nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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I'm beginning to respect the HRRR ppn branch. Pretty much nailed the cells now approaching Lubbock. I will be scrutinising it closely early in the morning, as unless I'm missing something I still think SC KS is the prime play from 3pm.
Right, my 20oz ribeye has just arrived do laterz
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The shallow troughing at about H600 due to trigger initiation is just entering SE NM now (just seen a small cell pop up near Bennett on the 128). HRRR is still all over it in developing a cluster in the next hour south of Lubbock, but I suspect the upper wind support will not arrive until dusk hence the reason I am now in Amarillo. Good luck guys and on your mega-drive in the morning.
This is not discussion for Friday but suffice to say the jury is still out on SC KS or SW NE for tomorrow.
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Hi Paul. 15Z HRRR breaks out cells around Big Spring by 21Z, and a lone cell towards Lubbock off the DL.
I decided the position for Friday took priority so am currently in Lubbock and booked overnight in Amarillo. I can't decide to go for W OK Friday or the N KS/S NE target (a long drive) - both areas have pros and cons although I'm optimistic that for tomorrow we won't have a slowly clearing MCS issue this time (can't say the same for Saturday - even more tricky). I will do the haul to McCook, NE on Fri am if I think it maximises my chances on the last full day chasing this year.Have a good day whatever you decide to do and maybe I'll see you guys for a steak in The Big Texan later. PS: The motel there is fully booked - I'm in one within stumbling distance.
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In Ozona watching a nice lightning display now
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On route NW through Brady for San Angelo. Passed through a distinct OFB just now (rolling low cloud/fog) and now in clearer air. Can see the rear cirrus boundary to my West (I am not driving by the way whilst typing - that would be tricky LOL). Just picked up McCrapolds and now moving again.
I see HRRR still has cells firing Big Spring to Ozona in next three hours. Hoping to bag some structure at least to rescue the last few days. -
Sitting in the MCS (Mucky Crappy Stuff) in Fredericksburg. A few decent CGs but nothing else.
16Z HRRR has more discrete cells forming West of this area from 21Z (OFB, maybe forward edge of DL, but still in 65C dps) with shear enough to turn them in the lower levels (the RAP hodo has decent directional shear up to H400) so in a while I'll probably ditch Austin for San Angelo with cutting my mileage down for tomorrow for the trip North also on my mind. -
Perhaps the ongoing MCS has compromised the expected MCS?
I am still expecting a few stronger cells today beneath the main rain band, but according to update may have to adjust a bit east from here.
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Not that my confidence in either the SPC or my own forecasting skills is to be relied on given recent events, I'm currently in Brady, TX and planning to head down to Junction, TX on the I10 for overnight. Hoping to catch the MCS show later but more importantly I'd like to be able to chase anything that develops beneath the main rain band Weds - but this is conditional on fine tuning based on RAP first thing in the morning.
Otherwise I still have a move North in mind on Thursday to the TX Panhandle ready for Fri/Sat activities.
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Hi Guys. Hope your super long drive is over soon. I too have transferred south to Buffalo, TX (taking a few back routes on the way) to play with anything that develops in S TX Tuesday. I agree Thurs onwards looking juicy at the moment - here's hoping.
I have a blog up and running, and I too got some footage of the small funnels in W KS on Saturday evening.
We may meet again.
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Hi Paul and the team - thanks for the exciting few hours last night. Lost contact and with no data stream headed straight for Colby to sit out the follow-up squall and watch the lightning. Got some nice footage of the funnel(s) we saw near Cheyenne Wells.
Today I managed to get across to N of Kansas City by early afternoon but by then it was clear the risk was being bombed out by another MCS spoiler,so bust my chase and am now heading south (currently Nevada, MO) to be in position for a structure chase in C TX tomorrow. I'd like to visit The Alamo on Tuesday maybe assuming the far south TX risk doesn't tempt me.
Might catch-up with you guys again in the week.I see there's a beautiful supercell near Waco - bum!
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I ditched the crud in SW OK and have motored up to in Meade looking at a developing Cu field to my West.
Latest mesoscale pushing a plume of higher dps up between the DL and the OFB. SRHs will be high just to the east of the synoptic low due in OK Panhandle by 23Z.Hoping for a discrete supercell and tornados possible.
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I think it would be rude not to meet up! We all think you're a robot that no one had met yet!!!
Well I do have a pain in all the diodes down my left side. A prize of a free beer for anyone making the link on that one LOL.
I'm just S of Arnett, OK on the west edge of the anvil-crud-vection. Considering a shuffle east from here to see how the cell in SW OK develops - had a few rotation markers on it in last half hour.
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I've just posted on my blog that today (May 9h) I will be looking to moderate distance with potential and head up to Laverne, OK and monitor with a chili burrito. The 11Z RAP adjusts the surface low a tad back W at 20Z and consequently hodos appear a bit more favourable in far W OK than they were earlier. It all depends on this morning's activity moving away which it might be reluctant to do given it's trajectory.
