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  1. ECM looks like it does not want to spoil the party! Rejoice and get ready for the biggest celebrations in 55 years! No dramas...no panic. Have a very good evening.
  2. While the gfs0z wants to keep us in a cool ne, The ecm 0z is at least slightly less cool by 240. The now very welcome friend the azores hp still some way away...come on mate! You can do it...
  3. A new thread to continue discussions. The beast duly arrived and we are now in the middle of a very cold week with many of us having experienced sub-zero temperatures and some snowfall. UKMO 850hPa t24hrs The next period of interest is now fast approaching as models show the Atlantic coming up against the current blocking high to our east towards the weekend. T84 fax Finer detail on the progress of this battle is slightly different on the models as the fronts meet the cold block of air currently over the UK.The question remains will the mild win eventually or will there be further twists? More fascinating model charts to come by the looks of it. Just a reminder only model discussion in this thread please folks. Other threads that will be useful below General Winter chat thread is here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94934-winter-202021-chat-ramps-moans-and-banter/?do=getNewComment Met.Office thread here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?do=getNewComment Regional threads here https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Thanks all and on we go.
  4. The UK (and Ireland) is on the cusp of a cold spell and potentially very snowy spell of weather, as east winds spread south across the whole of the country this weekend. With winds in the east, it's the eastern side of the country most likely to see what could be some substantial falls of snow, but this doesn't rule out snow in other regions. Please continue to discuss the upcoming spell, its longevity and even what may come beyond it, but only in the context of the model output in this thread. For more general cold weather chat we have opened up a dedicated thread for this period: February Cold Spell Discussion and Chat It's obviously a busy time currently, so it's really important we all make an effort to ensure that the posts we're making are on topic and in the relevant thread, so please do have a read of the rules of engagement below. Also, particularly during the times we're currently living in, emotions can run a bit higher than usual and what may seem like a throwaway comment or a gentle putdown to some can be really magnified for others. So please bear that, along with the fact that some are going through some really tough times in mind, and try to keep the mood in here friendly, kind and respectful of others views. Thanks, and happy model watching! **Model thread rules of engagement** As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly
  5. A fresh model thread in time for the 12z models this afternoon. The countdown to a potential cold easterly continues, today it's the GFS having a wobble, following from the ECMWF doing similar a day or so back. Let's see what the next set of runs bring... **Model thread rules of engagement** As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly
  6. A fresh model thread to continue to follow the ups and downs of what's already been an action-packed winter so far. There's a snow risk in places this weekend and into next week, then there are increasing signs from the models that the beast from the east could arrive later in the week - though nothing is nailed on yet.. Model thread rules of engagement! As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly
  7. A fresh thread to continue discussions as we start another interesting week. The battleground pattern continues during the next few days with the current cold spell coming under attack as milder Atlantic air starts to approach from the south west from Tuesday 26/01. The latest fax for Wednesday 27/01 at 1200 hrs show the fronts becoming slow moving by mid-week across the country. A lot of uncertainty remains on the progress of this even at this range along with what happens beyond.Will the cold bite back? It's good to see many more members further south have now seen snow over the last 48 hrs and there looks like plenty more interest going forward. Remember please keep just to model discussion in here and use the other threads for any snow reports and other general chat. Thanks all.
