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https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

Already on S, and this one has quite a wide field of play in its forward progress. It will definitely become a major hurricane, whether this affects the Leewards, or Bermuda..... Or indeed takes the Southern lean and hits Florida!!

Invest 99L has become Tropical Depression 5, forecast to become a Hurricane within 96 hours. Track right now takes it through the Lesser Antilles before a likely recurve towards Haiti. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Although i don't usually like making threads for FISH storms this one is forecast to move west for a few days first so will be with us for potentially the next ten days. It should also get quite strong and be a good ACE producer. In terms of track the movement is generally WNW with a turn towards the north west in a few days however the remains of Sally and Paullete either side then start trying to tug Teddy (Euro actually tries to absorb ex Sally's upper low as it goes extra-tropical). NHC bring this to major status by day 5 (shear might be more of an issue afterwards) however the SHIPS model gives a 53% chance that Teddy is 100KT in 72 hours (10.2 times the mean).

98L in the Central Atlantic has now been declared Tropical Depression 13. Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL There has been little change in the organization of Tropical Depression Thirteen during the past several hours. An area of ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the Canadian/HMON on the north side. Overall, the envelope has shifted a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus models, is also nudged southward. The new track calls for the cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h. Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian models are between these extremes. The weak GFS solution appears to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the cyclone. Between these factors and the possibility of land interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed little from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.2N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Track carries a risk from interaction with the Greater Antilles however Florida and the Gulf Coast are at risk. As alluded to in the NHC discussion shear is light although convergent (westerly) until day 6. Moisture and speed profiles are also good.

Despite being poorly organised it seems that TD8 has been born of 91L. A broad wave in the Gulf Of Mexico heading for the Texas coast. 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230840 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated center. The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with surface data over the Gulf. The cyclone should remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next day or so. However, since the system is not well organized, only slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model guidance at this time. The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/8 kt. This is more or less consistent with observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf. A continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 26.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON COAST 72H 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

As Tropical Depression 7 has now formed (radar would suggest an upgrade this morning to Gonzales) i thought i would create the customary thread. Models take this generally WNW through the Antilles and the Caribbean. Plus points are that shear is fairly light and dry air not currently a problem however an upper level high well north of the system is expected to increase the dry air and the speed of the storm (itself creating relative westerly shear as it speeds up), for this reason the storm is forecast by the Euro to die although the NHC keep it alive. As the upper level high is moving west faster than the storm it's best chance of survival is either to strengthen early and slow (steering currents are weaker the stronger the storm is) or to make it towards the western Caribbean/Gulf. Track is fairly south right now but the stronger it is, the more likely it will feel a weakness from a low exiting the east coast around day 6.

Just named jointly by Met Office and Met Eireann Yellow warnings at the mo, for Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, north Wales, northern England WEDNESDAY https://www.met.ie/warnings https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-19

Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet.. Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86593-se-england-and-ea-regional-weather-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3477618

The Atlantic has spat out another hurricane in the south carribean which looks to make landfall in Nicuragba. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230838 TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016 The satellite presentation of Otto has not changed much overnight, as deep convection continues to burst near the estimated center position in a small ragged CDO pattern. The latest Dvorak estimates are T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that will be the intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is already en route to investigate Otto later this morning. Vertical shear, currently analyzed at 15-20 kt, should lessen a little bit in the next 12 to 24 h, but given the ragged nature of the system right now, only modest strengthening is expected before landfall. Weakening is then forecast through 48 hours while the center moves across Central America. Once Otto reaches the eastern Pacific, gradual weakening is expected to continue due to increasing shear and a drier atmospheric environment. In fact, the 00Z GFS and UKMET model runs both show the circulation of Otto dissipating in 4-5 days, and the NHC forecast now shows a remnant low by the end of the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 72 hours and follows the weakening trend of the global models after that time. Otto is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 290/04, although it has been difficult to pinpoint the center overnight. The mid-level ridge currently centered north of Otto will build westward and amplify during the forecast period. As a result, Otto should turn westward and accelerate in the short term, bringing the center to the coast in about 36 hours. Later in the period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific. The latest official forecast is slightly north of and slower than the previous one through landfall, and then has been adjusted southward and faster late in the period. The new NHC track is closest to the FSU Superensemble through 72 hours and is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS after that time. Based on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.9N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.2N 82.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.3N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0600Z 11.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 26/0600Z 10.0N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 9.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 10.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

NHC has classified previous invest 97L as a tropical storm between Jamaica & the Honduras/Nicaraguan coast. See above link, 2nd advisory at 7pm bst.

