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Found 13 results

  1. Hi all, I thought I'd start this post (which may turn into a series) to have a look at some historic climate changes over time. This is partly inspired by a recent discussion I had in another thread on the Paleocene-Eocene. For each epoch I look at, I'll try to explain what the impacts were regionally and globally, what caused the change (if known) and what lessons can be learned if any. If this does turn into a series, I'll probably tackle different climate epochs in reverse chronological order. I thought about starting with the 20th century, but that's probably been largely done to death in the historic weather section, so I thought it better to move beyond that. Absent any requests, if I do turn this into a series (mostly dependent on interest), my next post will probably be on the Medieval Warm Period, followed by the Holocene Climate Optimum. Happy to discuss any issues raised in the comments. What was the Little Ice Age? In the words of the IPCC (AR6): In English, it's most likely the coldest period of global temperatures in the last 2,000 years, as shown in the PAGES2k climate reconstruction. The time frame that we are interested in is bounded by the black vertical lines I've added to the chart: As shown, the global impact is relatively modest, and not significantly different from zero. However, the effects are much more noticeable if you look at smaller geographies, such as the 2010 reconstruction of extratropical Northern Hemisphere temperatures (from 30 degrees N to 90 degrees N) by Ljungqvist below. Temperatures were likely more than half a degree below 1961-1990: In short, much of the variation is smoothed out on a global scale, but it does seem reasonable to suppose based on available evidence that there were very substantial changes in much of the Northern Hemisphere, at a minimum. Selected notable climate or climate-related events Expansion of glaciers in much of the Alps Some of the UK's coldest documented winters (including the legendary 1683-4 winter) Swedish army marched across the ice to Denmark in 1658 (The March Across the Belts) Widespread crop failures in Iceland Abandonment of Norse colonies in Greenland Harsh winters in New World colonies Causes Causes of the Little Ice Age are still fairly disputed - there are potentially a number of factors which may have acted together. I've listed a few causes, in rough order of how commonly they are cited as a major factor: Volcanic activity Lower solar activity Orbital changes Internal climate variability Reduced human population Summary The Little Ice Age was significantly cooler than the mid to late 20th century across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, but the impact on a global scale was smaller or possibly even zero. Since this is still relatively modern (compared to climatic variations in the more distant past), we can learn a lot about how societies reacted to the changes. It has also lived on in our cultural memory! I'll end with an illustration of the Thames Frost Fair in the winter of 1683-84, and one of the famous prints you could have bought on the River Thames (held by the Museum of London, and this one bought by King Charles II!): If you've got this far, thanks for reading.
  2. OAA has had a chance to look back on all the weather and climate disasters of 2020. And like many other aspects of 2020, the numbers we're seeing aren't positive. 2020 officially broke the record for most $1 billion disasters. The 22 costliest events shattered numbers previously set by 16 separate billion-dollar disasters in 2011 and 2017. Note: the record here is for the number of events. In terms of cost, 2020's $95 billion price tag ranks as the fourth costliest. Hurricane Laura's damages came in at the highest price for 2020. In fact, seven of the 12 landfalling tropical systems caused at least $1 billion in damages, which is a record in itself. Western wildfires were also extremely active in 2020, consuming nearly 10.3 million acres. This includes about 4% of California's total acreage. To top it all off, 2020 ranked as the 5th warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S.. Here in the District, 2020 ranked as the 3rd warmest year, tying 2019 with an annual average temperature of 60.6 degrees. There are many other notable records and statistics to come out of 2020. A deeper analysis is available as part of NOAA's annual assessment here.
  3. In recent years there's been a lot of discussion about weather patterns getting stuck more frequently. Is the weather actually changing, or is it media hype? And, if it really is changing, do we have any clues as to why? Read the full article
  4. Good evening everyone. Trump wants the US to harvest the moon and ignore International agreements that the moon is not to be messed with. How does everyone feel about our moon and other planets being mined for resources and precious minerals? I really don't think it's a good idea to be taking lumps out of something that is so sensitively linked to our planet? Trump order encourages US to mine the moon | Donald Trump | The Guardian AMP.THEGUARDIAN.COM Executive order says US will oppose any international effort to bar it from removing chunks of moon, Mars or elsewhere in space
  5. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/29/noaa-tweaks-their-poorly-performing-climate-forecast-system-model-to-remove-cold-bias/ That'll be a killer blow for those who post those apocalyptic Winter charts when it gets to Autumn.