  8. A fresh thread as we head into the final third of January 2021. There's a fair bit happening this week, including Storm Christoph with heavy rain, flooding, gales and snow all on the nearer term agenda. Please take a look at the Christoph thread for more chat about all of that. Model thread rules of engagement! As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views. If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread. Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks. A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  9. Bonjour A new thread for discussing the models. Please continue your discussions As warming events in the Stratosphere continue to have impacts on the models, what sort of weather patterns could we expect down the line? In a way, the models are offering varying solutions, some of great interest to those who love cold and wintry weather. One thing, though, that looks evident is that the weather around the UK side of the Northern Hemisphere continues to be quite slow moving with sluggish High and Low Pressure areas about. Not the typical, flat, Westerly Atlantic dominated pattern with a beastly Vortex to the North of the UK and over Greenland that we see during a number of Winters. There is, for the moment, a likehood for Pressure and increased heights to build to the North-West of the UK as we head into next week. Examples shown at 168 hours from the 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEM, in that respective order, below. Although a block to the North-West looks very possible, there is perhaps some questions as to where it will occur (Greenland? Southern Greenland? Atlantic? Iceland? Mixture of all three?) and how big and strong it could be. A chance for Low Pressure to be sent on more of a Southerly track under the blocking towards the UK. However, as you can see above, it's all looking a fine line between whether they can track far enough South to plunge the whole of the UK under colder air from the North and East, or something that may be more restricted for Northern areas. If even that at all. An Icelandic or Greenland block being close enough to us without any higher heights to our South-East over mainland Europe getting in the way could help ensure Lows track far enough South to keep all the cold weather fans on the chillier side of the weather. Considering the situation we're in with the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming), expect many more changes to come. I do feel, at least, some blocking High Pressure to our West or North-West is a good possibility at times, as it seems to be something these Stratospheric warming events would support. Though clearly nothing is ever guaranteed and the patterns lower down in the atmosphere at the tropospheric level may not be reflected in exactly the same way as those higher up in the atmosphere. You can also have some great blocking to the North of us, but still be on the wrong side of the pattern for colder weather. Can hope if you're after some further cold weather, that won't be one of those times, or that there is a gradual slide to something much colder and snowier. NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart going for the build of heights to our North-West and some troughing South over the UK. An upper flow sourced all the way North from the East of Greenland, where it curves Eastwards through the UK. So their could be some chillier weather about at times, but where any sleet or snow occurs depending on the track the surface Lows themselves could take. Northern high ground quite likely fairing the best. No signs currently of any proper, freezing, conditions affecting the UK on this chart I feel. Some shift South and East of the pattern would help bring in some deeper, colder, conditions, with better chances of a more sustained flow from a Northerly and/or Easterly direction. This however still doesn't rule our marginal and transient wintry weather events and some days could easily be chillier than others. For some places, it could be very wet. The pattern could always evolve into something much colder, and considering the uncertainty again, there is room for things to improve or become more unfavourable for chilly weather prospects next week. The latest 6 to 10 day 500mb NOAA anomaly charts can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Hopefully, and especially for those who haven't seen some of the white stuff yet, all of you cold weather enthusiasts will get in on some snowy action. A good number of weeks to go for this to be possible. Compared to last Winter, things are looking more interesting for the cold and snow fans this Winter. While this is something a lot may want, there are a few of you who may want something stormy, wet, mild, dry, frosty or a variety of everything. Although it has been greatly discussed, the closer time frame does offer some wintry treats, especially for those towards Northern and Eastern areas of the UK. For example, the GFS shows some precipitation moving down from the North today as a little Low sinks South through the UK bringing the chance of some sleet and snow over Northern and Eastern areas (already reports of snow over parts of Scotland): There are variations from many different models to the track of the precipitation and how widespread the rain, sleet and snow could be. The general situation seems to be for the rain over Eastern areas to transition into sleet and snow throughout the day as the Low Pressure picks up colder air from the East (although with some cold air already over numerous Northern and Eastern spots, some