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Everything posted by nsrobins

  1. I’m sure the lines of Paul and Nick will give you numbers with respect their tours, but climatology (30 years or so mean) dictates the numbers peak at the end of May. The incidence and distribution of course varies year to year, but I’ve gone every year end May/early June since 2009 and always managed to catch at least one tornado (along with loads of hail, lightning, structure etc). I wouldn’t worry too much about location - the teams will get you to where you need to be even if it means crossing three states!
  2. Having missed last weekend’s outbreak, we have another situation this evening if supercells develop in the warm sector above which is a high-end kinematic environment with some long stretched hodographs (up to 90kn W flow at 700mb above N AL at 22Z). Some strong tornadoes possible but conditional on the cells breaking the lid.
  3. That was Minneola - we were queued at the rail crossing heading North when they started up (with the two hundred other chasers lol). It really is an unearthly sound if you’re not used to it. Happened the next day in Solomon KS too. The ‘rules’ vary a bit but these days a siren will be activated if the town lies within the warning polygon, which can be triggered by both radar indicated or spotter report.
  4. Hi Richard. Thoroughly enjoyed that - really well done. I was late on that cell and approached from the N Platte side and didn’t get the sunset structure view. Looking forward to the next episode.
  5. Seasonably strong upper wind profile and corridor of impressive SRH up to 600 (HRRR 00Z) brings a risk of tornadoes to Dixie Alley this evening, some strong ones too with a 15% tor. These early Dixie events can be high-end so this will be on my list to monitor.
  6. It’s American Airlines and I’ve not had any complaints TBH
  7. For info - just got one stops LHR to DFW AA end May through Kayak for £425 Agent is Crystal Travel - used them before with no problems
  8. There are data flow issues and the GFS 18Z run and it’s suite are either incomplete or late this evening
  9. Velocity ‘couplet’ of a major hurricane. Off the scale on the NE eyewall.
  10. That is incorrect. The 2pm local fix had the centre 845miles off the NC coast. It’s not due to make landfall for another two days yet. And reference the people who stay behind - they’re not all hot headed weather freaks. I have friends who care for an elderly couple in Myrtle Beach who will get to the local shelter along with others in a similar position. There is such a thing as choice as well.
  11. NHC hold the ECM tropical product in high regard and it contributes a fair weight to the official NHC track guidance so yes it’s an interesting few days coming up. Of course we’re still very much in the guess range but you get a feeling this is in full ramp preparation mode and could be a big story by early next week.
  12. Historically, and supported by the statistical based models, hurricanes that deepen rapidly tend to bias to the right side of the track envelope which would account for some of the uncertainty. Given the blend of solutions with regards the upper ridge in 5 days forecast to develop near Bermuda, I’d say there’s a better than average chance of a high end hurricane impacting the coast between FL and NC next Weds/Thurs and I’m looking at options to intercept, but will leave it until Monday.
  13. Decent risk in N Dakota tomorrow but I worry about the predominance of HP cells skunking out the potential. On soundings alone I’d look at far N central Dakota - have you got your passports?
  14. Confirmed tornado numbers (CONUS) for May 2018 are 118, compared to the ten yr average of 306 (2001-2011). Not an all time low but not far off it. Five of the above were the brief twin landspouts near Cove, CO. Finding a tornado this season has been a struggle for sure.
  15. Not a bad call if you can hack the drive. I actually think SPC are underdoing the potential in C/E NM tomorrow with a 50kn at 500mb streak and enough moisture (less required in upslope regime) to play with. Expect a category upgrade in next or morning update. Will wait for later CAM runs before considering the trip myself but as we’ll be looking at W TX anyway for Monday it might be worth a shout. 500 miles - no problem!
  16. Loaded gun/CF day today. Positioning in Mullen, NE for 20Z initiation ready to move east. Composites on the southern end of the frontal line rapidly improve towards 23Z in a nose of 70+ dps. Focussing on timelapse of convection if I can get my position right. Tricky today though with sparse road options up in the Sandhills.
  17. We chased the OK Panhandle yesterday and are not in position for the (HRRR) cells in NE KS today. Heading North for central NE cold front risk tomorrow then scouring clears the Plains for a few days.
  18. Structure fest today for us on the long lasting cyclic supercell that moved slowly between Englewood and Waynoka. Some deviant right moves kept us on our toes. Great opportunities for some more 4K time lapse. Here’s a quick structure snap:
  19. I’ll start a thread for today - could be a discrete supercell S KS in decent parameters this afternoon. Have located ourselves in Minneola, KS on W edge of the clear slot and spreads are already 82/66 here. Ready to move.
  20. Hi Paul Stuck to my convictions today and got on the Cope supercell as it was forming. The twin translucent land spout tornados a big highlight (as was escaping the eastward shift of the hail core dodging hundreds of chase commuters ) On to tomorrow.
  21. The NWx team maxed out yesterday in S WY - nice work guys. We couldn’t get onto the twilight Burlington tor so are camped in Colby KS. Today is another witches brew of parameters but I have my eye (on late HRRR data) on the really sharp DL intrusion across the KS line around the Sheridan Lake to Sharon Springs line. Not too interested in SE WY again so hopefully that won’t come back to bite me like it did yesterday.
  22. Goodland, KS. Dps already 65F here which is way above modelled and a really decent SE surface wind. Still think initial sweet spot is far NE CO so we’re shifting to Burlington, CO shortly to re-assess. To avoid confusion we are not part of the NWx team but we’re normally not too far from each other.
  23. Off topic, this is from the SPC for Florida today: ‘supporting a threat for mini supercells ‘ Oh dear - the degenerative ‘mini’ disease is spreading into high places
  24. I’ll kick this one into life as I’m up early to get the 300miles into position. Initiation likely quite early today with virtually no CIN on the upslope shelf of far NE CO around 20Z. A discrete storm surviving until 22Z may take advantage of a decent 850mb flow that develops far SW NE (according to HRRR) so good structure is possible. Tor risk limited by high spreads (low dp - 53F is the best I can find), but you never know. Our conditions update target: St Francis, KS Edit: dps already 55F in target area so maybe HRRR being a little tight on it’s values
  25. At last something decent appearing with respect 500mb flow with 45kn + for NE CO and the NE panhandle tomorrow. We are heading N from our first night base in DFW eating miles to be in range for Sun pm. XM056 Country Highway on max!
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