50/50 chance of a TD from this development currently leaving the Yucatan peninsula & headed WNW around 10mph over the bay of campeche. Recon to investigate 94L tomorrow although dry air is evident nearby & shear will contine to affect, but sst's are highly favorable & the geography of the BOC helps development, Texan ridge steers westwards away from mainland southern states but we could see TS Danielle at mexican landfall late monday/early tuesday? More interest to whats become a volatile start to this years season!

Just when many thought the Atlantic hurricane season would be getting to a close, a new tropical cyclone has developed over the Bahamas. The system has been designated as Tropical Depression 12, and will be named Kate if it turns into a tropical storm. The forecast track from the NHC recurves the system gradually towards the northeast while the system strenghens slowly. In about 3 days, TD 12 will be absorbed by another low pressure area. Forecast track of TD 12 by NOAA. Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084006.shtml?5-daynl#contents

TD11 has become a Tropical Storm. Model spread in intensity and track is fairly high but it looks as though the system will be close to the east coast in a few days with a potential impact somewhere between Virginia and Newfoundland. With the moisture plume from 99L also tracking up the coast, rain totals where models show impact are excessive at as much as 10 inches of rain. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of the system, and restricted over the northern part of the circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt, which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of intensity. Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track forecast is very low. The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $ Forecaster Pasch Recon en route today.

TD10 has formed just east of TD9. It should be in a low shear environment with warming seas for the next 5 days and will be 60mph in 4 days according to the NHC. Dry air could be an issue. Track is WNW and slowing where the models diverge. Getting picked up by a trough would tug it north, the Euro apparently wants to keep it headed WNW though. A bit of hope casting perhaps but if it avoids being picked up by the trough or hitting shear or dry air then it probably stands the best chance of being a decent hurricane eventually (bar Danny of course). Likely to be no threat to land.

Tropical Depression 8 has formed near Bermuda. It will be caught by a trough late in the week so has little time as it heads north. Its large so won't develop too quickly but it should be 60mph when it goes extra-tropical and hits the jet.

Another Cape Verde system has formed. Track is generally west to north west and the NHC think it could be dying as it approaches the Caribbean as shear increases from day 4.

A tropical wave just off the coast of Africa has quickly organised into Tropical Storm Fred, with winds of 35kts. The storm has good banding features and deep central convection. Strengthening appears likely as shear is low and waters are warm. Fred is forecast to head northwestwards into a weakness in the ridge to the north, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge restrengthens. This puts the Cape Verde Islands in the firing line from Fred. Fred could be a hurricane as it moves through the islands, so a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch has been issued for the Cape Verdes.

The disturbance to the east of the remnants of Danny has become Tropical Storm Erika, the fifth named storm of the season. Track looks similar to Danny, but a bit more of a route to the north. Strengthening is expected.

We now have TD4. .. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015 The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level outflow is good to the south and fair to the north. The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus. The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression. However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt, the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH ....... ​

A non tropical low off the east coast of the USA over the Gulf Stream has transitioned into the third tropical storm of the Atlantic season, named Claudette. Claudette has winds of 45kts. Claudette is likely to be a very short lived tropical cyclone as races northeast into the high lattitudes. Weakening will probably commence as early as tomorrow as the storm moves over progressively colder water. There is a chance Claudette could gain a little more strength before this happens, but time is really running out.

The second tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic season has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, just offshore from Texas. Winds are at 45kts Bill is a fairly broad system and is not expected to strengthen significantly before landfall, which should occur in around 12hrs time. The primary threat from Bill will be heavy rainfall.

Subtropical Storm Ana Forms Near South Carolina http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2978

Tropical Depression 09L has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall on the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or so. If 09L does survive the trek over land, conditions are not favourable for restrengthening in the NW Caribbean.

The disturbance east of the Leeward Islands has become Tropical Storm Gonzalo, with winds of 35kts. Gonzalo is a small tropical storm, with a modest area of convection over the LLCC, but good banding features. Gonzalo is expected to strengthen as shear is low and waters warm at around 29C. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane prior to moving over Puerto Rico. Gonzalo is then expected to turn north around the western side of the subtropical ridge and move into open waters. By day 5, NHC have Gonzalo just shy of major hurricane strength. If Gonzalo doesn't suffer too much from dry air, rapidly strengthening is possible due to Gonzalo's small size.