of the rain could very readily turn into snow). Maybe some of this sleet or snow extending further South-West into parts of the West Midlands, depending how easily some of the milder air further South and West gets pushed away. Heavy precipitation will help play a part encouraging some evapourative cooling to occur and drag the snow line down to lower levels. Best chance of settling snow over high ground where there could be 15 plus cm's over the Northern hills, though some accumlations lower down is likely in some spots leading to some locaslised disruption, especially again over Eastern and Northern areas. A lot of looking out of windows and lamposts with this event I imagine. And it's always possible for everything to occur further West or further East than what many models show. A marginal event it may be, but something for some cold weather fans to look forward to. Please keep it friendly in here and stick to the models. Bullying will not be tolerated. These include posts that: Make fun of other members Disrespect other people's weather preferences (you don't have to like the type of weather others like, but please be respectful of other people's choices) Try to get a reaction from others Are weather guilt-tripping Belittle people due to them having differing opinions to you And anything else that is deemed rude and offensive. Those sort of posts will Off topic posts will also be put under the disappearing spell or moved to a more suitable thread. You can also report off topic or inappropriate posts and the team will deal with the situation as soon as possible. For general Winter chat, moans and ramps, please use this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94934-winter-202021-chat-ramps-moans-and-banter/ Other suitable threads you could use: Met Office UK Further Outlook Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Weather Chat I suspect it will continue to get very busy in here at times, particularly as many continue to hunt for certain weather types such as cold and snow, so we will accept a little bit of off topic content in posts at times as longs they're broadly about the models and don't derail the thread. We would prefer if the thread wasn't used for congratulations or thanks type posts (unless there is a very good reason for it and/or has some model discussion in the post). The use of the private messaging system or the 'like' or 'thanks' button would be much prefered. Thank you Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere Previous Thread:
  10. After the recent SSW there are signs that the models might be homing in on the outcome with a spell of cold and snowy weather possible for the UK. So a good time for a new thread to continue discussions. Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views. With it likely to get very busy in here, can we please not use the thread for congratulations or thanks type posts - instead could we use private messaging or the 'like' or 'thanks' button. Thanks. Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models: Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere
  11. A new thread, as interest in a potential cold spell starting towards the final third of the month grows, possibly helped along by the recent SSW. Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views. Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models: Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  12. A new thread, as the cold spell which has been with us since Boxing day draws to a close this weekend. An SSW has occurred this week though, and that may influence things as we move through January, but, the models aren't generally showing any significant cold in the short or medium term at the moment. Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views. Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models: Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch Regional Chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  13. Gfs was right over ecm for a few runs in the 8/10 day period b6 the time Ukmo appeared the evolution was assured
  14. A new thread for a new year and 2021 is getting off to a cold start. As is always the case, please keep it friendly in here. This thread is solely for discussing the models, so please don't use it for general banter, moans and ramps, discussing tv / internet forecasts from the BBC, Met Office etc or 'will it snow' type localised weather chat. A few useful alternative threads are: Winter chat and moans thread Cold spell discussion Regional weather chat Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere Happy New Year!
  15. Don't forget every day the north sea gets slightly colder now, and that -7 might turn in -8 or -9 by the time we get to day 7.
  16. Afternoon.... You can sense the excitement building in here... This cold spell will have many layers however the theme of cold becoming colder & colder > with the possibility of an even colder layer to come ( day 10 > ) The ensembles can be layered in the same way > 06z displays this nicely... So as we head through this week > as the cold air becomes established & milder layers of the boundry layer mix out & rain / sleet is replaced by sleet / snow....
