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Everything posted by nsrobins

  1. The range 12-15 days is waxing and waning with regard severe potential but I guess this is typical. Only yesterday the period 22nd-27th May was looking very good but this morning we have a E GOM low that cuts the moisture feed. The bottom line is it doesn’t matter a jot what the models say until the afternoon I get to DFW - then I really get interested!
  2. I remember that Amarillo storm - it was a prolific lightning producer. The longer range for T2 has improved again after taking a swing towards ridging. Some of the charts (GFS) for 23-28th May look very tasty again. I love a late May DL/WF setup with insane CAPE
  3. I think you did pretty well to get on THE storm of the evening without worrying about the quality of the stream.
  4. You might be OK in the Sydney/Bridgeport NE area if RAP is anything to go by. Seems quite keen on up to 60F dps in the low upslope region around 22Z. Sim reflectivity develops what look like elevated storms.
  5. Good decision. The IL risk has receded further east, and with a three day risk in KS/NE from today I’d be taking the more relaxed option travel wise.
  6. All the best to the intrepid chasers and the tour teams. A rather quiet mid-May pattern looks likely but as we’ve seen so many times a risk can develop out of nothing sometimes and you’re in good hands with Paul - if anyone can get you on a storm he can.
  7. Longer range ensembles hinting at an active pattern from 14th May with the end of May climatologically returning the highest risk of tornadoes in the central plains. As May 24th 2016 proved you can get a career day even in a slight to enhanced set up. Get the DL and OFB position right and you can hit the jackpot. I’ll be on tour from May 25th this year so might meet some of you on the chase.
  8. Arnett, OK. The 283 corridor maxed out for tor potential this afternoon.
  9. Boarding after one leg of a multileg trip is definitely not allowed. The check in is only valid at departure of first stage and for ticket purposes multiple legs are considered to be one trip. Its a pain I know.
  10. Just to clarify I’m not in situ - just playing the virtual game. It’s actually quite a good way to practice for the real thing
  11. Not a good start. The DL has done me a kipper and has been a lot slower advancing east this afternoon leaving AR with crud and seeing the main line firing further west. I am out of position virtually by about 300 miles.
  12. There you go. Up to MDT, 15% risk and a PSWO for my ‘target’.
  13. Just flexing my chasing muscles ready for the trip this season. Some decent risk of a tor or two this evening: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html My target would be a discrete cell early in the Benton/ L Rock area but watch those trees!
  14. Really good work. The funnel at 4:50 looks anticyclonic which is quite rare.
  15. It's been an effort this season for sure Paul. I was thinking Weds (today) would be a decent opportunity but I see the 09Z HRRR has dropped pretty much all initiation in far E NE later (where the sig tor is greatest). Hope you get something to round off the trip.
  16. Yep some fairly high sig tors in the lively surface ESE flow. Torrington, WY for me.
  17. Heading North may be the only option for the next five days. It's an early shift in the pattern but it's been a strange season.
  18. Great work in an otherwise quiet period. I assume you're not heading to N Dakota today?
  19. I actually think you'll see stuff today Tom. Shuffle up the I70 to Deer Trail and in a few hours you'll catch the line of upslope activity currently forming along the front range.
  20. Straw clutching, but we are under what I believe to be a weak CVZ running through EC KS at Lyndon, KS. Cu field developing. Surface flow SW, T 81F, Td 55C. Will watch this for a bit as HRRR still have a few storms firing here next hour.
  21. We are also in KS next two days before heading south for flight home. I'm hoping the boundary will fire elevated structure in 55-60dps (scoured a bit by last night's showers). We will start in Strong City/Emporia KS.
  22. Mad day in a really soupy atmosphere. Highballed from Hays, KS and tried to keep up with the Missouri stuff until Springfield, then noticed MDS for NE OK just as explosive development started. Stayed with a few cells dropping decent wall clouds and now in Tulsa with a lightning show. We are in Arkansas tomorrow as we'll chase anything!
  23. HRRR played a blinder today and bullseyed the cell of the day. Everything but a tornado and an attack of the killer tumbleweed in the outflow near Joes. Also several 'dust ups' as Zoe called them. Great day. Legged it east to Hays to be in range for far SE Kansas by 2pm tomorrow.
  24. Going W towards Limon on the I70. AgCu field to the west in Denver area. Already deep enough to show on radar. Pretty much spot on with the 15Z HRRR. Northern target likely not a bad choice today. Subtle boundary also evident draped to our north going east shown by sirrus line. Game on.
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