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  1. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    From latest 4-8dy SPC outlook: ...DISCUSSION... Uncharacteristically weak flow regime, for mid May, is expected to persist this week across most of the CONUS. As a result, severe predictability will necessarily be low during the day4-8 time frame. Sums up the situation rather well. The lack of decent upper wind profiles means you’re relying on marginal moisture return and a moderate diurnal LLJ which makes chasing storms something of a challenge at the moment.
  2. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    There’s a fairly persistant signal now for a ridge to scour the moisture from the plains between 28th May and 1st June. It seems to quickly recover though but this really is in long range territory. We fly on the 25th so maybe a few days action before the calm descends.
  3. I think it’s day 9 - lost track a bit. If the first tour is still active the Denver CVZ might be a play today given a surface low has already started to form according to meso.
  4. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    Looking a bit ‘ridgy’ again from the 23rd but I’m sure there’ll be opportunities. We’ve also got a trip to Wyoming planned if there’s a three day drop-out.
  5. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    We might have a tropical system to deal with across the SE from the 27th May - it’s a fairly persistent signal. How far is Florida from Dallas?
  6. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    The range 12-15 days is waxing and waning with regard severe potential but I guess this is typical. Only yesterday the period 22nd-27th May was looking very good but this morning we have a E GOM low that cuts the moisture feed. The bottom line is it doesn’t matter a jot what the models say until the afternoon I get to DFW - then I really get interested!
  7. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    I remember that Amarillo storm - it was a prolific lightning producer. The longer range for T2 has improved again after taking a swing towards ridging. Some of the charts (GFS) for 23-28th May look very tasty again. I love a late May DL/WF setup with insane CAPE
  8. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase Day 2 - WY.NE/CO

    I think you did pretty well to get on THE storm of the evening without worrying about the quality of the stream.
  9. nsrobins

    Stormchase 2018 - Chase Day 2 - WY.NE/CO

    You might be OK in the Sydney/Bridgeport NE area if RAP is anything to go by. Seems quite keen on up to 60F dps in the low upslope region around 22Z. Sim reflectivity develops what look like elevated storms.
  10. nsrobins

    StormChase 2018 - Chase Day 1 - KS

    Good decision. The IL risk has receded further east, and with a three day risk in KS/NE from today I’d be taking the more relaxed option travel wise.
  11. nsrobins

    StormChase 2018 - Chase Day 1 - KS

    All the best to the intrepid chasers and the tour teams. A rather quiet mid-May pattern looks likely but as we’ve seen so many times a risk can develop out of nothing sometimes and you’re in good hands with Paul - if anyone can get you on a storm he can.
  12. nsrobins

    Tour 2 2018

    Longer range ensembles hinting at an active pattern from 14th May with the end of May climatologically returning the highest risk of tornadoes in the central plains. As May 24th 2016 proved you can get a career day even in a slight to enhanced set up. Get the DL and OFB position right and you can hit the jackpot. I’ll be on tour from May 25th this year so might meet some of you on the chase.
  13. nsrobins

    2018 Stormchasing season all platforms

    Arnett, OK. The 283 corridor maxed out for tor potential this afternoon.
  14. nsrobins

    Tour 3 - 2018 chase

    Boarding after one leg of a multileg trip is definitely not allowed. The check in is only valid at departure of first stage and for ticket purposes multiple legs are considered to be one trip. Its a pain I know.
  15. nsrobins

    ENH risk MO/AR 13/4/18

    Just to clarify I’m not in situ - just playing the virtual game. It’s actually quite a good way to practice for the real thing