nsrobins

Friday, and a split decision looms from the three judges. The choice of Northern target for potential earlier and more discrete cells, but lower instability and only a moderate tornado risk, or the Southern target for more instability, more complex storm modes with maybe only a few discrete cells but a much more tornadic environment with regard shear parameters (East of DFW) The DL looks a bit diffuse to me on the 06Z RAP. A very tricky one to call. As I'm already 'in' SW KS I'm going to bank on a stalling DL and a slower surface low progression and pin the 281 between Pratt and Great Bend, KS

I agree. Normally good signal cover in N Texas. I also like the increase in audio plus video. Makes it more entertaining listening to all the ranting and raving and swearing! Fri pm looking quite tasty now with less signal for crud induced initiation delays.

Last night was another example where facts didn't quite match expectation The TP did the job early but progression East into better parameters didn't fire them up Friday may be another similar case with capping and the moderation from early crudvection spoiling the party? But if ECM syncs then we could see one or two decent tubes in C KS

Looking at Weds evening for the first real high-shear set-up. 0-6km vertical profiles of up to 60kn as a very stout upper jet pushes across the southern plains over an unstable environment. May see an upgrade to MDT in later outlooks.

If ECM is to believed today there is a risk of a severe end event in the southern plains this Friday. Caveats of course and GFS pushes the axis through faster but one to watch. We and I have several potential evenings of storms until then. Here's hoping the now active season continues (for chasing purposes not those affected of course)

Yes I agree - East in a line through LZK is excellent, but West to the OK border is trees and hills as you know. I chased this terrain on 10th May 2008 and the first I knew that a tornado had passed a few miles to our South was when we hit large trees in the road near Hot Springs. Not been East of the river but I hear it's fairly flat and open - so long as you can cross the river that is! Yes I am excited about teaming up with Tony but the pattern and timings have to sync.

Too far North last night and the DL in OK was the best play. Tonight sees super cells form in the E AR area moving NE and the risk of a tor or two increasing as a stout LLJ cranks into the region. Topography about the worst it can be but virtually I'd be in Hope, AR near the I30

Only a 5% tor risk tonight but given the near easterly surface winds on the KS/NE line id be sitting there and looking for the odd deviant motion from 20Z Longer term and we're getting into mid range for the first NWx tour and also a potential chase for me. Given the last few weeks id say the odds were good for a couple of outbreak set-ups at some point in May.

I still think initiation imminent where I am in Plainview and these cells will have a slightly better environment to work with IMO

And said crud takes me a tad further South than you guys to try to latch on to initiation in what I hope will be cleaner air just east of the DL in: Plainview, TX A tornado or two is possible from 00Z

A couple of days of potential Thurs and Fri going by NAM. A fairly closed low looks set to establish itself in the Panhandle area - with associated moisture advection across N TX into SW KS. Should be worth monitoring and the early season continues to present opportunities

Evening virtual chasers Some signals for a discrete supercell or two in the notch below the trailing front across C Texas this evening. Sufficient pockets of instability in 21C dps could do the trick and directional shear in abundance. I'm doing some preliminary prep for a potential chase mid-May if an active set-up develops. Excited isn't the word!

Discrete cells firing right down the CF now The cell near Columbia has a fairly deep circulation http://www.chasertv.com/ Tom Stolze

Sometimes it's hard to explain why a potentially decent set up yields so little, and yet occasional marginal ones can deliver. I think the issue last night was moisture - the LLJ arriving to generate increased shear also pushed some dryer air in at around 800mb effectively pinching the updrafts. Just a theory. Also it was interesting to see how the WF started to retreat N in an 'unforecast' way.

On the ground - Kelley Williamson https://tvnweather.com/live/ 6 miles SW Medicine Lodge

Significant gate to gate rotation Nr Petosi, S St Loius: http://fox2now.com/on-air/live-streaming/

Looks like I should have stuck to my earlier target of Medicine Lodge! The chaser pack is scrambling back West to intercept the rapidly developing cells now W of Enid and moving towards the KS line.

I tend to use TVN as they normally have a few audio feeds which are entertaining. For instance, Josh Alecci just now on TVN. Elevated cells now developing and moving into OK due NE. I expect these to lower and become more severe over the next hour as they approach SC and SE KS.

Latest vis sat. The clearance to the west is very well defined, as is the location of the TP. (image courtesy intellicast)

Latest obs indicate the lobe of forcing is moving in just about in sync with projected max heating and crud clearance PWO now issued

Arkansas City, KS a decent punt - latest sounding for that location at 00Z maxes the directional shear with an ESE surface flow veering rapidly to WSW at 600mb. There are as Nick and Paul have mentioned limiting factors today, not least the crud that needs to clear through in the next hour. And just as I post I get an SPC alert for upgrade to MDT and they even mention the hodograph. I haven't cheated honest LOL.

Well now - latest RAP pushes DL further east and with it goes the risk. At 21z I am now moving across to the I35 corridor just S of Wichita KS

A mid-May feel to the charts today and a potential MDT upgrade for tornados off the DL. 04ZRAP has me in Medicine Lodge KS with good road links in all directions. Prime chase and viewing country actually. Could be a few significant tornados this evening.

Interesting. RAP develops a single discrete supercell Wichita Falls from 21Z. Could be the lone monster you alluded to Paul. And agree Weds is the first of two big days in KS then MO/IL

Next raised risk on Weds evening. NAM progs some decent instability with potential loaded gun set up should the cap erode. Overlaying EHI and SRH I'm going to head for EC KS Incidentally although I have no planned tour this year I will probably go out for a high risk week at short notice and have kept the middle two weeks of May fairly quiet work wise for that purpose. If anyone fancies joining me should the conditions prove favourable you're more than welcome.