  6. Two years ago, a few polls were posted about CO2 and climate sensitivity, and there were 26 or so responses. The old poll can be seen here. So I thought, seen as some time has passed, to post up the same questions and see how things have changed, if at all. Like last time, voting is set to private.
  7. Hi, I start a topic on the weather in Italy, focusing on the weather in the city of Siena and in Tuscany. Italy has a very complex climate. The position on Mediterranean Sea and the intricate orography of its territory makes forecast very difficult and sometimes unpredictable also in the very short range. As you can see in the map town of Siena is situated in the centre-north Italy, in the heart of Tuscany, 50 km south of Florence, the capital of Tuscany, and 185 north to Rome. Italy's capital. Siena' centre(where I live) is located at the altitude of 310-360 meters and was build majorly in the Middle Age on three hills. The weather is mild. Summer is hot and dry. Autumn can be very wet and rainy, Winter cool but very very rarely cold. Snow falls 1-3 times a year. The mean in 61-90 was about 20-25cm per years, in the last two decades the mean dropped to 10cm per years. The coldest month is January with a Mean Temperature of +5°C, the hottest is July with a Mean T. of +22.2°C, the yearly mean. Temperature is 13.2°C This datas are based on 61-90 mean of Siena's University station, located in the center of the town, 348 m.
  8. Hello again! I started this thread to hear your personal opinions on each month of the year in terms of the weather and other environmental factors. Below are my opinions on each month: January - January is often a month of two halves for me. I think the first half is generally very miserable. The Christmas and New Year celebrations have ended and the daily routine of work and school restarts and generally the weather is quite dismal as the Atlantic train is still in full force. I also think daylight is a bit too short, but that get's better in the second half. The second half is much better, daylight is slightly longer and the Atlantic train weakens, meaning more in the way of proper wintry weather. February - February is the best winter month for me as it often promises the best chances of wintry weather. Darkness falls at around 17:00, which I think is perfect for winter and the relentless Atlantic train finally stops, meaning a much greater chance of snow and cold. March - March in my opinion is a very decent month. In years like 2013, it can be a lovely extension to winter and in years like 2012 and this year it can bring an early taste of late spring, or more impressively early summer, which considering some regard March as a winter month is really very remarkable. April - April is also a very pleasant month for me. It is the time when the sun is strengthening, daytime is now longer than night, and nature bursts into life and the clocks have sprung foward. It can again, also bring an early taste of summer. May - May is probably my second-favourite month because it can often be quite summery and days are now much longer than night. May can also promise the best weather in some years as the westerly usually haven't quite kicked into gear yet, June - June is often my favourite month. Days are very long and June is often the most summer-like month in the UK. (with the exception of 2012 of course) July - July is also a good month, but it is often when we get the "Return of the Westerlies" and it can often be quite cool and cloudy. However in years when July is dominated by a heat wave, I would say it replaces June in my preference list. August - August is ok, but it can often be ruined by westerly winds bringing rain and cloud. One thing it usually is good for though is torrential thunderstorms and is usually redeemed when the heavens open, along with the thunder and lightning. September - I often see September as the "calm before the storm" month as it can often be a lovely extension to summer, even though nights are longer than days at the end. In more recent years, I would say that September has been more summery than August. October - October can start off ok, but it usually turns sour very quickly especially as the Atlantic train kicks into gear. Only the Autumn leaves redeem it slightly. November - The worst month for me is November. It is a month dominated by the Atlantic's mild, wet and windy rubbish. The leaves have gone, the plants have died, the sky is grey... yeah, it's just depressing. December - A very decent month in my opinion. The festive season starts and the world generally feels closer together. Even though it often lacks wintry weather, the Christmas spirit makes it a lovely time of the year... along with the New Year's Eve parties. Well those are the months according to me. I'd like to hear what you think and of course, you don't have to go into as much detail as I have if you want.
