nsrobins

Sitting close to Clay Center KS watching potential convection on an OFB just to our west. Challenging forecasting today! edit : position

I believe it’s the first day for T3 so welcome to the Plains and buckle up. I’ll start today’s thread with a challenging target forecast. We’re in McCook, NE after insane chasing of a monster supercell around Imperial and Holyoke yesterday (along with the hordes). Today is tricky - boundary low on meso W KS will drift east today and interact with the WF and ?OFB in far E KS - CAMs suggest convection initiates around 20Z. I might go against SPC and target the area just north of the triple point for max kinematics - initial target Hebron, NE then monitor real time. Edit - MOD risk 15% hatched. SPC obviously reading this forum lol

Sensational structure on a cell near Imperial, NE this evening:

You didn’t miss much Paul. Crudvection didn’t clear in target area and nothing got going. All the action is further west in NM and CO but that was too far. Overnight Perryton TX and looking North tomorrow.

I believe it’s change over day for the NWx tours so here’s a thread for today. We arrived last night and are about to depart DFW area for the OK Panhandle for today’s play as storms fire off the DL. Blending HRRR and RAP I’m thinking a discrete cell may get going around Liberal, KS from 22Z but it’s a 390mile hike so we’re going to get motoring.

Tour 3 model update. The only ‘more relaxed’ days in the 27th May - 4th June period look like Thurs and Fri next week. Multi day risk with a few moderate risks likely especially Tues 27th and again next weekend.

SPC now on radar for early next week. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Reports of extensive damage in Jefferson City, MO. Strong couplet moved right over the city at around 12.20am local.

I concur, but GFS has done well with upper vectors this season. Also note Weds risk E KS/Misery area

Tues 28th could be high end as the trend continues for a 100kn+ 300mb jet streak overtopping 70+ moisture advection into N OK/ S KS. I’d like surface winds to be more SE but it’s mesoscale stuff.

Nice summary Roger. In any science it’s the experience from mistakes that improves skill for future events. I too was watching the DL and once it delayed it’s eastward surge, and subsequent interaction with the W-E boundary, the risk was lowered. That and the relative failure of open warm sector convection where shear was maximised and a dangerous outbreak was averted. And for the record I am one reader of this forum who would never ‘wish’ for a severe event such as what was modelled yesterday. Give me a discrete photogenic supercell in the open prairie of N Kansas anytime over a soupy clogged-up Oklahoma day.

The chaser convergence last night looked as bad as I’ve seen and OK moderate risk is well known for bringing the Yahoo brigade out in their hordes. I was on the Dodge City EF4 in 2016 and despite there only being one road N-S and hundreds of chase vehicles everyone behaved fairly sensibly (pull all the way off the road please!). Mind you that was a slight risk/OFB play and only the expert forecasters were on it in time

Interesting night. Clearly a technical bust for the high-res models as the free warm sector failed to clear of cloud in time and also failed with the impressive push of cold air from the NW. Another example of how the weather can challenge the best of us (SPC high risk) but it works both ways and a slight risk will come along again that spawns a monster.

First of the ‘hyper’ cells firing N of Childress. In about half an hour anything that fires in the free warm sector will explode and rotate within 10 minutes

Yep apologies for earlier - many online TV streams in the US have put restrictions in to overseas IPs. Need a VPN - I subscribe to Nord but free ones are available.

NWx not streaming this year. Best try something like https://livestormchasing.com/map but on PC as the mobile site is rubbish. Or tune in to local TV online (KFOR for OKC) - they always break into weather when severe is confirmed or highly likely. I’ll be streaming on this year’s tour but I’m five days late for this event - that said, something tells me early next week could see a similar higher end event.

For chasers and researchers alike there’s always a tricky balance between expecting high-end activity and hoping the impacts are minimised. No one wants to see damage or casualties on these sort of days but the bottom line is it’s going to happen whether we like it or not and chasers in the field can benefit the communities in the risk areas by calling in reports that trigger warnings that in turn give people a few precious minutes of time to react.

For T3 GFS and ECM still trending Mon 27th -Thurs 30th May as potentially active days with increasing signs of a closed low centred far SW NE Tues/Weds. Possible scouring of moisture thereafter but again that’s a long way off.

Great reports and videos - much appreciated. As suspected an active few days now underway with a potential major OK dryline day on Monday should the NAM be on the money.

Early week beg 27th May Mon-Thurs looking tasty still. Upper profiles push a 300mb 110kt jet across the central plains above more than sufficient low level moisture multi-day. Still a long way out though.

That’s interesting. I hire a jetpack mifi on Verizon for $100 (2weeks); 2G free then $10 per G after that (which with streaming and constant GR updating plus the kid’s facebooking etc soon adds up). I can spend an extra $200 a trip no problem. If I bought one (around $220) and then linked it to an unlimited data package for just one month I’d pay for it on the first trip. Will look at this next week when I’m out. RadioShack used to sell mifi dongles but they’ve all but shut down now.

I like the look of far SW NE tomorrow

But you don’t want the cap to drop that quickly A really active period coming up right through to the end of May I reckon. Good chance one of those days will be a ‘biggie’. Hope you chase virgins are strapped in tight!

Tom - the end of Bohemian Rhapsody is not really a spoiler - it’s based on actual events after all! Enjoy T2 - it’s looking very active from Thursday on.

Yep there’s some high-end potential showing up for next week if GFS is to be believed. Strong 300mb profile W/E across the central plains and plenty of moisture return. I might be arriving a few days late.