nsrobins

Good luck Tour 3 You might have to take a long trek North as the primary risk for the next three days exists on the high plains of MT and the Dakotas

I would without doubt be in the southern target now but those cells in my original target of Syracuse, KS area look very nice at the moment.

Well the OFB factor is the main player from now and Turkey to Plainview looks likely - nice flat terrain mostly on the W side of the target area.

You probably won't have to travel too far today from AMA to pick-up more supercells with tornado risk this evening. Two mesoscale regions catch my eye, namely the area just to your east around Canadian again and potentially an area that might see an earlier initiation and longer discretion on the KS/CO line adjacent to the lee trough, around Syracuse, but that target is three hours away. Hodos for 22Z however here show decent directional shear, although less speed with the core of the LLJ looking to affect the OK Panhandle.

Hi Paul On a number of occasions this season, including yesterday, HRRR has IMO a westward bias (possibly slightly incorrect modelling of DL placement and moisture axis). I might suggest basing your target on a position about 50 miles east of the first initiation progged by HRRR.

The Vernon cell is getting more organised by the minute now - it was where I would of been and looks a nice clear cell with potential. The swarm of chasers on the W Falls cell are tripping over each other to get away from the hail core - and a serious hail core it is too. Minimal options east where they are and the cell is moving due East. Whoops.

I highly recommend you get to Altus/Vernon/Crowell asap. I predict a few supercells initiating within an hour and the first few hours have favourable tornado indices before things line out.

Indeed. Mine were unceremoniously ripped from me in a tor warned HP torrent on the first day chasing SW of Wichita Falls on the 8th May, and one day I will go back and retrieve them from the flood they are currently submerged in. That cell E of Lawton has a decent inflow train, and as Paul says has attained quite a height already. I do however concur that it's a teaser and should be avoided in favour of tastier things yet to develop Altus to Childress.

No I returned last Friday having moved from the plains to San Diego for business. The weather in California was a lot less complicated than Texas and OK it has to be said! Next year I'll be out again, but not solo. Damn dangerous chasing on your own!Looking for a cu field on the DL in the next hour or so.

The tornado on the MX border has made news today, as have the floods. Aerial shots just now on Sky of river flooding across a wide area of C OK and NC TX. The amphibious vehicle may not be such a bad idea. OT and the DL play today actually looks quite 'sharp' with hopefully less grungy wet flops that have dominated the last few weeks. My target Altus, OK from 20Z

The situation in C TX now is an absolute nightmare. Flooded roads. bow segments and derechos, several tornado warned areas and total chaos down and around the I35 corridor from the river to Austin in a largely semi-urban or urban demographic. Not an environment to be 'leisure' chasing in to be perfectly honest. Wise choice to stick to the KS target today.

Don't think you're in too bad a position there in Elkhart. The highest chances of rotating storms is in the far SE of the expected risk area which takes you to just into the OK panhandle. Couldn't believe there was even more rain in C OK last night - it is getting ridiculous now in the season of floods and soaking wet HP storms.

Misty eyes! That storm has a moderate couplet to 1.5deg, so not just at the base. I wonder whether the cell moving into the south of Archer county is a bit cleaner and more likely in the next hour. Mind you, don't take my word for it - I had a habit of stopping for gas whilst tornados were on the ground!

There's a 50% chance of a few discrete cells forming ahead of the main line/MCS due to form and move into SW TX from 23Z. Midland looks OK but it if it's a discrete structure you're after then it might be worth holding back around Big Spring/Snyder around 21Z. The advantage of course is that you can see for miles in that area!

In Chickasha - tornado sirens are sounding

I've come South to Woodward hoping to catch any early storms latching onto the OFB I saw developing a few hours ago. There's a likely candidate down near Cheyenne now and I see the hordes moving towards it. To be honest if I loose internet I'll probably be able to follow the masses! There's a storm ongoing here now (northern end of the line) so I'm going to sit here for 10 minutes and monitor. PS: For any virtual chasers back home I am not with NWx team currently but might be later if and when it gets interesting!

