nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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No Internet access on the west Texas border unfortunately
It's actually not surprising. Once you get West of the 214 it really is totally open and empty for miles on end.
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I love those timelapses, and a great choice of music: 'We are Here' AKA 'Two Steps From Hell'. Quite appropriate actually.
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Welcome to the party to Tour 4 and good luck in your travels.
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Paul my interpretation of current output suggests an interest exists in E CO Thurs afternoon should the timing of impulses trigger initiation here. The LLJ looks favourable for rotating storm in an upslope regime.
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Because they have massive ********
The more lightbars the more impotent they are maybe ?
There is certainly a correlation between ego and the number of antenna (in theory of course).
I can understand maybe two long antenna (one mifi signal booster and one shortwave radio), but some of the vehicles I saw had over half a dozen of various lengths and floppiness.
I also wonder at the validity of hazard light gantries. One team (Minuteman disaster response) had blue emergency service lights which may or may not be official.
If their primary purpose is to follow a tornado damage path and assist if necessary then I could understand it. Although the vast majority of chasers would stop and assist, I fear not all do and of course very few tornados actually impact populated areas anyway.
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Hope you enjoyed your sabbatical. Some storms in E TX today and a more robust risk in KS Thurs/Fri.
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Colorado is doing it again - incredible!
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is that cell you're on now (22Z) anticyclonic?
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A sort of 'rest day' then - well deserved!
I know you're not in northeast NE, but the return has been impressive there this afternoon with 80/67 in the Norfolk region just west of the loose boundary.
I suspect that there will be some interesting weather in the NE corner of NE n the next few hours. -
Great result again - CO is really delivering this year.
I'm sure I saw both you and Paul Kinghtley on the StormScapeLive stream last night. Is Paul out there?
More active chasing this evening.
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Stream down but these guys are parked behind them now:
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19.49Z
That vehicle in front of you on the dirt track is the StormScapeLive team.
Those cells further south have perhaps more potential with a move into cleaner air? -
Chaser convergence aside the formation of supercells is somewhat conditional and will rely on regions of clearing in the current blanket. Having said that WV indicates one of the troughs swinging in from the mountains should arrive on cue and overriding any clear slots that heat and destabilise will easily promote towers.
Note to self - chase next year late May early June as I'd love to see a classic upslope day.
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Absolutely delighted you got on on the best play yesterday. I couldn't post until much later than I normally do but could see the KS target was too occluded to produce and the CO upslope was the choice and I was relieved to see you head SW at 23z
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Not the best of days forecast-wise yesterday. The parameters were in place for tornadic supercells but for some reason the rotation in the main was only quite broad, shallow and meagre.
No time to analyse but may have a look in more detail to learn.
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Not quite going to plan it has to be said. Primary target slow to fire but should produce before dark.
But watch out central KS - if anything breaks the cap there it could explode.
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Denver-Bennett for me, just because I know where they are :-)
You might know where they are, but are you able to do 95mph to just catch them up (Elk City LOL)
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I like Chugwater because 1 it's close to my adjusted target and 2 I like the name!
Clear defined LP low based super cells in an amazing landscape - what could be better?
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UPSLOPE!
This should go MDT for both hail and tornados IMO. The RAP has some of the best superimposed EHI and SRH values so far this season, with up to 60kns of speed shear already over the region at 21Z.
Somewhere between Sterling CO and Osallala NE would be my primary target for lunch reccy
Update: 9Z models. Maybe further west towards Greeley CO required where initiation likely. The veering profile with height is amazing on the top NE corner of CO later but the LLJ is maximised SW NE.
Recurrent risk next three days in same area.
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Are you guys mobile yet today? The GPS is not showing any movement yet.
Some towers popping now on the ND/SD line and also down in SW SD - the two areas already highlighted.
Visibility looks amazing today (maybe 80 miles plus on flat terrain) so no problem spotting the initiation.
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14Z RAP and HRRR:
I like the WF play but that is way up in ND. I also like the area just east of the lee low/trough pretty much dead centre SD (Murdo, SD) at 22Z where HRRR plops a nice lone sup into a sheared environment. Will it be enough though?
The south/SW SD region would be better for tomorrow as others have mentioned. -
Thanks Nick. The area between Sturgis and Vale, SD again looks favoured this afternoon with the combination of moisture and shear maximised here, especially from 22Z.
Wide open panoramas make for great viewing, but dirt roads likely.
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Did you get their number to use in your defense?
The number of hailstones? Now that would be something
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There's a patch of grass and shrubs just to your right just now and GPS has you in it.
What are you guys doing in the bushes LOL?
Chase Day 39 Discussion - CO,WY,NE
in Storm Chase USA
Posted · Edited by nsrobins
I'm going to start a discussion for a slight risk 5% tor for the above area Tues 16th June.
09Z HRRR confirms earlier RAP in developing one or two decent looking discrete supercells in far NW NE and far E WY at 21Z.
I like the area between Harrison NE and Lusk WY for shear as the LLJ cranks things up later. Could be a residual boundary to look out for.
Edit: GPS puts you in Lamar now. You could get to far NW NE by initiation but it might be breakfast on the go. An alternative would be to chase upslope in SE WY, but IMO tor risk is lower here.
This begins a three day play in roughly the same region.