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nsrobins

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    Denmead, S Hampshire, UK

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  1. Decent risk in N Dakota tomorrow but I worry about the predominance of HP cells skunking out the potential. On soundings alone I’d look at far N central Dakota - have you got your passports?
  2. nsrobins

    Stormchaser Chicken George Day 7 Wyoming

    Confirmed tornado numbers (CONUS) for May 2018 are 118, compared to the ten yr average of 306 (2001-2011). Not an all time low but not far off it. Five of the above were the brief twin landspouts near Cove, CO. Finding a tornado this season has been a struggle for sure.
  3. nsrobins

    Stormchaser Chicken George Day 5 Travel day

    Not a bad call if you can hack the drive. I actually think SPC are underdoing the potential in C/E NM tomorrow with a 50kn at 500mb streak and enough moisture (less required in upslope regime) to play with. Expect a category upgrade in next or morning update. Will wait for later CAM runs before considering the trip myself but as we’ll be looking at W TX anyway for Monday it might be worth a shout. 500 miles - no problem!
  4. Loaded gun/CF day today. Positioning in Mullen, NE for 20Z initiation ready to move east. Composites on the southern end of the frontal line rapidly improve towards 23Z in a nose of 70+ dps. Focussing on timelapse of convection if I can get my position right. Tricky today though with sparse road options up in the Sandhills.
  5. nsrobins

    Stormchaser Chicke George Day 3

    We chased the OK Panhandle yesterday and are not in position for the (HRRR) cells in NE KS today. Heading North for central NE cold front risk tomorrow then scouring clears the Plains for a few days.
  6. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase Day 21 - S KS/N OK

    Structure fest today for us on the long lasting cyclic supercell that moved slowly between Englewood and Waynoka. Some deviant right moves kept us on our toes. Great opportunities for some more 4K time lapse. Here’s a quick structure snap:
  7. I’ll start a thread for today - could be a discrete supercell S KS in decent parameters this afternoon. Have located ourselves in Minneola, KS on W edge of the clear slot and spreads are already 82/66 here. Ready to move.
  8. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase day 20 - NE CO/NW KS

    Hi Paul Stuck to my convictions today and got on the Cope supercell as it was forming. The twin translucent land spout tornados a big highlight (as was escaping the eastward shift of the hail core dodging hundreds of chase commuters ) On to tomorrow.
  9. The NWx team maxed out yesterday in S WY - nice work guys. We couldn’t get onto the twilight Burlington tor so are camped in Colby KS. Today is another witches brew of parameters but I have my eye (on late HRRR data) on the really sharp DL intrusion across the KS line around the Sheridan Lake to Sharon Springs line. Not too interested in SE WY again so hopefully that won’t come back to bite me like it did yesterday.
  10. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase day 19 - SW NE/NE CO

    Goodland, KS. Dps already 65F here which is way above modelled and a really decent SE surface wind. Still think initial sweet spot is far NE CO so we’re shifting to Burlington, CO shortly to re-assess. To avoid confusion we are not part of the NWx team but we’re normally not too far from each other.
  11. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase day 19 - SW NE/NE CO

    Off topic, this is from the SPC for Florida today: ‘supporting a threat for mini supercells ‘ Oh dear - the degenerative ‘mini’ disease is spreading into high places
  12. I’ll kick this one into life as I’m up early to get the 300miles into position. Initiation likely quite early today with virtually no CIN on the upslope shelf of far NE CO around 20Z. A discrete storm surviving until 22Z may take advantage of a decent 850mb flow that develops far SW NE (according to HRRR) so good structure is possible. Tor risk limited by high spreads (low dp - 53F is the best I can find), but you never know. Our conditions update target: St Francis, KS Edit: dps already 55F in target area so maybe HRRR being a little tight on it’s values
  13. nsrobins

    Storm Chase Day 18 Nebraska bound ?

    At last something decent appearing with respect 500mb flow with 45kn + for NE CO and the NE panhandle tomorrow. We are heading N from our first night base in DFW eating miles to be in range for Sun pm. XM056 Country Highway on max!
  14. nsrobins

    Storm chase Day 12 New Mexico Reports & pictures

    Great work - love the structure.
  15. nsrobins

    Tour 3 - 2018 chase

    Better news for the start of Tour 3. The last four or so runs of GFS have largely dropped the ridge/slack gradient signal for something more conducive to the moisture transport and wind vectors needed for severe convection. Let’s see how it pans out, but I’m sure opportunities will crop up into early June.
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