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nsrobins

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Everything posted by nsrobins

  1. 00Z Sat NAM if anything reinforced my view that Sunday evening could be a significant night for the Arklatex corner.My focus is on the directional shear values with H7 at nearly 60kts from the SW over a SSE surface flow.A sounding for Magnolia, AR has the sort of sigma-shape looped hodograph that makes you take notice. I would start the day in Texarkana ready for a move east or northeast.Edit: Strong words from the SPC this morning: PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
  2. For info, a decent summary of storm parameters used by SPC and chasers here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/begin.html Sunday RiskNAM 12Z more aggressive than GFS and I'm thinking a few significant supercells may form in the region Texarkana/Hope AR late evening as the LLJ cranks SRH to 400+This area and south of the I30 isn't too bad terrain wise, so long as storm motion doesn't take you into the trees you might be OK.
  3. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Sunday MOD risk just about exactly where you don't want to be topography wise.
  4. Saturdays risk dependant on the phasing of the speed max and DL with attendant richer moisture transport. As things stand the transition from high base to surface based cells may not occur until after dark so not conducive for chasing perhaps but dangerous nethertheless. Sunday's risk just in the 00Z NAM range and potential exists further east on the OK/AR line.
  5. Still looking like a multi-day outbreak in OK/KS Sat and Sun, although only GFS to work on still.Rich moisture transport circa 70+ dps pushing into the warm sector and a deepening surface low on the KS/CO border driving impressive shear values. Sat night could be major.
  6. What is the schedule for this year, Paul? I may be in the States for work mid-May and if so will likely get a few days off to chase - would be great to meet up.
  7. All quiet on the western front with the death ridge Nothing doing until after Easter I would think.
  8. The moderate risk is largely for hail. The more significant tornado risk lies further south down the I35 towards Gainesville TX IMO.A sounding here shows ample shear and the sort of looped hodograph that should generate helicity once the cap breaks. I might locate myself a tad further towards DFW - say Denton, TX - and look to chase NW into the late afternoon towards the Sherman area. Roads here OK so long as you avoid the lakes.
  9. Yes - second MDT of the season and it's only mid-April. Lifting warm front with attendant upper 60s dp gulf air across E OK Sun afternoon. Substantial risk of tornadic supercells near the triple point I would think. It is worth noting that some models push the CF through rather quickly which would imply the best conditions may be further south into N TX.
  10. For the MOD risk tonight I would like to be on the I35 corridor between arkadelphia and Malvern for the discrete cells lower down the dl. Not too Far East though don't like the trees in these set-ups
  11. I have limited access to data where I am today but a quick look at GFS indicates the risk this evening has shifted west to SW/CS OK with 3000+ cape and favourable hodos 18Z.Watch for supercells forming on the DL bulge and migrating into the warm sector.
  12. Yep looking fairly tasty SW OK Weds evening.
  13. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ And there it is on cue Paul. What are your plans for this season?
  14. Update on potential 27th - don't underestimate the power of the dryline.
  15. A Happy New Year to all you storm fanatics as we start another season. Slight Risk AR and Ozarks Thursday 27.3.14 night might be worth a look as moderate dps around 17C spread into the region - limited CAPE if realised may yield a few tornados with the decent looking shear. And so it begins.
  16. Residents in N Wales and Merseyside should take this warning seriously.If current imagery and data is correct, sting-jet conditions could potentially deliver gusts in excess of 100mph anywhere in this region this afternoon. Travel should be avoided and arrangements for early closures, etc may be warranted.
  17. Tim and his team should not be confused with the Yahoos. The debate about the increasing recklessness of chasers has been coming for a while, but this tragic incident should not be perceived as one involving weather tourists or those who choose to take a risk too far for that ultimate video of photo. Yes they were undoubtedly in the field on Friday evening, and were as caught out as all of us by the deviant jog North of the main core, but Tim and his team were not risk takers.
  18. Tim was a leading figure in tornado research, his work being featured in many publications and on the Discovery Channel. I remember several instances when Tim and his team stopped to help victims of tornados in the field. My thoughts go to Tim's family, friends and the many storm chasers who had the pleasure of meeting him. RIP.
  19. Pencil me in for this please - it's about time I got to meet you all.
  20. Here's an interesting chart. It displays the number of days since the last tornado warning issued by each local NWS office: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/nws/days_since.php?phenomena=TO&significance=W Most of OK at 25 days and NC TX at 92 days. Just about sums-up the season so far, although I have a suspicion that it's all about to change.
  21. More steps in the right direction on the overnight GFS for the middle of next week onwards (8th on)Increasingly decent overall synoptics and moisture return into the southern plains - detail at this range taken with low confidence of course but it's not half bad at this stage now.
  22. You don't have to sell it to me Paul and I'm not going LOL.There is absolutely nothing I'd rather be doing this May than chasing storms and steak on the high plains, but unfortunately work and research and home issues once again preclude me from doing what I love to do.I will however happily settle for a virtual role following the tour in the cool twilight of the late Hampshire spring and wish you all plenty of good fortune in finding the storms.
  23. Indeed Paul and that's why I was asking. Meagre pickings from now (structure only for Weds) until into next week with the dreaded death ridge set-up across the west/central CONUS. Maybe a bit of upslope and lee circulation off the colorado plataeux but I can't see too much of a more organised threat until, coincidentally, the 9th May when the ridge finally dissolves SEwards and moisture return commences again in earnest.The only plus point is that decent rich gulf moisture will consolidate in situ (in theory) ready to be unleashed into the Southern Plains.
  24. Have I missed something - is Tour 1 now in the field and if so is there any news?
  25. Welcome Jo and i hope you enjoy your experience on NW.
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