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nsrobins

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Everything posted by nsrobins

  1. Tim and his team should not be confused with the Yahoos. The debate about the increasing recklessness of chasers has been coming for a while, but this tragic incident should not be perceived as one involving weather tourists or those who choose to take a risk too far for that ultimate video of photo. Yes they were undoubtedly in the field on Friday evening, and were as caught out as all of us by the deviant jog North of the main core, but Tim and his team were not risk takers.
  2. Tim was a leading figure in tornado research, his work being featured in many publications and on the Discovery Channel. I remember several instances when Tim and his team stopped to help victims of tornados in the field. My thoughts go to Tim's family, friends and the many storm chasers who had the pleasure of meeting him. RIP.
  3. Pencil me in for this please - it's about time I got to meet you all.
  4. Here's an interesting chart. It displays the number of days since the last tornado warning issued by each local NWS office: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/nws/days_since.php?phenomena=TO&significance=W Most of OK at 25 days and NC TX at 92 days. Just about sums-up the season so far, although I have a suspicion that it's all about to change.
  5. More steps in the right direction on the overnight GFS for the middle of next week onwards (8th on)Increasingly decent overall synoptics and moisture return into the southern plains - detail at this range taken with low confidence of course but it's not half bad at this stage now.
  6. You don't have to sell it to me Paul and I'm not going LOL.There is absolutely nothing I'd rather be doing this May than chasing storms and steak on the high plains, but unfortunately work and research and home issues once again preclude me from doing what I love to do.I will however happily settle for a virtual role following the tour in the cool twilight of the late Hampshire spring and wish you all plenty of good fortune in finding the storms.
  7. Indeed Paul and that's why I was asking. Meagre pickings from now (structure only for Weds) until into next week with the dreaded death ridge set-up across the west/central CONUS. Maybe a bit of upslope and lee circulation off the colorado plataeux but I can't see too much of a more organised threat until, coincidentally, the 9th May when the ridge finally dissolves SEwards and moisture return commences again in earnest.The only plus point is that decent rich gulf moisture will consolidate in situ (in theory) ready to be unleashed into the Southern Plains.
  8. Have I missed something - is Tour 1 now in the field and if so is there any news?
  9. Welcome Jo and i hope you enjoy your experience on NW.
  10. So some mixed messages filtering through concerning the potential for the next few months. The story so far has been the magnitude of regular CF scouring events which strips the Plains of heat and moisture in quick time. Certainly April has seen some late snow events for the Northern Plains which means the snow cover will be longer in dissipating this year. OK you could get some extreme temp gradients as we go into May but it's only one pin on the map as far as decent storm chances go so we need to see post frontal moisture returns increasing in magnitude, which given the Gulf is actually at or even a tad above normnal sst this year could be a plus point.I too am leaning towards a late (ish) surge in storm events this season with the period May 20th to June 5th probably containing a couple of outbreak type events, but whatever happens the tours need to be prepared for downtime and also to scoot long distances to get to the storms early to mid-May.
  11. I shall be tracking this one, especially as it's a Saturday night. The location of initiation will be a tricky one with a rather complex collection of potential boundaries in place over the region, more especially OFBs from early morning clutter. The overall parameters however are pretty much top-drawer for a high-end event and actually are not far off (at the 2 day out range at least) those from the 27th April outbreak in AL/MS last year. Not surprised a few UK based chasers have elected to scoot over for this one.
  12. Really looks like a late winter slammer this evening where very modest instability (600 or so max CAPE and low EHIs) is offset by big shear values (deep SRH of 800+ on the Lexington, KY sounding for 23Z) Log-track EF3s a definate possibility in the corridor from mid-TN up into KY.
  13. Upgrade for TN valley this evening - MODERATE risk with some strong tornados possible. Rich moisture and a really impressive 60kn LLJ. Could be worth a look on the streaming later.
  14. I can't start a new thread so I'm posting in here. http://www.newson6.com/story/16678514/storm-chaser-killed-in-wrong-way-turnpike-accident I was very upset to learn today that chaser and photographer Andy Gabrielson was killed in a car accident in Oklahoma last week. Andy was very well known on the chasing circuit and a regular poster in Stormtrack. He also captured some of the best footage I have ever seen and his nowcasting skills and willingness to stretch the boundaries meant he was often in the sweet spot. Andy was just short of 25yrs old. I should add that the accident was not chasing related. He leaves a 3-yr old daughter. RIP Andy.
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