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Everything posted by nsrobins

  1. nsrobins

    Tour 2

    Next week starts quiet then ends well according to GFS. The models in the US are as prone to misleading us as they are in W Europe at the 120hr + range it must be said.
  2. Sounding for Canadian 00Z Weds. Serious helicity just east of DL in 70+ dps.
  3. Canadian is good - The Old Cattle Exchange serves as good a pepper steak as you'll likely to get this side of Amarillo
  4. If I may be obliged I'll start this one for today's likely severe threat - the highest risk so far of classic DL activity. RAP places over 4K of CAPE under a lid which will break around 23Z as the sharp DL bulges into the E TX panhandle. Combination of soundings (impressive shear) and composite radar puts me around Memphis to Headley, TX for the coffee stop and check of conditions.
  5. nsrobins

    Tour 2

    GFS now firming up on the pattern from Sat 20th. I think the weekend looks quiet with a ridge moving east but Monday onwards should see rich moisture return North bringing several rounds of severe into next week.
  6. Cheers Paul - always plenty to do on down days. Where exactly is the Twistex memorial?
  7. KAMA sweep picking up a decent broad rotation on the Matador cell at all levels.
  8. Tornado watch imminent. The detail includes a reference to the very cold tops to the hail layer. I hope you've got your hail helmets ready! Could be a 'cracking' start to the tour.
  9. Based on a hunch the current crap will throw an OFB in its wake, I'm thinking a shuffle to the Hollis/Gould area in time for afternoon tea.
  10. Paducah/Childress on the Caprock apron for me later. Let the games begin. now go to sleep lol
  11. nsrobins

    Tour 2

    I will take what I'm seeing for the 19th - 25th May at the moment - high E Conus and a nice feed into the Midwest from the Gulf. Decent looking upper jet too.
  12. Interestingly another potential set up which failed to produce. This seems to be a theme this year. So we go into a week now of an amplified pattern with a ridge of death over the central conus. Later on the moisture will return a troughing emerges from the desert so I see activity increasing from around the 10th May.
  13. This afternoon might be one of those 'everything clicks' events for LA and west MS. Should an MCS develop midday and move east above a returning moisture stream, the OFB will trigger substantial convection in the rich environment close to the gulf coast. I would certainly make the trip across from TX if I was on my tour today. I suspect upgrades in outlook will be considered
  14. Some easing of the active pattern going into this week with more robust moisture returning into week two of May but too early to be specific for Tour 1. The period 5th to 9th May looks quite ridgy so I'm glad I've gone for the late May option again this year.
  15. 19th April: Initiation imminent in a narrow zone of SW NE just below the warm front shown on mesoanalysis in next few hours. Quite impressive directional shear in that area actually according to RAP. The season keeps producing - will it continue into May?
  16. Hi Can anyone offer advice on how to stream live independently of the mainstream hosting sites? I've been looking at Severestudios but find it quite clunky. How do NW place their GPS marker on a map with radar overlay? Is there simple code for this? cheers
  17. Portions of the current MDT risk area bring primed for upgrade to HIGH risk next hour as it appears models have underestimated the PWT influx (dry bias). A long night to come for Dixie Alley.
  18. I got my authorisation 48hrs after application. Check again tomorrow.
  19. Not looking too good for Alexandria.
  20. Sun 2nd Apr: Leesville to DeRidder, LA on the 27 for me. Some dps typical of this raised early season situation, and critically up to 400 SRH. Large discrete supercells possible in the warm sector.
  21. I'm very saddened by this news. Have watched Kelley and Randy's streams on many occasions and enjoyed their Missouri-style take on things. And they chased everything, sometimes being the only crew on the road. In equally saddened by some of the comments I've seen about it. Accidents caused by lack of concentration can occur at any time and on any road and it's something anyone getting behind a wheel would do well to remember. My thoughts go out to the families of Kelley, Randy and the young man Corbin who was also a chaser. Chase on in heaven guys.
  22. So the very late spring like pattern continues into April looking at the medium term models. Sat/Sun could be quite big central plains.
  23. A series of impulses and quite a 'late Spring' feel about the pattern. Hopefully it isn't using up all the potential before May. Tues looks fairly high end compared to tonight just going by richer moisture return. Mind you high based discrete supercells can be visually stunning.
  24. I back up Caxton. Pre-load before you go when you think the rate is good and you'll always get one of the best rates available anyway. Easy to manage online to top-up, etc. Luckilly I predicted the Brexit effect and got a transfer loaded on 18th June last year at $1.43/£. Not looking so good now though.
  25. 'Pending Authorization' Interesting. Never had that before. Must be because my mother is Mexican and my grandfather is a Zulu Anyone else got a 'pending' ?
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