nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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I'll be hoping to hit the ground running on the 7th Paul and I'm planning on being joined by Tony Gilbert from the 12th.
If we don't meet under (or rather close to) a decent wall cloud we should at least share a steak or two one evening 😀
The only slight concern is the number of chasers that might converge on isolated supercells - it could get quite lively on the roads.
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Extended GFS brings moisture and troughing back into the Plains from 6th May.
Upper air pattern looks more favourable moving from 7th May into second week May.
I am therefore likely to hit the go button on a chase 7th - 17th May, hoping for two or three decent events. Of course you can never be sure but history dictates that the general pattern at the 10 day range is pretty well modelled these days. The finer details of course will be left to much nearer the time - namely between your first coffee of the morning and the lunchtime chilli burrito.
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As Paul said the plains more or less shut down now for a week at least.
Some minor events possible but the moisture doesn't return until around 5th May
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Surprised SPC don't have an Enhanced for C TX this evening. Sharp DL and plenty of moisture ahead of it with impressive instability Abilene and points East. Looped hodos scream a sig tor risk. Am I missing something?
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Is it me or is the SPC getting a little more cautious these days - not so much in the categorical system as I quite like the split of slight into marginal and enhanced, but in their wording. It was clear (or it could be strongly argued I should say) that last night was unlikely to produce strong tornados of any significance but in their update Day 1 they used 'intense' to describe any tornado that formed (TX/AR region).
The season is only a third of the way through but we've already seen plenty of unfulfilled expectation and a total bust or two.If I'm being 'virtual-centric' then I apologise. I may see things much more clearly once I'm tucking into my cheerios at the Great Western, Lewisville
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Friday, and a split decision looms from the three judges.
The choice of Northern target for potential earlier and more discrete cells, but lower instability and only a moderate tornado risk, or the Southern target for more instability, more complex storm modes with maybe only a few discrete cells but a much more tornadic environment with regard shear parameters (East of DFW)The DL looks a bit diffuse to me on the 06Z RAP. A very tricky one to call.
As I'm already 'in' SW KS I'm going to bank on a stalling DL and a slower surface low progression and pin the 281 between Pratt and Great Bend, KS
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I agree. Normally good signal cover in N Texas.It was fun watching though last night, some excellent feeds that didn't drop out.
I also like the increase in audio plus video. Makes it more entertaining listening to all the ranting and raving and swearing!
Fri pm looking quite tasty now with less signal for crud induced initiation delays.
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Last night was another example where facts didn't quite match expectation
The TP did the job early but progression East into better parameters didn't fire them up
Friday may be another similar case with capping and the moderation from early crudvection spoiling the party? But if ECM syncs then we could see one or two decent tubes in C KS
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Looking at Weds evening for the first real high-shear set-up. 0-6km vertical profiles of up to 60kn as a very stout upper jet pushes across the southern plains over an unstable environment.
May see an upgrade to MDT in later outlooks.
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If ECM is to believed today there is a risk of a severe end event in the southern plains this Friday. Caveats of course and GFS pushes the axis through faster but one to watch. We and I have several potential evenings of storms until then.
Here's hoping the now active season continues (for chasing purposes not those affected of course)
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Neil
Take a look at Google Earth, Eastern Arkansas from Little Rock and Pine Bluff eastwards to the Mississippi Delta have some of the most beautiful chase country in the USA Which rivals parts of Illinois and the Texas Panhandle, flat rice fields for a few hundred miles in a certain area around Stuttgart. Most people slag Arkansas for chasing but if you know where to chase it can be great.
Btw had a message from Tony Gilbert that you might be teaming up with him, lets hope for an active pattern to continue in May.
Best
Paul
Yes I agree - East in a line through LZK is excellent, but West to the OK border is trees and hills as you know. I chased this terrain on 10th May 2008 and the first I knew that a tornado had passed a few miles to our South was when we hit large trees in the road near Hot Springs.
Not been East of the river but I hear it's fairly flat and open - so long as you can cross the river that is!
Yes I am excited about teaming up with Tony but the pattern and timings have to sync.
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Too far North last night and the DL in OK was the best play.
Tonight sees super cells form in the E AR area moving NE and the risk of a tor or two increasing as a stout LLJ cranks into the region.
Topography about the worst it can be but virtually I'd be in Hope, AR near the I30
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Only a 5% tor risk tonight but given the near easterly surface winds on the KS/NE line id be sitting there and looking for the odd deviant motion from 20Z
Longer term and we're getting into mid range for the first NWx tour and also a potential chase for me.
Given the last few weeks id say the odds were good for a couple of outbreak set-ups at some point in May.
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I still think initiation imminent where I am in Plainview and these cells will have a slightly better environment to work with IMO
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And said crud takes me a tad further South than you guys to try to latch on to initiation in what I hope will be cleaner air just east of the DL in:
Plainview, TX
A tornado or two is possible from 00Z
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A couple of days of potential Thurs and Fri going by NAM. A fairly closed low looks set to establish itself in the Panhandle area - with associated moisture advection across N TX into SW KS.
Should be worth monitoring and the early season continues to present opportunities
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Evening virtual chasers
Some signals for a discrete supercell or two in the notch below the trailing front across C Texas this evening. Sufficient pockets of instability in 21C dps could do the trick and directional shear in abundance.
I'm doing some preliminary prep for a potential chase mid-May if an active set-up develops. Excited isn't the word!
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Discrete cells firing right down the CF now
The cell near Columbia has a fairly deep circulation
Tom Stolze
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Sometimes it's hard to explain why a potentially decent set up yields so little, and yet occasional marginal ones can deliver. I think the issue last night was moisture - the LLJ arriving to generate increased shear also pushed some dryer air in at around 800mb effectively pinching the updrafts. Just a theory. Also it was interesting to see how the WF started to retreat N in an 'unforecast' way.
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Looks like I should have stuck to my earlier target of Medicine Lodge! The chaser pack is scrambling back West to intercept the rapidly developing cells now W of Enid and moving towards the KS line.
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I tend to use TVN as they normally have a few audio feeds which are entertaining. For instance, Josh Alecci just now on TVN.
Elevated cells now developing and moving into OK due NE. I expect these to lower and become more severe over the next hour as they approach SC and SE KS.
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Latest vis sat. The clearance to the west is very well defined, as is the location of the TP.
(image courtesy intellicast)
2015 Virtual Storm Chase Thread
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
The flow and upper pattern across the CONUS becomes more favourable from the 5th May and extended GFS has a few potential risk days, especially 10th with a 70kn H500 above some nice surface instability in N KS area.
It would be fair to say the H500s aren't high end charts in terms of inducing deep shear but there will definitely be opportunities to be had, and maybe less risk means more gain with numbers on the roads lower.
As I do final preparations for my tour starting 7th May things are looking OK at the moment.