  17. Greetings all A new thread for the festive period. Other thread started to slow down a bit. With Christmas here, a lot of us weather-wise become flooded with excitement at the prospect of something cold and white. For a few, maybe you want something mild, stormy and/or dry. But what sort of weather will Santa be delivering for us I wonder? From what the models are showing, we have chilly weather taking over from the North at the moment. Using various charts from the Netwx-SR/MR and GFS models, it shows a chilly Northerly invading the whole UK during Christmas Eve today and a toppling Atlantic High out West. The whole UK under -5*C and colder 850 hPa temperatures. -10*C area not far off from Northern Scotland. It will be cold across Northern England and Scotland, freezing over higher ground. Pretty cold across the rest of the UK. Fine and dry for Central areas, maybe with an isolated shower. Otherwise showers likely down Western, Northern and Eastern Coasts. The 850 hPa temperatures and 500 to 1000mb thicknesses look supportive for showers to be wintry at times. More especially under heavier showers down the Eastern parts of the UK where the Netwx-SR model has the thicknesses as low as 520dam over parts of the Eastern Midlands and Lincolnshire. So a few flakes possible, though probably more marginal right out on the coast. The wintry mix of showers likely to continue overnight and through Christmas morning down some Eastern UK coasts. Dry and clearer everywhere else, perhaps the odd isolated shower or two down Western UK coasts. A bitter night and morning to come with frost for most places away from Eastern and Western coasts. Little less cold over Western Ireland. Christmas Day will be another chilly day with some morning frost, which may persist for a while over Northern high ground areas and places sheltered from the Westerly winds. The Atlantic High/ridge gets shunted back South-West to allow the Westerly flow to take over from the Atlantic. Few odd wintry showers may continue over some Eastern coasts. Most Eastern, Central and Southern parts staying fine and bright though. Could get some nice walks in. Some cloudy, windy and wet conditions will spill into the North-West of the UK later into the day. Wintry over the Scottish hills A less colder night compared to Christmas Eve/Christmas morning with some showers and rain over Western and North-Western areas. Heavier rain pushing into Western Scotland Boxing Day morning. Cold over South-Eastern areas of the UK with some frost possible. Boxing Day looks unsettled as Low Pressure over Iceland drives a blustery Westerly flow over the UK. You will also see that the Azores High is re-amplifying out West, which leads to some compelling outcomes for cold weather fans further down the line. There will be showers and longer spells of rain for many places, which could be heavy at times. Perhaps drier towards the far North-East of the UK. Fairly mild over Southern areas, but cooler under the heavier areas of rain I’d imagine. Bit chillier further North where the rain is likely to fall as sleet or snow over some of the taller hills Sunday 27th December sees the Atlantic ridge to our West becoming Highly amplified. The upper heights from this extending North-West through Greenland connecting with the ridge over the Siberia area. This sends the upper and surface Low South-East over the UK. We see a split in the Troposphere Vortex over the Northern Hemisphere. It will be a chilly day with further rain and showers circulating around the Low Pressure over the UK. South-Eastern areas clinging onto milder temperatures at first as some heavy rain via cold front clears South-East over that area. The rain and showers over the UK could become wintry on high ground, although with such low upper heights accompanying the deep Low Pressure, there could be some sleety precipitation down to lower levels. Particularly under heavy showers, and more so over Western and Northern areas where the Low wraps some colder 850 hPa temperatures from the North-West, South-Eastwards through Western UK Some little changes to the details are possible over the next few days as to where and how wintry precipitation could be. This is just a general idea of what to expect. Some of this coming down to nowcasting. In fact, even on Sunday the exact depth of the Low and where the centre of it goes is not full-on settled yet. What looks certain is an amplified area of High Pressure over the Atlantic and a deep upper trough sent South over the UK Looking at the Jetstream chart for Sunday on the latest GFS 18Z run would support the above scenario. Buckles and amplifies upstream in the mid and Western Northern Atlantic. Help to steer weather systems from the North-West down towards us Onto 120 hours (Monday midday), the various 12Z operational runs while there are differences to some details, keep the Atlantic ridging rather strong to our West and Low Pressure over the UK. 12Z GFS 12Z UKMO 12Z ECMWF 12Z ICON 12Z GEM In terms of that Atlantic ridge, the GEM seems the strongest. The upper ridging pushing the furthest North over Southern Greenland. The Low to the West of it in slightly of a less hurry to run over the ridge. One thing that caught my eye, however, is the GFS is the most keen to try sink that upper UK trough to our South through Monday. Same is true on the latest 18Z GFS run for Monday below, so being quite consistent with this situation Other models above have the deep Low and upper trough more directly placed over the whole UK. ICON not too far off from the GFS in that it has the centre of the Low over South/South-Western UK. A variation in the shape of the surface and upper trough on the operational models above. Going for quite a stretch on the UKMO. Stretchy Lows tending to be better than rounded ones for wintry weather. The further South and East they also go, the better for pulling in a colder flow from the North and East. With the way things are, there is a lack of particularly cold 850 