The Enforcer

How long before any month with a CET below 6C is described as a 'cold' month?

The main problem is that bands of rain get stuck and don't clear. I quite regularly see them clearing the East coast, but it will still be raining here. No wonder the Ock Valley floods so easily.

And yet all that good work will be undone by the time the weekend is done.

Last 24 hours precipitation. No comment required.

I took my leap of faith and faceplanted in the river - last 24 hours precipitation:

More chance of seeing a meteor, a green rocket or aliens than snow in a cold spell in winter.

I remember that one, forecast at T+06z: dry; actual: hours of heavy rain. There has been more than one instance where rain was not supposed to reach my location in the most recent forecast, but ended up as far north as Manchester. There was one where an upper front popped up at T+0. Not sure why models couldn't detect it before then? I recall another band of rain that was supposed to skim South Wales and instead covered the entirety of Wales in heavy rain, all change at T+0. I am sure these examples only stick in the mind, because they are so unbelievably wrong at such short range and when there is zero or negligible departure short range it is 'no news', so that probably remains the majority. However, suffice to say that there is sufficient evidence to merit a 'watching brief' up to T+0.

Agreed - that's certainly not wishbone-wind direction.

Of course if the front attacks from the South, but when all opportunities for snowfall are considered.

You must be joking. Even when conditions favour snow and there is precipitation about, check the yellow circle (December 2022):

It is akin to writing an obituary for someone who hasn't died yet.

Well for a start, the chart is 5 days away. Last Monday was dry 5 days away and yet that had mostly light snow across large parts of the South. Secondly, the chart is not a high-resolution precipitation chart, so it doesn't contain any details, good or bad. Thirdly, even if a high resolution chart at T+6 says no, the verification is not 100% and nowcast would still need to be applied.

Impossibe to ascertain from a T+96 500hpa chart.

I saw it mentioned earlier that if 'dry' charts are forecast then it will be dry. However, I don't agree with that analysis, because, frankly, the charts are hopeless at modelling precipitation. Even the hi-res ones I have seen, let alone the low-res ones that are more frequently posted on here. There was a week in late autumn where two storms were forecast with yellow warnings over SW & CSE. On one of these the actual was a short period of light rain, on the other there was light winds and no rain. On another day that week when only a few showers were forecast the actual was heavy rain for about 6 hours. And then there was Monday 8th Jan across the South. I have talked about favourable teleconnections analysis then requiring a giant leap of faith to translate into something tangible snow-wise. However, you don't attempt that leap now - you do it at T+0. Yes and no. I am desperate for a day of snow, but highly sceptical of any detailed output at range, irrespective of what people say the background drivers are forecast to do. So now there has been one below average week with a colder one to follow. None of the stinker runs shown at various points have come to fruition over this period. This feels like a victory. See above for my opinion on micro-details. Moreover, this colder and drier interlude is critical in allowing flooding to recede and an opportunity to repair flooring, fencing, gutters and walls that all got trashed during 4 weeks of incessant wind and rain.