gigabite
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Posts posted by gigabite
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Nobody seems to realize that the primary metric humanity uses to measure the global warming is irradiance. It is a 16th century methodology adapted to the 21st century.
Mankind would be bettered served by a gas filled sphere and a thermometer transmitting the temperature from L1.
The smoothing of the data makes look like surface radiation varies only slightly from season to season, and that skews the greenhouse gas equation to the right.
Irradiance fall in to the category of if the only tool you have is a hammer every problem looks like a nail.
Life exists on this planet simply because of the range of the orbit, the intensity of the sun & the liquid planet core. In an expanding universe the earth's orbit elongates, the sun dims & the core cools.
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The little ice age is a left tailed extreme of a global cooling trend.
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Over the last 30 years negative SOI frequency has trended down. Indicating the El Niño threshold is occurring less often.
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I was referring to the longer term.We had Milankovitch driven cooling from 8,000 years ago until shortly after the industrial revolution, just as would be expected as we head into the next glacial period. Then it all reversed in an incredibly dramatic fashion.
The elongation of the earth's orbit & the diminished solar max as a result of the closest approach of Jupiter ever could have an implication.
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This is a well put together essay about current solar activity and cooling in Europe.
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This is the max now
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Is their a recordable amount of energy from the sun?
I.e. can we say that due to the prolonged solar minimum the earth is receiving approximately x amount less energy than average?
If so, it is surely logical to assume that the earth should get colder, or at least warm less?
I think it is about the size of the Sun. When the Sun is more active it is larger. The techniques used to measure Suns output uses an inference and some offset math, and it is such a large distance that small differences in the constants can cause some hefty anomalies. A mission is planned in the near future that will get some direct measurement. Just to get a spacecraft to survive a trip to Venus requires some engineering, and that is only about 1/4 of the way there. What we need is long term real time data from "L3" (the back side of the Sun.)
There is an inverse relationship between heat and distance.
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A little CME before the alignment.
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Keep the panda, and bring back the woolly mammoth.
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Does anyone remember reading some research saying that when sunspots occurred during the Maunder they tendered to be very large? Or am I making it up?
I haven't the time to investigate at the moment but it might be something to think about considering the current activity.
Here is a wood cut of the telescope that Hevelius and his wife used.
http://en.wikipedia....nn_Hevelius.jpg
This source has some drawings of the early sunspot record.
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1. Solar Cycle vs Jupiter's Perihelion
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Two Sun things that effect winters on Earth other than the Sun angle are Sun size and Sun distance. Jupiter plays a role in both. Normally the Solar cycle starts just before Jupiter's closest approach, Jupiter's closest approach to the Sun is Earth's closest approach to Jupiter.
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I think that solar cycle 23 started early as timed from Jupiter’s perihelion, and ran a relatively normal length of time then shut down. If Solar Cycle 24 starts at the normal interval after perihelion the spot count will start to increase nearer to 2011 with a peak in 2013. Since the Sun Jupiter distance is so much closer than it has been in the last few cycles, I think it might be a little premature to call for a low count cycle following this record minimum based on floating out raw Root Mean Square peak kind-of-look.
That isn’t much to go on. Which is the main problem anyhow isn’t it? The bankers must have come with this let’s go to Mars to see if any thing died there plan instead of more solar research.
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I photoshopped the perihelions of Jupiter on to the sun spot plot.
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Why does everything have to happen in 2012.
Pole Reversal, super storms, end of the world according to the Inca calendar etc etc.....
The 2012 thing may be a miss calculation by the Mayans, actually Jupiter's Perihelion is 2011 March 17 normally the solar max is right after that. Cycle 23 started earlier for what ever reason, but normally the solar max is after perihelion of Jupiter.
There must some limiting factor in the length of the solar cycle, something that limits the duration of the cycle that could be the reason for the long minimum. Then Jupiter will be 400 percent closer to the Sun that a normal perihelion, but Earth will be closer to Jupiter at the same time.
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar
Now if you look at 2012 December 21 you will see an alignment that is indicative of a cme and within the time frame of the new moon one might also expect a large earthquake. It looks like the intercept will miss the earth by a large margin and there will be no traverse pull so there might not be a magnitude 8 or 9 quake.
