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Yup, spotted first on the euro models and a couple of others about a week ago, way before anything actually existed. GFS said no. Slowly(see posts in Atlantic Hurricane season) the other models came on board and the NOAA started to issue a possible , and the models started to hint at something bigger. By the 24th, we finally had confirmation from the NHC that something might happen. And by midday on the 24th.. So now we have this new thread, for a system still not declared TD, which may well become this years most costly weather event to the US.
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Took a while for the shear to allow previous TD9, now Tropical Storm Ian to start gaining form, but now it seems that the extremely warm gulf will allow Ian to explosively deepen and grow. Still a lot of uncertainty about track, Florida panhandle or Gulf coast, depending on a trough position, but Ian should reach Major Hurricane status for some of his journey at least.
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Tropical Storm Nicole
Jo Farrow posted a topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
From NWS and NHC - Subtropical Storm Nicole continues to approach the Florida peninsula and is forecast to strengthen to a Hurricane when crossing the northwest Bahamas. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. It is a large storm and a dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. The centre of the storm is expected to make landfall in Florida late Wednesday then track northwest across the state before curving to the northeast and moving up along the East Coast. SubTropical - Tropical - postTropical Depression - Storm - Hurricane NHC "supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt " - 1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022 Interesting presentations about the different classifications of Subtropical and then Tropical satelitte imagery https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2018/14f_HebertPoteatTechnique_JackBeven.pdf https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2016/08_DvorakTechnique_JackBeven.pdf- 12 replies
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NHC - "Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. As the hurricane nears the northern Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall." Mexico met warning about ZETA which has made landfall http://smn.conagua.gob.mx//templates/t3_bs3_blank/favicon.ico Aviso de Ciclón Tropical en el Océano Atlántico SMN.CONAGUA.GOB.MX
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Hi guys, I live near Jacksonville in NE Florida. The area is currently being battered by Irma's outer bands. Since earlier this afternoon, we've had multiple squall lines rattle through, bringing horizontal rains and the threat of tornadoes. This is forecasted to continue all night here. If there are any other Florida residents reading this (or anyone else being/has been affected by Irma, how is it where you are?
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This TimeLapse begins on 21st and ends on 24th of March 2017.
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This is a cool little TimeLapse that I captured using the LapseIt Pro app on my iPhone 5s.
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Does anyone know of any instances in the UK where sea breeze initiated storms have occurred? They occur almost daily during the wet season in Florida where the two sea breezes from the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico converge in the middle of the state bringing spectacular thunderstorms. Polk County gets around 25 storms a month in June, July and August. Further convergence areas are then set up by thunderstorm outflows, allowing the storms to rumble on into the night even after the sea breeze dies out. A similar effect occurs in Cuba where the sea breeze from the north meets the sea breeze from the south, although it is less pronounced than in Florida. I also believe it can occur in Italy from time to time. As the UK is also quite narrow I wonder if its possible for a westerly sea breeze to meet an easterly sea breeze to bring thunderstorms? In Florida it usually only occurs from May to September as the sea surface temperatures are in the low 30s, and the temperatures over land need to be higher than this for a sea breeze to set up, but the seas around the UK are far cooler, so sea breezes can more easily affect the UK. If anyone knows of an example of a sea breeze thunderstorm outbreak in the UK I'd very grateful if they could let me know when it happened! I have attached a diagram I found which outlines the phenomenon quite well: