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nsrobins

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    Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
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    Storms, storm chasing, storm spotting, forecasting, etc

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  1. This location is in far SW TN for 21Z tomorrow from the latest NAM. A classic supercell signature with long-looped hodograph. The HRRR analysis will prove interesting when this comes into range.
  2. Can you reference that as it’s clearly incorrect. ENSO still in La Niña phase (waning) and not forecast to go neutral until March at the earliest. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  3. They weren’t that much lower than -5. After the initial Pm/Am incursion, uppers were generally between -4 and -6. The 11th and 12th had slack winds under a col which produced some very cold nights and very low surface temperatures. This contributed to the brief heavy snowfall on the 13th despite the ‘marginal’ uppers. Reanalysis charts are available here: Reanalysis archives WETTERZENTRALE.DE Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.
  4. I called it a sleeper day as I’ve been pretty much asleep for most of the season so far ? ‘Some’ similarities with the Dodge City day 24th May 2016.
  5. Thurs 21st May Could be a ‘sleeper’ day in SW KS with a very sharp trough/DL forming in the TX panhandle - 65F dps generate >3000 cape in ESE surface flow. I’d be lunching in Dodge City KS.
  6. Talking about this evening - ‘backdoor’ risk ramping up for far SW MO and far SE KS.
  7. Mon 4th May aside some meagre offerings for the next 6 days minimum as a high pressure rules - and GFS has a strong cold plunge Friday scouring out what gulf moisture there is for a further few days. I would be flying tomorrow. Actually quite pleased I’m not to be honest.
  8. 18Z meso returned 4500+ of surface CAPE near and east of OKC. Big loaded gun situation this evening.
  9. SPC have introduced a 10% tor risk for E OK and far W AR this evening in response to revised soundings just to the E of the frontal boundary. Storm Prediction Center Apr 28, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products...
  10. I wouldn't discount a couple monster supercells now in C OK this evening going on recent trends and HRRR in particular ticking the kinematics up a notch or two. With 4000+ of SCAPE available to any parcels that break the strong looking cap these storms will explode. Although shear isn't screaming tornado to me there's always the chance of subtle boundary interaction, a bit of backing of surface flow and bingo. Virtual target Bartlesville, OK for 21Z initiation (potentially)
  11. There could be some monster hailers in C OK down the line if the cap breaks tomorrow evening. I do see a tornado threat up into far NE MS and into IL on the south flank of the low but this is conditional.
  12. Lowish dp and highish kinematics often produce the best visible structure.
  13. Despite being denied my annual fix of Plains panoramas and Applebees, I’m intending to look at risks from afar as they occur and contribute to target forecasting and real-time analysis. No harm in keeping the skills honed. It’s looking reasonably active in the next three weeks with a repeating ridge/trough pattern seeing several surges of gulf moisture into the Plains. Next Mon and Fri look quite potent at the moment (GFS). I was Austrian Airlines out on May 5th. No luck so far with refund but I might look at rebooking using the credit voucher for next year - no harm in forward plann
  14. Yep agreed. Spoke too soon! Got the feel of the 2011 Super-outbreak with that negative tilt and off the scale kinematics.
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