the operational and control charts are important, but the ensembles above clearly show the consistency and confidence of the GFS when something special may be on the way. Will that happen this winter? Paul

Please discuss the upcoming cold snap in this thread

Hi. I’m an Italian boy. I live in San Biagio, a little village between Forlì and Faenza (near Bologna and Rimini), in the Po valley (32 m – 1261 inch), in the North of the Italy. From 01/31/12 to 02/14/12 there was a wave of frost and a lot of snow. In the Forlì’s province has been beaten the record of 1929. There was also need the intervention of snowmobiles to free the city. The drifts of snow came up to the first floor windows. Here the total accumulation (all the follow place are in the plain): San Biagio: 160 cm (63 inch); Forlì: 170 cm (67 inch); Cesena: 200 cm (79 inch); In the hills (300 m of altitude – 11820 inch) there’re more of 300 cm (118 inch), also 400 cm (158 inch) of snow. The temperatures were always below zero for 7 days in San Biagio and, the 02/14/12, the minimum temperature has been-19,2°c (-4°F). Here the photos. PS: I apologize for my bad English. San Biagio (RA): 01/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. San Biagio (RA) - il mio giardino: 01/02/12. San Biagio (RA) - il mio giardino: 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. Carrelli della spesa. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12. Forlì (FC): 02/02/12. Forlì (FC): 01/02/12 (non sono mie foto ma di Alfista Legend). Forlì (FC): 01/02/12 (non è una mia foto ma di Alfista Legend). Il tetto di Casa mia a San Biagio (RA) il 04/02/12. Villagrappa (FC): 04/02/12. Non si vede la distinzione tra campi, canale e strada. Castrocaro (FC): 04/02/12. Castrocaro (FC): 04/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 05/02/12. Forlì (FC): 05/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 07/02/12. Forte scaccianeve. San Biagio (RA): 11/02/12. In partenza dentro la bufera. Cosina (RA): 11/02/12. Una cascata di neve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Strada del centro in versione "paesino d'alta montagna". Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Scaccianeve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Scaccianeve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Strade del centro sommerse di neve. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Vento violento. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Vento violento. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Auto sommersa. Forlì (FC): 11/02/12. Bufera. San Biagio (RA): 11/02/12. Davanti alla porta di casa mia, nonostante fosse sotto vento e avessi spalato poche ore prima... Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Vigili del fuoco di Rovereto. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Sembra una stradina di montagna. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Auto sommerse. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Auto sommerse. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Tetti stracolmi. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Una strada... San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Il tetto di casa mia sommerso. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Parcheggio sommerso. Forlì (FC): 12/02/12. Parcheggio sommerso. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Il mio giardino. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Il mio giardino. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Accumuli eolici. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Io! San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Non sapevamo più dove metterla! San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Igloo in giardino. San Biagio (RA): 12/02/12. Aprendo la porta finestra di casa mia... Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 265 m.: 12/02/12. Carpena (FC): 12/02/12. Accumuli paurosi sui tetti! La nevicata dal satellite il 14/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 14/02/12. Temepratura minima di -19,2°c. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Castiglione (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. Reti antigrandine rotte. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=23 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=24 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=25 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=27 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=28 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=29 Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 122 m.: 12/02/12. Cusercoli (FC) - 265 m.: 12/02/12. Carpena (FC): 12/02/12. Accumuli paurosi sui tetti! La nevicata dal satellite il 14/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 14/02/12. Temepratura minima di -19,2°c. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. Castiglione (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. Reti antigrandine rotte. Forlì (FC): 16/02/12. San Biagio (RA): 16/02/12. http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=23 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=24 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=25 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=26 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=27 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=28 http://geloneveromagna.altervista.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=29