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nsrobins

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  1. nsrobins
    I'd be sitting patiently in Carthage again or maybe edging a bit NW into far SE KS. Latest surface obs show quite a backed surface flow in this area and RACY has CIN dropping away shortly so expect rapid development here next hour. I think the tor risk as indicated earlier is a bit more enhanced that SPC forecast (IMO).
  2. nsrobins
    You taking one with you this year Paul? I have a feeling log cabin country is going to festure this season
  3. nsrobins
    Enhanced risk especially S MO this evening as decent moisture returns yet again. A few tors possible.
  4. nsrobins
    http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/
  5. nsrobins
    Good call Nick and at last we're up and running. Sweet spot could be as it often is right on or just North of the WF with the greatest directional shear overcoming the modest CAPE. If I was to pin a map for a tornado or two I'd be in Carthage, MO for about 20.30 UT I see latest vis has a Cu field developing already.
  6. nsrobins
    Really looking forward to another chase season and supporting the teams from my virtual HQ in sleepy Hampshire. Also getting some further practice as I'm heading out next season 2016 for the first time in some years so hoping to hit the ground running. Are there any changes to streaming tech this year - it would be fair to say that sometimes it didn't perform quite as well as it might (blank spots aside which is unavoidable)
  7. nsrobins
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ Interesting article from SPC about the very low number of watches so far. It is reasonable to suggest low start seasons don't always lead to low count Springs, so no need to get too pessimistic yet!
  8. nsrobins
    Just to add it's been a pleasure following the action and another year of learning new tricks for forecasting.A rather quiet season tornado-wise (although the Guru Sherman seemed to find most of what was on offer) culminating in an awesome double-tornado that unfortunately claimed at least one life in Pilger, NE.
  9. nsrobins
    The teams have returned but the weather continues and a rather mid-season look this evening with some DL activity spreading from CO into NW KS/SW NE in the next few hours.Sharply backed surface flow around a subtle OFB should promote mesocyclones. Also keep half an eye out for Sunday - possible significant tornado risk according to NAM.
  10. nsrobins
    Wouldn't miss it for anything. Storm chasing is like a box of chocolates . . . .
  11. nsrobins
    Thanks Paul. Looks like a bit of Limon Love to end the tour?
  12. nsrobins
    Not sure where we are regards day number as after the active few days in Nebraska it's settled down over the high plains with the season taking a standard meander through June now with structure and hail the main threats.Far northeast NE looks a fair place to be this afternoon for supercells given the sharp directional shear with height.
  13. nsrobins
    Screengrab of velocity scan before system impacted Pilger, NE showing not 2 but 3 separate velocity couplets (courtesy: Jeremy Perez, Stormtrack) http://www.perezmedia.net/misc/stormtrack/20140616/2014061601_Radar.PNG I've never seen anything like that before, and wonder what the dynamics of that supercell (or merged cells) was.
  14. nsrobins
    I don't think I've ever seen two tornados of such size in such close proximity before. Really amazing stuff yesterday.
  15. nsrobins
    It is indeed - large violent tornado near Burwell now
  16. nsrobins
    Last few passes has the cell jogging NE a bit - now a tad concerned about the Sioux City Metro
  17. nsrobins
    Souix City may be spared as this cyclic beast skirts to the South but watch that new lone cell behind - could be another turner.
  18. nsrobins
    Some disturbing feeds coming through of severe destruction in Pilger, NE just now.
  19. nsrobins
    A quick post as currently at Manchester airport on iPhone and dodgy wifi but a fair chance of tornados in E NE from 21Z if the team is in that area?
  20. nsrobins
    'That was big - that was very big' Excellent stuff Paul - thanks for posting.
  21. nsrobins
    Lone supercell just gone tor warned - very close to Philipsburg KS
  22. nsrobins
    Cumulus field developing N C KS around Hill City
  23. nsrobins
    The last few runs of RAP make a much better effort at generating ppn in the MDT area than earlier ones did.Based on the sharp DL bulge and a thin corridor of enhanced shear I'm going for Philipsburg, KS for initiation off the DL at about 22Z.
  24. nsrobins
    Yes I know - I was just thinking about where you might be today in respect of Saturdays risk being reachable.
  25. nsrobins
    Ah, is that what you call a busman's holiday? When you're up and about you may reconsider given that NAM progs some eye- popping CAPE in S NE on Sat evening. Dryline-tastic!
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