hPa temperatures over the UK, despite the impressive setup. I think the issue is, the UK Low combined with the Russian block to our East is drawing up some milder 850 hPa Northwards through South-Eastern Europe and towards Scandinavia, meaning not much proper cold to tap into in that direction. This does vary a bit depending on the shape and position of the UK Low above at 120 hours. A little shift further East of Low Pressure at that time-frame, could mean dragging in some of the colder 850 hPa temperatures down from the North around Iceland. However, it’s not worth getting too nail-bitey over the 850 hPa temperatures. Plus it’s not like both Scandinavia and the UK, for example, are under positive 850 hPa temperatures. Depending on where the actual position and track the Low ends up, anywhere could see some rain, sleet or hill snow. There will likely be a wintry mix of showers about too away from the longer spells of wintry weather considering how unstable the air is. And with the upper 500mb heights being very low, this could drag colder air down to lower levels pushing the snow line down. Helped by precipitation being heavy to encourage evaporative cooling and the flow being slack. Which the outlook for Monday has real possibilities of doing since the Low Pressure, except perhaps away from the centre of it doesn’t look all that ‘stormy’. For snow, deep cold is not essential. It can help, but can get by without it. Sure though it would be nice to tap into some proper cold at some point. Some deeper cold quite easily be possible thanks to the blocked setups the models are currently showing. Would say the GFS is mostly on its own with the speed it sinks the trough on Monday, making me wonder if it’s being too quick with that evolution. Will see I guess. Further on towards 168 hours, the 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEM, in that order below, continue with ridging in the mid-Atlantic. Between 120 and 168 hours, some Low Pressure tried to run over the top of the Atlantic ridging over Western Greenland attempting to somewhat knock it down South to our West. But struggled to make much impact. You can see there is, in varying forms, a pokey Low/shortwave over Iceland looking to swing South-East down towards the UK. Along with Low Pressure reasonably far enough West over the Newfound area to allow a good gap for the amplified Atlantic ridge to gain more Northwards latitude Have highlighted on the GFS the usefulness of having separation between the UK/Eastern UK Lows and the ones to the West of that ridging Too much of that Low Pressure riding over the top of the Atlantic ridge could flatten it, even though events downstream would likely prevent that ridge getting over to mainland Europe. And it’s not impossible for a North-West to South-East Jetstream to continue towards the UK. It does seem unlikely for it to run over the top. Models haven’t be that keen for that to happen. Not impossible, mind. Both the ECMWF and GEM from 192 to 240 hours stretch that Newfoundland Low throwing up warm air Northwards towards South and Western Greenland and then drop the Low South into the Atlantic. At the same time Low Pressure to our North-West drops over (12Z GEM), or to the East of (12Z ECMWF), the UK. This forms some strong blocking to our North-West. GEM trying to build a cut off Greenland High while the ECMWF has more of a Western Icelandic one. The poor Icelandic ridge gets a big poke from the Northern Iceland Low at 240 hours on the ECMWF 12Z ECMWF 12Z GEM The 18Z GFS, while it does try to get some ridging going over Greenland, has that Low further upstream exhibiting some different behaviour. Part of it does split against the Atlantic to Southern Greenland ridging - a small shallow area dropping South into the Atlantic with ridging building over the top. That little shallow part getting cut off. But a fair chunk of the Low mixes with other Lows upstream swirling around the increasingly deep upper low heights over North-Eastern Canada towards 240 hours Puts pressure on the ridge, although it has no choice but to topple East over the South-Eastern UK Low Pressure towards Scandinavia. That run though does get as messy as getting covered in a big pile of mud! A quick look at the 850 hPa temperatures from those 3 long range models at 240 hours, and they generally get some colder 850 hPa temperatures in over the UK 18Z GFS 12Z ECMWF 12Z GEM Not mind-blowing, but too far out to pay much attention to. Yep, tis a shame they’re not colder. Considering it would have been staying cool to cold over the UK, especially across the North, they’re adequate. And provides some better chances of wintry weather. The 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean between days 8 and 10 looks impressive for cold and blocked weather. A signal for the Atlantic ridge to get up to Iceland with downstream European trough. Incredible for a 10 day mean. With operational models showing variations of blocking to our North-West, then it feels like the most preferred outcome. Both the Russian and Icelandic ridging giving the Vortex a good thrashing. No signs of it yet, coming back home to Greenland. Same is the case on the 18Z GEFS mean at 240 hours, except with a more positively tilted ridge of slightly lower latitude in the mid-Atlantic and a bit more in the way of purples to the North of Greenland. A little less great personally than on the ECMWF ensemble mean. But in no way terrible. No menacing blue and purple monster pushed over to Greenland, which would likely fire up the Jetstream upstream keeping things flatter One issue with