That's a decent summary Nick, and we're just looking now at initiation and coverage detail. Here in Pratt, KS the early morning thundery area is now moving over. There is however still much to solve regarding the 'window' that is required from noon to allow recovery. HRRR and RAP maintain ppn and a degree of cloud cover right through the day in the target zones so if this occurs the severe risk is reduced. We also don't have a classic sharp DL - at 22Z it's quite diffuse, except perhaps further south in SW OK. Not an easy one today. SPC correct in going MDT, but it's not a done deal by any stretch.

It was really ironic (being polite) to be sat in a Kansas wheat field, heading back South after a bust this afternoon, watching the streams from chasers on the storms in Nebraska. I could be sat at home with a decent pint doing the same thing, but then I wouldn't get to see all this amazing scenery (and I've seen nearly 4000 miles of it), and I'd miss the stodgy Taco Bells and dodgy burgers. Now in Pratt, KS. I have a feeling SC KS and NC OK could be THE place to be tomorrow if the latest NAM is to be believed. If crud clears in time, this will go MDT risk.

Sat on I35 N of Salina having hacked 300 miles to get here, and the only exciting thing happening is an old couple having a snooze in their car. HRRR and RAP have let me down and I could of saved the fuel and hassle but that's the chase business I suppose. The area in NE CO/SW NE was always going to be too far as I watch tor warned cells develop there. I'm now not sure about tomorrow and where to be placed and the divergence between models in how quickly the early crud can clear and hence how soon the airmass behind it and in front of the DL destabilises will dictate whether it's a high end day or another bust. I'm going to wait half an hour (whatever good that will do) and probably decide to head back the way I came because as of now NC OK looks a decent area. I've also got a plane to California to catch early Sun am from DFW so being in Nebraska on Sat evening probably isn't a good idea.

The primary target today is still W NE, but both 4km NAM and HRRR continue to wobble run to run with the positioning of the WF and hence greatest shear and vorticity. If anything the region has drifted North up to the SD border in the last few frames which for me is a hike too far (maybe not for the road warriors currently camped in Woodward, OK). A combination of RAP, HRRR and a dose of luck may pin a secondary target in north and NE KS that should produce a few supercells from 21Z. There is a pool of enhanced helicity here that could represent the residual OFB and the DL (although still diffuse) does seem to punch into KS along or below the I70. By 21Z HRRR (08Z, 09Z not as good but will check the 10Z before jumping) breaks out one or two cells around Salina, KS in a high SRH environment. It's not warmfront play up in NE but it might produce and will make the trip into OK Saturday more bearable.

I'm beginning to respect the HRRR ppn branch. Pretty much nailed the cells now approaching Lubbock. I will be scrutinising it closely early in the morning, as unless I'm missing something I still think SC KS is the prime play from 3pm. Right, my 20oz ribeye has just arrived do laterz

The shallow troughing at about H600 due to trigger initiation is just entering SE NM now (just seen a small cell pop up near Bennett on the 128). HRRR is still all over it in developing a cluster in the next hour south of Lubbock, but I suspect the upper wind support will not arrive until dusk hence the reason I am now in Amarillo. Good luck guys and on your mega-drive in the morning. This is not discussion for Friday but suffice to say the jury is still out on SC KS or SW NE for tomorrow.

Hi Paul. 15Z HRRR breaks out cells around Big Spring by 21Z, and a lone cell towards Lubbock off the DL. I decided the position for Friday took priority so am currently in Lubbock and booked overnight in Amarillo. I can't decide to go for W OK Friday or the N KS/S NE target (a long drive) - both areas have pros and cons although I'm optimistic that for tomorrow we won't have a slowly clearing MCS issue this time (can't say the same for Saturday - even more tricky). I will do the haul to McCook, NE on Fri am if I think it maximises my chances on the last full day chasing this year. Have a good day whatever you decide to do and maybe I'll see you guys for a steak in The Big Texan later. PS: The motel there is fully booked - I'm in one within stumbling distance.

In Ozona watching a nice lightning display now

On route NW through Brady for San Angelo. Passed through a distinct OFB just now (rolling low cloud/fog) and now in clearer air. Can see the rear cirrus boundary to my West (I am not driving by the way whilst typing - that would be tricky LOL). Just picked up McCrapolds and now moving again. I see HRRR still has cells firing Big Spring to Ozona in next three hours. Hoping to bag some structure at least to rescue the last few days.