The Enforcer

Yesterday's Fax Chart for lunchtime showed a dry interlude between fronts: Of course two troughs pop up out of nowhere to bring more torrential rain:

Or over the bridge, if the current conditions persist until then.

Classic Quotes #1: "The vortex is completely bust [insert range here always beyond T+120]." Reality: Rain. Classic Quotes #2: "[insert model acronym here] is crap." Reality: The weather is crap. Classic Quotes #3: "You don't need low uppers to get snow in a frontal situation" Reality: 2m temps, dew points, DAM, precipitation intensity etc etc all conducive to snow, uppers weren't - outcome: rain.

There has been so little sun here, I expect the shops have sold out. If they're not closed due to flooding.

My pet hate at the moment: cherry-picking specific perturbations from an ensemble suite. Surely the whole point of ensembles is that you are supposed to read them as a whole to provide the perspective against which any individual run sits. Otherwise it's an illusion of cold.

No sun here for over a week now, so trying a different location for the next five days: Stockport. Here's the latest 5-day forecast: Thursday: rain Friday: rain Saturday: rain Sunday: rain Monday: rain

Well quite. The very low success rate of genuinely cold charts beyond T+120 means that I cannot view them with anything other than a mix of intense scepticism and suspicion.

It wouldn't be so bad if the bands of heavy rain weren't interspersed with rain. This morning being a prime example. The last 'cold and dry' spell brought rain and flooding.

It can be predictable, but chiefly only where mild winter weather forms the basis of the prediction.

It's a nice image and all, but after 13 'anomalously' mild Xmases in a row, it would be more realistic to dispense with this myth and show a 'cloudy and wet' image as that is the predominant weather type. The exception being if the forecast is predicting that it would be predominantly cold and snowy, which it isn't.

Of course it's wrong - it's beyond T+300. At that range I've been predicted more snowfall so far this season than I've seen in the previous 5 winters combined. Actual = 0 falling snow, let alone any accumulations.

Just pop them in a gift bag.

Watson 8686 (Ecowitt clone) has been recommended, which fits within your budget.

Forget the hunt for snow, this winter is turning into the hunt for sun. OK, so today was always going to be really wet, but when it stopped raining at 2pm I thought I might see a sunset: But no, of course this has to happen: Why does this keep happening?

@Mapantz I know you're a bit of a weather station guru - would you mind taking a look at this please? Thanks, TE

Don't need a supercomputer to work out what's missing by T+0:

I don't get why there is surprise when support for a potential cold spell diminishes or disappears beyond the 5 day range. It happens more often than not, so the surprise should really occur when support for the cold spell doesn't diminish up to that range.

December 2023 so far: LP westerly winds - outcome = rain. LP southerly winds - outcome = rain. LP easterly winds - outcome = rain. LP northerly winds - outcome = rain. HP sat over UK - outcome = rain.

Hi, I wondered if anyone is able to advise whether any one of the three weather stations listed below is better than the others: 1. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bresser-Weather-Station-Control-German/dp/B0170A47DI/ref=sr_1_5?crid=3SEFGUJ66VHKP&keywords=bresser%2Bweather%2Bstation%2B5-in-1&qid=1702910290&sprefix=bresser%2B%2Caps%2C236&sr=8-5&th=1 2. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Official-Wunderground-WeatherCloud-direction-Temperature/dp/B0881W15PD/ref=sr_1_108?crid=1ZDN879CLTAOM&keywords=5%2Bin%2B1%2Bweather%2Bstation&qid=1702910923&sprefix=5%2Bin%2B1%2Bweather%2Bstation%2Caps%2C221&sr=8-108&th=1 3. ACCUR8 DWS5100 5-in-1 Complete Solar-Powered WiFi Weather Station with Weather Alerts WWW.WEATHERSHOP.CO.UK View your weather on the colour display, mobile app or online! The ACCUR8 DWS5100 5-in-1 Solar-Powered Wi-Fi weather station combines a modern compact design with the ability to publish your weather conditions... Cheers, TE

Six foot of snow and you slept right through it.

"Cold spell forecast with wind and rain."

Yes, being in a low-lying frost pocket at the base of the Chilterns doesn't help when mild air can just pile over the top. Are you now living in Atlantis?

Well at least they are not likely to get blocked by snow anytime soon.

I think they need to change the image here to a more appropriate one: Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2023/2024 | Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Long range weather forecast for the UK - Winter 2023/2024. Will it be a cold winter?

What else can I moan about? Ah yes, the last dry day on Saturday was forecast to be sunny, but didn't see the sun at all. Looking at the charts, this current procession of wet days seems to want to deny the sun a reappearance until next Monday. Oh joy.