Nostradamus had the technology to compute all that.
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Spotless Days
In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%):
http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/spotl...3kubtb1nel8rsd4
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It's strange when there's facts like these, which i think corresponds with David Dilley studies, that they continually blame CO2, very strange.
That Image is from the paper and the corresponding image which I clip out because of my personal belief that what it shows is irrelevant to the global warming discussion that is that the co2 is asymptotic and the Ice shelf curve is cyclical. The percentage of co2 in the atmosphere is something like .05 of which a large portion is hard co2 that is pollution that degasses in a spectrometer which eschews the data and the portions cancels. That is not to say that there are not localized heat islands where large segments of the global population live. My point of view is that the current rate of warming is not sustainable to hit a 135,000 year cusp. Temporary cooling intervals do occur and the earth is at the beginning of one now, but from this image it looks like the Labrador Ice shelf shrank some at perihelion this year.
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1. How can a tape measure and drill be effected by cold?
2. It is tough to walk 4 miles a day at -140F.
3. Believe that the Earth is an oblate spheroid and it orbits the Sun.
4. The Sun size and distance from Earth are inherently tied to artic ice thickness.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/AR4_ANALYSIS_SERIES.pdf
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Solar irradiance is such a broad measure it has a tendency to mask trends in the UV and Infrared bandwidths. These bandwidths are very susceptible to small changes in the Earth Sun Distance. Which varies some year over year at perihelion with a pattern near, far, near, far, near, near, far. Which gives it the quasi biennial osculation look.
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1, What month will Ana form? May
2, Name of the first hurricane? 15 June 2009
3, Name of first cat 3 hurricane? Bill
4, Name of first cat 5 hurricane? None
5, How many landfalls the U.S will have? 3
6,How many Major Hurricanes will form? 4
7, Name of strongest hurricane? Erika
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The connection between the solar wind and tropospheric weather is I suggest via its effect on the intensity of UV light that drives temperature in the interaction zone between the stratosphere and the troposphere where there is sufficient ozone to provoke a response. The high pressure cells that constitute the poleward arm of the Hadley cell are such a place. The solar wind blows, the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) is driven equator-wards by electromagnetic forces as the stronger magnetic field lines at lower latitudes produce greater uplift. The ions are vertically well spread some being present in the stratosphere during daylight hours. Its all pretty tenuous up there (troposphere has 75% of the total) and the neutrals are carried along with the particles with unbalanced electrical charges by electromagnetic forces. I think that that is what a cooling equatorial stratosphere in strict conjunction with a warming Arctic stratosphere tells us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmasphere
Interesting hypothesis, I guess it is a hypothesis by the way you are explaining it.
I think it has more to do with the nature of the UV and IR radiation. The intensity of these type of radiation are inversely related to the distance traveled.
Life on earth is due to the ideal orbit of earth. One of the theories of glaciations, I think it was presented by a Milutin Milankovitch describes how large variations in the orbits of Earth was a root cause of them.
http://mdisas.nascom.nasa.gov/temperatures/mdi_temp_opts01.gif
This link is the front lens of the SOHO satellite it shows a 6 degree swing in temperature between aphelion and perihelion.
The Dresden Codex an ancient Mayan ephemeris describes the next perihelion of Jupiter as the end of a cycle. It is to bad I can't refer to a more recent cipher, but the range of the more precise ones is limited to a hundred years or so the Dresden Codex is a three thousand year projection.
The upcoming perihelion is the closest there has been in the recent calculations, and the next one starts a build out.
This brings me to the sling shot effect of this orbit of Jupiter. If you look the next image a plot of the temperature at 180 west 0 north you will see that a cooling period began at the end of 2007.
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/1212/tao19982009ia4.gif
This leads me to think that a cooling phase has started as a result of the expanding orbit of the Earth. That is not to say I think that Earth is on the verge of an Ice Age, just a cooling trend of thirty years or so do to the sling shot effect from this orbit of Jupiter. And it is all due to the limited range of the warming effect of UV and IR radiation.
little ice age ahead
in Climate Change
Posted · Edited by gigabite
ssn = sun spot number
had crut4 = what?
The likely hood of coronal mass ejection is 5 times more frequent during the solar max, so it can be inferred that as the ssn drops the effective size of the sun decreases.