the means is they can obscure other scenarios where ensemble members become tightly clustered towards differing solutions against the mean. As a quick example for London though, the 18Z GEFS average 2 meter temperature graph does maintain the chilly theme (not much scatter)... albeit there’s that odd milder blip just after Christmas Day Both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day NOAA 500mb anomaly charts are similar going for chilly conditions. Upper ridge combined with higher than average heights over Russia and the mid-Atlantic. Lower than average heights with upper trough South through the UK and into mainland Europe. A tendency for the upper trough to sink a little further South on the 8 to 14 day chart. Upper flow between the North-West and North over the UK. But is rather slack so the direction the weather comes from will likely depend on the surface features, though primary direction probably being from the Northerly sector. Definitely could support a wintry mix of weather at times, not necessarily over the Northern hills. An aspect that’s making these charts interesting at the moment. If I had to be picky, would love for the Russian High to drift into a more desired position more directly to our North or North-East orientated in a West to East position. This would then draw some deeper cold air Westwards on its Southern flank towards the UK all the way from Siberia. The way it’s positioned isn’t the best for getting some real cold air in. Is funny really, the Russian High could assist in keeping the Vortex all bruised up, but in other ways, could be a big, fat, pain. The feeling of wondering if it’s better for it to get lost. To be honest, though, I think the cold weather fans have a lot to be happy with at the moment. Some of the best charts in a while. Some of the deeper cold could come with time, or as some covered before, some localised cold pools could develop. This sort of slow and blocky pattern has possibilities to lead to colder and colder weather, though not impossible for blocking to eventually migrate in an undesirable place. Depending in a way how the developments up in the Stratosphere continue to behave and what affect it could have in the lower down layers. No easy feat to get deep cold over the UK. For a cold weather fan during Winter, am grateful with what is showing at the moment. To me, the Atlantic looks sleepy. While it’s not impossible for things to become more flatter (guess blocked patterns don’t last forever), doesn’t seem much chance for the mild South-Westerlies to take over. On the whole, great outputs to bring some joy. And quite possibly some snow ️ It wanting something milder, just got to hope the models are overplaying amplification in the West and the blocking signals in general. Or the meridional/blocking patterns set up unfavourably for long lasting cold. Some understandably as well might just be happy with a High Pressure dominated outlook over the UK, or a variation of different things. Additionally, thought it was worth including this king post by @snowking below to highlight that, although 850 hPa temperatures can be important for snow, this is just a reminder that it’s not the only thing required for wintry weather with various factors to take into account Also going to include this by knocker. Contains some further useful information for factors regarding snowfall and a link by John Holmes (included below) covering these ingredients Will it snow? - John Holmes Hopefully help calm some nerves, as things were getting quite heated over the 850 hPa temperatures in the previous thread. Which, to be fair, people are entitled to their opinion on as longs as it’s related to the Models. Not constantly full of moans and snipes, and doesn’t clog up the thread. Speaking of which, please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in here. Rude and nasty behaviour is not tolerated. You can can expect these sort of posts to vanish, like magic! If you spot any issues like the above, please report the post rather than responding to it. We’ll get it sorted. Thanks you! If you're wanting to chat more generally about Winter, maybe have a ramp or moan, please head off to the Winter chat thread: Because we understand this thread is fast paced during Winter, a little bit of off topic content in ya post is okay, especially with the pandemic about, which doesn’t make things easy at the moment. Providing however your post is still mostly related to the models. Otherwise, the thread above is better suited for general Winter chat. Seeing as it’s Christmas we’ll allow Christmas messages in here, although you could also use the regional chat threads if you like. For discussions about the Met Office UK outlook, use this thread here: Wanna learn more about meteorology? Please take a look at the Learning and Research area: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/learning/ Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra Subscribers) GFS GFS Hourly GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere Previous thread: Lastly, with the ongoing pandemic, Christmas this year could feel different to a lot people. Whether you’re spending it with family, loved ones or on your own, I hope it is still a good one being able to make the best of the situation you’re in. For those where Christmas may lack joy, I trust you’ll be able to find the light within you to glow and flourish. We’re always by your side I would like to thank everyone for making this site a fabulous place to be. All your great contributions, humour, rollercoaster moments and such that get the machinery of Netweather running like clockwork. Sure there are those times, where threads like these descend into discourtesy, although those moments are mostly few and far between. There’d would be no community if it wasn’t for you all. So many of you bringing something magical to the site. A lot great people I would love to name, but you should be proud of yourselves A healthier year may the New Year bring to us all. Let it shine like a brighter star than 2020. One where we’re taken back to the pre-Covid days... only better than ever before! Lots of great weather to excite all the enthusiasts from snow, rain, sunshine, warmth, storms or what ever else that gets ya boat floating A warm Christmas and New Year
