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Found 9 results

  1. Hi everyone, new topic for the 2024 US tornado season. Yesterday the first us tornado of the year struck Fort Lauderdale in southern Florida likely causing EF0-EF1 damage. 2024 will be an interesting year, looking ahead we seem to stay in EL Nino till around March/April before transitioning into a neutral state by May, could even be in a La Nina by the end of June, this will have a large impact on severe weather positioning within the US. Many believe the US will have a close to average tornado year with the most tornadoes being either in the southern plains or the deep south depending on jet positioning. Something i dont like at the moment is the state of drought over the US southwest, especially New Mexico. This drought will lead to a stronger EML, could be a problem for any outbreaks across the plains, however outbreaks within the deep south do seem to benefit from stronger EMLs. Andrew Shearer on twitter has a good thread on predictions for the season, predicting above average for south east but below for the plains. On the other hand, Reed Timmer believes the southern plains will be more active. Regardless, will be interesting to see how the season plays out, if that drought can be slightly relieved ill be much more confident in an above average plains season. Anyways, it does seem like the first potential significant outbreak of the season is setting up across the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. The NWS SPC has issued an enhanced risk with a 10% hatched tornado risk area and a 30% hatched wind risk. The spc discussion mentions a further upgrade to probabilities should confidence increase, however questions about storm mode, temperatures, dewpoints, low level lapse rates and morning convection still remain. A QLCS with significant wind gusts is very likely with the potential for rare strong QLCS tornadoes. If discrete supercells are able to sustain themselves then a violent tornado cannot be ruled out. The Helicity across the environment is insane even for second season outbreaks, widely 600+ across warm sector. Low level jet absolutely cranking, 90 knots Bulk shear also very high. Anyone chasing storms will likely have only one choice, storm motion will be very quick, pretty impossible to catch up to. The only good thing is the warm sector will be relatively small. Very lucky this isnt March or April, this would of gone high risk. Profile taken from near Houma, Louisiana. Demonstrates the low floor, high ceiling of this event. On the one hand a saturated profile with unfavourable LLLRs will decrease tornado chances, on the other an insanely good hodograph combined with 700+!!! effective SRH. Knowing that the NAM 3km underdoes surface temps and other models do seem to struggle with winter environments I am concerned about a potential significant outbreak. The deciding factor will likely be morning convection and how it affects the environment. Environment continues throughout the night, these are 6am EST soundings from near the Florida Panhandle border. 874 effective helicity is just beyond insane, last time i saw that much was the April 27th 2011 super outbreak, thankfully its winter and the warm sector is very small. Still with soundings like these QLCS tornadoes are very likely, any embedded supercell needs to be watched. Something that keeps standing out to me is the high 3cape levels, we know that strong 3cape helps efficiently tilt any spin (look at the profiles for the tornado in Manchester a few weeks back) having 3cape in excess of 100 in this sort of environment with this much shear is going to be a big time problem.
  2. The new service to mobiles and tablets will be tested on Sunday 23rd april 2023 another way to receive UK warnings about the most serious incidents flooding Wildfires severe weather Emergency Alerts - another way to receive UK warnings WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Emergency Alerts about the most serious weather conditions, severe flooding or major wildfires will be sent to mobile phones and tablets in the UK. There will be a test of the service on Sunday April 23rd.
  3. I've just written a blog hopefully explaining more about how the Met Office create their weather warnings and how the 3 levels now include likelihood of severe weather and the possible impacts. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6466;sess= Did you know this about the impacts? Is this the right way to go for the public? With this explanation do you feel the warnings are now more helpful to you? The Matrix is now a key part of the warning, but is there anyway to show high impact, lower likelihood or medium likelihood of low impact event from just the 3 colours?
  4. From the album: Weather Studios

    A double strike of lightning just to the right of our vehicle as the most dominant storm in the area approached from ahead. This was taken just outside the town of Floydada in Texas where we pulled over in a lay-by and let the storm pass over us.

    © Weather Studios

  5. From the album: Weather Studios

    The last storm cell in a line of four during a memorable evening in Russell county, Kansas. Several chasers intercepted a long lived tornado underneath this storm but we couldn't turn down the opportunity to watch from further afar and capture some of the prolific lightning from this storm.

    © Weather Studios

  6. From the album: Weather Studios

    As this supercell storm neared the town of Piedmont, Oklahoma it joined up with another storm in the area and became a monster supercell. We were managed to keep in front of this storm and had just seconds to capture the amazing structure before the outflow winds hit from the leading edge of the storm.

    © Weather Studios

  7. From the album: Weather Studios

    The supercell storm near Piedmont, Oklahoma, that we'd been tracking from initiation, took on the form of the foreboding 'mothership' structure. Tried as it might, the storm seemed just fractionally too high to produce a tornado, but the mobile tornado sirens were issued just in case.

    © Weather Studios

  8. This one is for those of you who use twitter - you can now tweet about any severe weather you spot using the hashtag #ukweatheralert and we'll post it onto our new social weather alerts page & plot it on the map: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=social-weather-alerts;sess= We hope you enjoy using it and find it a useful tool when there's severe weather about.. Paul
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