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February 1978 was a cold and snowy month that featured one of the most intense blizzards in recorded history. The month started with temperatures close to average - westerly winds dominated until the 6th. Gales on the 1st/2nd sent ships adrift. Changes began on the 7th as winds started to blow in from the continent. Freezing fog becamee difficult to clear and temperatures started to plummet. The 9th began a four day streak of temperatures remaining below zero. The C.E.T. from the 8th to the 21st averaged -0.4. Snowfall totals during this period included 15cm across Kent from snow showers on the 9th, 20-25cm at Dundee and Edinburgh by the 12th (the heaviest snowfall there since 1955) and undrifted snowfall totals between 50-80cm in NE England/SE Scotland by the 13th. The largest totals were yet to come - the Atlantic began advancing forward on the 15th allowing weather fronts to track across southern England, instantly turning to snow as they hit the frigid air. Unusually, the cold block held the mild air at bay. It was as the block held the Atlantic low pressure systems at bay when the lowest temperatures occured. Across deep snow cover, the temperature fell to -21degC at Braemar on the 15th; -17degC was also achieved in the city of Edinburgh on the 17th. However, it would get colder. The second advancement of low pressure in the Atlantic lead to perhaps the most intense blizzards in UK history on the 18th/19th. The block allowed low pressure to undercut and draw in gale force easterly winds filled with moisture. This lead to apocalyptic blizzards across the southwest, a place usually sheltered from cold and snow. Level snow accumulated to depths of around 60cm at Dartmoor and Exmoor and 85cm at Nettlecomb in Somerset, though drifts of up to 6 metres were reported widely across Somerset & Dorset. Elsewhere, Cardiff saw 34cm with 8 metre drifts. Many lives were sadly lost in the exceptional blizzard. The coldest temperature came on the final day of the freeze; -22degC at Keith (Grampian Region) on the 20th. Also on the 20th came heavy freezing rain in the south, adding to an already wintry scene. After this the cold relented and the low pressures in the Atlantic could finally pass through. In a complete twist, the rest of February 1978 was very mild and 15degC was recorded in London on the 23rd. The rapid thaw caused a great deal of flooding. However, some remote parts of the SW remained cut off from civilization until the 24th. The rest of the month featured a mixture of mild, cloudy and foggy weather and occaisonal thunderstorms brought in on southerly winds. Overall, February 1978 has a C.E.T. of 2.8, the coldest February since 1969. A very mild final week meant the month wasn't overall that cold in the record books, similar to January 1982. The U.K. wasn't alone this month as a ferocious Nor'easter gave a historic dumping of snow across the east coast of the USA from the 5th to the 7th (similar to the recent Nor'easter across Boston, January 2022); the second in a trio cluster of extremely cold winters across NA from 1976-77 to 1978-1979; you can read about that extensively elsewhere. Share your memories of this month!
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Post two photos to show the difference of this February and last year (late Feb. into early March) #BeastfromtheEast versus record breaking UK warmth (21.2c today in London 70F) Mine from East Lothian
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A busy spell coming up, as the beast from the east arrives. As the focus of the model thread is often a bit further ahead, for those wanting to talk more exclusively about the shorter term outputs, we do have a short-range thread up and running. (You're still welcome to discuss the shorter term in here too though). This thread is all about discussing the models - but we have loads of other options for other topics: As always, please keep it to the models in here, and head over to the banter thread for any moans, ramps and general chat. For threads related to the cold spell, met office forecasts, the winter overall and much more on top, please take a look at the general weather forum: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-winter-and-general-weather-discussion/ And finally, if you're wanting to chat about your local weather, the risk of snow in your particular location etc, then the regional threads are for you: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/ Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Snow forecast and precip type Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere
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The Netweather Winter Forecast has been issued! The title this year, is 'A Winter On A Knife Edge' https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal Thanks to Ian Simpson (aka @Thundery wintry showers) for his efforts in putting it together. Looks like we could be in for a really interesting winter, with increasing chances of some proper cold...