  18. No it isn't. A true Greenland high isn't supported by the EPS, GEFS or the background signals, MJO isn't supportive of a Greenland high. The UKMO doesn't even have a Greenland high, in actual fact it's likely the low over Canada would move eastwards cutting the very weak link on the next frame as that's where energy is heading at 144. < This isn't supported. What IS supported within the EPS & GEFS & UKMO is an Atlantic ridge that temporarily extends up into S Greenland before "toppling" to a N Atlantic ridge. There's no doubting it's going to turn colder, and I agree with you that these things usually shift eastwards as the time-frame nears, indeed we're already seeing the ensemble means further east with the low than the det runs. The GEM is pretty much bang on with how I think the pattern will evolve. < Brief riding up to S Greenland, a more direct northerly, GEM bang in-line with the GEFS/EPS means. < Block unsustained, too much residual vorticity over Canada for the block to build into Greenland. What we're left with is a northerly blast, colder than current modelling suggests though likely nothing "exceptional' with a snow risk primarily across N hills, but depending on small bumps in the flow/shortwaves perhaps a more widespread threat, but not worth looking at those sorts of details at this range. A period of below average temps xmas > new year with a risk of snow, probably a few surprises given we do see a slightly cooler airflow than currently modelled. I wouldn't be surprised to see the signal for the high to topple over the UK to grow given the signal from GLOSEA favouring HP over the UK into January, GLOSEA did exceptionally well with the call for milder weather during the middle part of this month, was one of the first model to switch to that idea I believe. On-going strat disruption and hopefully low heights into Europe mean the chances of mild weather are low into Jan, and with a potential SSW early-mid January the rest of winter is all to play for.
  19. Christmas is coming, we're two weeks into Winter already and in that short time we've had the first cold snap of the season, including a bit of snow, swiftly followed by the first mass toy throwing / winter's over period of the season too. What's to come next? Maybe a colder spell as we head into the Xmas period? As always, please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in this thread. If you spot any issues, please report the post rather than responding to it. If you're wanting to chat more generally about this winter, or maybe have a ramp, please head off to the winter chat thread: If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  20. Please continue with the model chat in here. As always, please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in this thread. If you spot any issues, please report the post rather than responding to it. If you're wanting to chat more generally about this winter, or maybe have a ramp, please head off to the winter chat thread: If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  21. New thread for a new season, and Winter has started with some colder weather in the offing (for a change!). Please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in this thread. If you spot any issues, please report the post rather than responding to it. If you're wanting to chat more generally about this winter, or maybe have a ramp, please head off to the winter chat thread: If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  22. The old thread was starting to get a bit cumbersome, so here's a fresh one to take us into the start of winter. As always, please keep it to the models and friendly in here. If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  23. A fresh model thread as we close in on the start of winter, not that you'd know it with the weather being so mild right now. As ever, please keep it friendly and model related in here. For more general winter related chat, please head over to the upcoming winter discussion: If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area. Model Output And Charts On Netweather: UKV (Extra subscribers) GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met Office (UKMO) Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Golbal Jetstream Stratosphere
  24. A new thread as we head into Autumn, Promising signs from the Model's for High Pressure to establish over the UK. But for how long? Please remember to keep on topic and back posts up with charts if/where possible. Thanks all, on we go.. Old thread is here:
  25. Holy guacamole! What a sight the 00z run is to wake up to. Basically getting stewed for a week with storms galore and 30+ degrees every day, with a few days shooting over 35c! Brace yourselves everyone, looks well and truly like we are on the verge of properly going into the furnace.
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