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    Denmead, S Hampshire, UK

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  1. nsrobins

    T4 Flights 2019

    It’s American Airlines and I’ve not had any complaints TBH
  2. nsrobins

    T4 Flights 2019

    For info - just got one stops LHR to DFW AA end May through Kayak for £425 Agent is Crystal Travel - used them before with no problems
  3. There are data flow issues and the GFS 18Z run and it’s suite are either incomplete or late this evening
  4. nsrobins

    Hurricane Michael

    Velocity ‘couplet’ of a major hurricane. Off the scale on the NE eyewall.
  5. nsrobins

    Hurricane Florence

    That is incorrect. The 2pm local fix had the centre 845miles off the NC coast. It’s not due to make landfall for another two days yet. And reference the people who stay behind - they’re not all hot headed weather freaks. I have friends who care for an elderly couple in Myrtle Beach who will get to the local shelter along with others in a similar position. There is such a thing as choice as well.
  6. nsrobins

    Hurricane Florence

    NHC hold the ECM tropical product in high regard and it contributes a fair weight to the official NHC track guidance so yes it’s an interesting few days coming up. Of course we’re still very much in the guess range but you get a feeling this is in full ramp preparation mode and could be a big story by early next week.
  7. nsrobins

    Hurricane Florence

    Historically, and supported by the statistical based models, hurricanes that deepen rapidly tend to bias to the right side of the track envelope which would account for some of the uncertainty. Given the blend of solutions with regards the upper ridge in 5 days forecast to develop near Bermuda, I’d say there’s a better than average chance of a high end hurricane impacting the coast between FL and NC next Weds/Thurs and I’m looking at options to intercept, but will leave it until Monday.
  8. Decent risk in N Dakota tomorrow but I worry about the predominance of HP cells skunking out the potential. On soundings alone I’d look at far N central Dakota - have you got your passports?
  9. nsrobins

    Stormchaser Chicken George Day 7 Wyoming

    Confirmed tornado numbers (CONUS) for May 2018 are 118, compared to the ten yr average of 306 (2001-2011). Not an all time low but not far off it. Five of the above were the brief twin landspouts near Cove, CO. Finding a tornado this season has been a struggle for sure.
  10. nsrobins

    Stormchaser Chicken George Day 5 Travel day

    Not a bad call if you can hack the drive. I actually think SPC are underdoing the potential in C/E NM tomorrow with a 50kn at 500mb streak and enough moisture (less required in upslope regime) to play with. Expect a category upgrade in next or morning update. Will wait for later CAM runs before considering the trip myself but as we’ll be looking at W TX anyway for Monday it might be worth a shout. 500 miles - no problem!
  11. Loaded gun/CF day today. Positioning in Mullen, NE for 20Z initiation ready to move east. Composites on the southern end of the frontal line rapidly improve towards 23Z in a nose of 70+ dps. Focussing on timelapse of convection if I can get my position right. Tricky today though with sparse road options up in the Sandhills.
  12. nsrobins

    Stormchaser Chicke George Day 3

    We chased the OK Panhandle yesterday and are not in position for the (HRRR) cells in NE KS today. Heading North for central NE cold front risk tomorrow then scouring clears the Plains for a few days.
  13. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase Day 21 - S KS/N OK

    Structure fest today for us on the long lasting cyclic supercell that moved slowly between Englewood and Waynoka. Some deviant right moves kept us on our toes. Great opportunities for some more 4K time lapse. Here’s a quick structure snap:
  14. I’ll start a thread for today - could be a discrete supercell S KS in decent parameters this afternoon. Have located ourselves in Minneola, KS on W edge of the clear slot and spreads are already 82/66 here. Ready to move.
  15. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase day 20 - NE CO/NW KS

    Hi Paul Stuck to my convictions today and got on the Cope supercell as it was forming. The twin translucent land spout tornados a big highlight (as was escaping the eastward shift of the hail core dodging hundreds of chase commuters ) On to tomorrow.