nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Arkansas City, KS a decent punt - latest sounding for that location at 00Z maxes the directional shear with an ESE surface flow veering rapidly to WSW at 600mb.
There are as Nick and Paul have mentioned limiting factors today, not least the crud that needs to clear through in the next hour.
And just as I post I get an SPC alert for upgrade to MDT and they even mention the hodograph. I haven't cheated honest LOL.
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Well now - latest RAP pushes DL further east and with it goes the risk.
At 21z I am now moving across to the I35 corridor just S of Wichita KS
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A mid-May feel to the charts today and a potential MDT upgrade for tornados off the DL.
04ZRAP has me in Medicine Lodge KS with good road links in all directions. Prime chase and viewing country actually.
Could be a few significant tornados this evening.
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Interesting. RAP develops a single discrete supercell Wichita Falls from 21Z.
Could be the lone monster you alluded to Paul.
And agree Weds is the first of two big days in KS then MO/IL
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Next raised risk on Weds evening.
NAM progs some decent instability with potential loaded gun set up should the cap erode.
Overlaying EHI and SRH I'm going to head for EC KS
Incidentally although I have no planned tour this year I will probably go out for a high risk week at short notice and have kept the middle two weeks of May fairly quiet work wise for that purpose. If anyone fancies joining me should the conditions prove favourable you're more than welcome.
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I'd be sitting patiently in Carthage again or maybe edging a bit NW into far SE KS.
Latest surface obs show quite a backed surface flow in this area and RACY has CIN dropping away shortly so expect rapid development here next hour.
I think the tor risk as indicated earlier is a bit more enhanced that SPC forecast (IMO). -
Good luck in the trees....................Chainsaw ordered!
You taking one with you this year Paul? I have a feeling log cabin country is going to festure this season
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Enhanced risk especially S MO this evening as decent moisture returns yet again.
A few tors possible.
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Good call Nick and at last we're up and running.
Sweet spot could be as it often is right on or just North of the WF with the greatest directional shear overcoming the modest CAPE.
If I was to pin a map for a tornado or two I'd be in Carthage, MO for about 20.30 UT
I see latest vis has a Cu field developing already.
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Really looking forward to another chase season and supporting the teams from my virtual HQ in sleepy Hampshire.
Also getting some further practice as I'm heading out next season 2016 for the first time in some years so hoping to hit the ground running.
Are there any changes to streaming tech this year - it would be fair to say that sometimes it didn't perform quite as well as it might (blank spots aside which is unavoidable)
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Interesting article from SPC about the very low number of watches so far.
It is reasonable to suggest low start seasons don't always lead to low count Springs, so no need to get too pessimistic yet!
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Just to add it's been a pleasure following the action and another year of learning new tricks for forecasting.A rather quiet season tornado-wise (although the Guru Sherman seemed to find most of what was on offer) culminating in an awesome double-tornado that unfortunately claimed at least one life in Pilger, NE.
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The teams have returned but the weather continues and a rather mid-season look this evening with some DL activity spreading from CO into NW KS/SW NE in the next few hours.Sharply backed surface flow around a subtle OFB should promote mesocyclones.
Also keep half an eye out for Sunday - possible significant tornado risk according to NAM.
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Wouldn't miss it for anything. Storm chasing is like a box of chocolates . . . .Going to take our chances with another Greeley monster today Neil. Want to be close to Denver for tomorrows flights as well. Thanks for following us this year
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Thanks Paul. Looks like a bit of Limon Love to end the tour?
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Not sure where we are regards day number as after the active few days in Nebraska it's settled down over the high plains with the season taking a standard meander through June now with structure and hail the main threats.Far northeast NE looks a fair place to be this afternoon for supercells given the sharp directional shear with height.
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Screengrab of velocity scan before system impacted Pilger, NE showing not 2 but 3 separate velocity couplets (courtesy: Jeremy Perez, Stormtrack)
http://www.perezmedia.net/misc/stormtrack/20140616/2014061601_Radar.PNG
I've never seen anything like that before, and wonder what the dynamics of that supercell (or merged cells) was.
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I don't think I've ever seen two tornados of such size in such close proximity before.
Really amazing stuff yesterday.
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Souix City may be spared as this cyclic beast skirts to the South but watch that new lone cell behind - could be another turner.
It is indeed - large violent tornado near Burwell now
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Last few passes has the cell jogging NE a bit - now a tad concerned about the Sioux City Metro
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Souix City may be spared as this cyclic beast skirts to the South but watch that new lone cell behind - could be another turner.
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Some disturbing feeds coming through of severe destruction in Pilger, NE just now.
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A quick post as currently at Manchester airport on iPhone and dodgy wifi but a fair chance of tornados in E NE from 21Z if the team is in that area?
2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Latest obs indicate the lobe of forcing is moving in just about in sync with projected max heating and crud clearance
PWO now issued