  9. Just some general questions to gauge the opinions of CO2 in this forum. Voting is set to private.
  10. Some will already be aware of this, but I think it merits a separate thread. The University of Chicago is running an 8 week MOOC (Massive Online Open Course) for non-scientists about climate change. The direct link to the course is here: https://www.coursera.org/course/globalwarming This is a fabulous opportunity for absolutely anyone who has an interest in the subject, or doubts about the science, to learn the basics and understand how it all works. It is FREE. You don't have to buy anything. You can drop out if you want. You don't need any qualifications (though they suggest basic maths). It's a few hours effort a week. If, like me, you are a non-scientist who has personal opinions and ideas about AGW, or whatever, there is absolutely no reason for you not to sign up and learn. If you complete the course you get a certificate of achievement and a new-found confidence in all your discussions about the pros and cons of this important subject. I've already signed up. Who else?
  11. Hello! My name is Daniel and I am new to this forum. I joined this forum as I am a young weather enthusiast and am hoping to go into the field of meteorology when I am older. The matter is getting into university first, I wish to do a Geography undergraduate and then a postgraduate in either meteorology or climatology. I can get the grades required however I have been looking for some sources of wider reading for a while now and haven't found much. I would very much enjoy carrying out this and was wondering if anyone knew of any appropriate *free* wider reading sources for meteorology or climatology? Thank you
  12. In today's Daily Express there was an article relating weather control: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/268429/Can-we-really-control-weather- At frst sight it sounds like it could be great to control the weather as we would like it but I wonder what the side effects could be - the weather does not occur in isolated pockets of air but interacts widely, so in our attempts to control the weather in one particular place could result in unforeseen effects in another,
  13. Radio 4 - text from audio (Costing the Earth programme) Quote" Some of the factors that are important that we have now identified are things like the el Niño/laNina cycle in the tropical pacific, that sounds like it's a long way from Europe but it’s a very big disturbance in the climate system, when you have an el-Niño where the tropical pacific warms up or a la-Nina where it cools down, so when you get an el-Niño you get this wave that propagates out right across the globe affecting the northern hemisphere, and in ultimately having an influence on Europe and the UK, another factor is Arctic ice; we believe that when the ice is much reduced due to either the long term trend due to global warming or natural fluctuations, and this also tends to drive easterly winds in winter over Europe, that’s Still a research topic, but people are reasonably confident that’s what happens, and of course recent years we’ve had very low Arctic ice, which again is another indicator, and a very new factor that’s been identified is fluctuations in the suns output, every eleven years or so the sun goes through a cycle of high and low output, it’s quite a suttle thing, there are only small changes in energy, much smaller for example then the power you get out of a single light bulb in each square meter, but what we’ve had recently found is that the ultra violet light is fluctuating by more than previously thought, the ultra violet light is what heats the upper atmosphere where the ozone is, when there is less ultra violet and there is less heating so the tropical region in particular is a little bit cooler than normal, just a couple of degrees, and that means that the winds start to flow a bit more from the east, because the temperatures and the winds are imbalanced in the atmosphere, and then as we approach winter those easterly winds grow and descend through atmosphere until they get down to about the region where you take your commercial air flight a few miles above the surface and at this point they seem to affect the Jet stream in the Atlantic, they send it further south and they weaken it, and that change in the weather region in the lower part of the Atmosphere is what drives winds from Siberia, and bringing us the cold weather to Europe and the UK, so at solar minimum and a weak solar output you tend to get more winters that are colder and Easterly, we had low solar activity and we had very low Arctic sea ice, and we had an el-Niño, all of those things we think helped to drive easterly and cold condition over northern Europe and the UK. Looking at 2010/11 last winter then the el-Niño/la-Nina cycle had flipped, we were in the la-Nina phase that tends to give milder ends to winter, however the solar was still at low activity, the sun was still and the Arctic ice was very low again, so those two become driving more easterly conditions. Whats not possible is to predict the exact weather on a particular day months ahead, so for example we couldn’t currently say whether or not it’s going to snow on the 15th of January, however what we think might be possible is to say something about the average conditions over the coming months, so we can say whether or not it’s likely to be warmer or cooler than normal, if you look at the change in some of the drivers that we’ve been talking about you can start to build up some sort of a picture, the Arctic ice continues its general decline, this year it was the second lowest on record, so again that’s very low, that’s an important factor that drives easterly’s, the el-Niño/la-Nina cycle is now approaching a la-Nina for this winter, were very confident about that, that tends to drive a mild end to winter and perhaps a colder start, it’s not as strong as last years i might say though, only one or so degree below normal compared to two degrees, so its twice as strong last winter, and the solar factor is now on the rise, were getting pretty close to sort of average conditions for the solar activity, so that is less likely to be a factor as it has been in recent winters."
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