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nsrobins

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  1. I called it a sleeper day as I’ve been pretty much asleep for most of the season so far ? ‘Some’ similarities with the Dodge City day 24th May 2016.
  2. Thurs 21st May Could be a ‘sleeper’ day in SW KS with a very sharp trough/DL forming in the TX panhandle - 65F dps generate >3000 cape in ESE surface flow. I’d be lunching in Dodge City KS.
  3. Talking about this evening - ‘backdoor’ risk ramping up for far SW MO and far SE KS.
  4. Mon 4th May aside some meagre offerings for the next 6 days minimum as a high pressure rules - and GFS has a strong cold plunge Friday scouring out what gulf moisture there is for a further few days. I would be flying tomorrow. Actually quite pleased I’m not to be honest.
  5. 18Z meso returned 4500+ of surface CAPE near and east of OKC. Big loaded gun situation this evening.
  6. SPC have introduced a 10% tor risk for E OK and far W AR this evening in response to revised soundings just to the E of the frontal boundary. Storm Prediction Center Apr 28, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products...
  7. I wouldn't discount a couple monster supercells now in C OK this evening going on recent trends and HRRR in particular ticking the kinematics up a notch or two. With 4000+ of SCAPE available to any parcels that break the strong looking cap these storms will explode. Although shear isn't screaming tornado to me there's always the chance of subtle boundary interaction, a bit of backing of surface flow and bingo. Virtual target Bartlesville, OK for 21Z initiation (potentially)
  8. There could be some monster hailers in C OK down the line if the cap breaks tomorrow evening. I do see a tornado threat up into far NE MS and into IL on the south flank of the low but this is conditional.
  9. Lowish dp and highish kinematics often produce the best visible structure.
  10. Despite being denied my annual fix of Plains panoramas and Applebees, I’m intending to look at risks from afar as they occur and contribute to target forecasting and real-time analysis. No harm in keeping the skills honed. It’s looking reasonably active in the next three weeks with a repeating ridge/trough pattern seeing several surges of gulf moisture into the Plains. Next Mon and Fri look quite potent at the moment (GFS). I was Austrian Airlines out on May 5th. No luck so far with refund but I might look at rebooking using the credit voucher for next year - no harm in forward planning ?
  11. Yep agreed. Spoke too soon! Got the feel of the 2011 Super-outbreak with that negative tilt and off the scale kinematics.
  12. After a quiet pattern now for a week or so GFS especially brings a favourable pattern back from 17th Apr with a strong southerly displaced jet and robust moisture return into the southern plains. The period 17th-22nd Apr could be very active.
  13. I guess it was always going to be so Paul. I’m not embarrassed to admit the loss of my annual pilgrimage to the Plains has been quite difficult to accept but we will get through this and be hunting down those supercells again next year.
  14. Thanks to Kirkaldy Weather for creating this thread and keeping the season virtually alive for those of us who have had our trips cancelled. This Saturday 28th March sees some of high=end kinematics for strong tornadoes in Illinois:
  15. Good luck with the trip but I’ve not used advance route planning - as you know chasing is an ‘on spec’ job with route revisions often every 10 minutes. If I had to plan routes based on features rather than the weather it might not work too well!
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