I'll keep track of your location and if I appear on your tail I'll give you a wave.
Good luck today - the greatest danger might be the numbers on the roads. -
In Ekektra,TX under what remains of a forecourt. Just done a very careful trip from Vernon and there is clear damage all over - lorries overturned, trees down, but difficult to say if it was tornadic or not although the cell I've been tailing had a long-lived circulation and confirmed tornado. Massive amount of water everywhere.
If you guys are planning to go into dusk, usual care required as this lot is a messy mix of multiple hail cores and sporadic rotation.
Perhaps I could join you for tomorrow - a day that is less likely to be suitable for a lone ranger than today was.
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Hi Paul. Dress rehearsal today for the show tomorrow?
I'm thinking any cells that stay fairly discrete in the rich regime that exists just south of the loosely defined OFB draped just north of the Red River now will be the most likely to produce rotation, and have therefore located myself to Vernon now.
It's cloudy with the odd drop of rain but the almost total cloud cover is not especially low. On visible there's a notch of cleaner air pushing under the current cluster near AMA and this is the area I'm hoping will generate cells from 20Z.
You're chances of getting onto something once you pick-up all your guests are quite realistic IMO, maybe up towards Bowie on the 287.Good luck and needless to say safe chasing as it could end up being a dodge-ball chase as it gets dark and the LLJ increases vorticity.
PS: It is proving very difficult to analyse, map-read and drive all at the same time!
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There is a cell about 6 miles to my West that has had a TVS and has some low level gate.
I'm just off to collect my mifi - might go an take a look before it gets dark here.
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Some potential from the storms on the leading edge of the MCS tracking ESE from NW Texas. New MD out for north central Texas:
Indeed Nick - I don't need mesonet to tell me the atmosphere is strongly unstable here - super rich out there.
I'm nipping out to the local UPS depot to collect my mifi and antenna in about an hour - might catch something. In the meantime, where did I pack the gaffer tape LOL?
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Days Inn - Denton. Equipment set-up and static test. Ironically may not have to go anywhere to see something pass over in next three hours!
Now tracking my mifi delivery - it was refused at reception despite clear instructions.
Should add I'm solo but hope to meet up with the tour at some point - maybe under a meso tomorrow LOL
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Friday moving into MDT zone now. Sat looking silly. Cells plunging across the DL into SW OK riding circa 65kn H400 jet - not for the faint hearted but at least the topography and road grid is favourable - something a lone chaser like me appreciates!
I won't be out tonight - motel booked and gear to set up. Then it's three nights of action before a few days down (already have the Greensburg memorial on my radar - somewhere every chaser should visit IMO)
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Virtually targeting Mangum, OK today. Should be a very interesting day to watch unfold.
Not a bad location IMO, although watch those obs for a DL adjustment!
Last evening of virtual targets. Tomorrow for ten days it's for real!
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Becoming increasingly juicy for Tour 1 Day 1 on Saturday and might only be 3hrs from DFW. I expect at least a MDT from SPC in the Friday update. My GPS plug doesnt arrive until Sat do I might be tugging at the tail of the Sherman caravan for this one lol.
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GFS firming up and will be in NAM range by tomorrow morning.
Sat 9th looking like a higher end play on the DL in W OK, far SW KS. An impressive 75kn H50 streak will add plenty of shear above high cape just east of the DL.
I predict a possible 30% risk Day 5 in SPC's update this morning.
Big plains rollers drifting across W OK. Nice! -
SPC have a 15% probability now for OK/TX for Sat 9th. Tour 1 going to hit the ground running by the looks of things.
I'm almost there with prep - mifi and booster booked, car paid (note excess insurance seperate to reduce cost at desk), first night hotel Days Inn Denton Thurs/Fri if anyone is in the area for a catch-up.
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Hi PaulHi Neil
You still going with Tony ? Or doing a single person chase ?
Still looking nice from the end of this week for a more substantial risk
We are meeting now to discuss it. ATM I am solo until at least the 13th. Tony may come out then otherwise leave it until outlook looks higher end risk (maybe end May). I am going to San Diego fir business 18th May and my chase is tied in with that.
Whatever I'll see you out and about from end of next week.
Neil
Chase Day 7 - OK/KS/NE/SD
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
The primary target today is still W NE, but both 4km NAM and HRRR continue to wobble run to run with the positioning of the WF and hence greatest shear and vorticity. If anything the region has drifted North up to the SD border in the last few frames which for me is a hike too far (maybe not for the road warriors currently camped in Woodward, OK).
A combination of RAP, HRRR and a dose of luck may pin a secondary target in north and NE KS that should produce a few supercells from 21Z. There is a pool of enhanced helicity here that could represent the residual OFB and the DL (although still diffuse) does seem to punch into KS along or below the I70. By 21Z HRRR (08Z, 09Z not as good but will check the 10Z before jumping) breaks out one or two cells around Salina, KS in a high SRH environment. It's not warmfront play up in NE but it might produce and will make the trip into OK Saturday more bearable.