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Everything posted by Liam J
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Ignoring all the ridiculous drivel and moans in here because of the lack of snow being shown in people’s back yards next week… A cold to very cold mid January spell is about to take hold from tomorrow lasting most of next week, many people will see falling snow at some point and a some will even get lying snow. Last month up here the central & southern lakes got 20-30cm of snow, this what not picked up by any models & the Met office issued a late Amber warning once the event was already underway…. Sub -10°c 850 temps pushing well down the country during Sunday & Monday It will feel wintry with widespread frosts which will be severe in places with some low very low minimums, ice days too. Significant windchill at times
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Can’t believe the mood & comments of some in here?! Is that because there’s not feet of snow IMBY being modelled….. There is absolutely no way the models can pick out features & troughs developing in the low heights and unstable airmass from this range! (this gets repeated multiple times) Finally we can look forward to some proper winter weather starting on Sunday and lasting through next week….. severe frosts, ice days & snowfall chances Some absolutely cracking charts for our part of the world!
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Been a mental day of model watching! 18z gone off the scale lol I don’t think the overnight runs can get any better?! Some people need to realise that what’s being shown are low heights, a very unstable & very cold airmass = plenty of troughs/disturbances and snow chances & not all of these are going to show up on modelling at this range…. Let’s hope for a good set of overnight runs! A little over 3 days until the cold sets in
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Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature. The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice…. Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up. A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4993282
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Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature. The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice…. Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up. A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Liam J replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes deffo an upgrade vs previous runs we need a bigger pool of deeper cold over Scandinavia because the North Sea is moderating the air mass as it gets drawn across. Excellent start to the 12z’s…. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Liam J replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Liam J replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 18z off to a good start…. no denying the backing away today from an easterly. It may just be the op runs but they can’t be dismissed. Once the operationals sniff something out we’ve seen ensemble suits flip in the past, hopefully not on this occasion…. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Liam J replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Rollercoaster in full swing lol GFS an improvement vs previous run GEM looks pants vs previous run Looking like we’ll get something much drier with crisp late Autumn days & frosty nights as we approach winter… -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Liam J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some amazing charts if you like cold & snow, a memorable March cold spell incoming with plenty of snow chances! A very wintry chart from the GFS 12z -
model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards
Liam J replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some more interesting weather on the way as Autumn moves up a few gears in the coming days Numerous areas of low pressure look to affect us next week bringing wet & windy conditions. Risk of the first named storm of the season. FullSizeRender.mov Also noticeably cooler than it has been for much of September. A shock on the way FullSizeRender.mov -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well it’s a perfectly plausible pattern to emerge from the current set up and it’s being well advertised across model output. Anything else on top of this cold spell is a bonus! -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Imagine if these day 10 charts are the way forward and this week is just a taster of the next course fascinating model watching. And all this actually happening in winter and not spring this time! -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s a day 10 chart but the possibility of a Scandi high developing seems to be gaining some momentum… Imagine if the main course was still to come Some exceptionality cold air being modelled over Europe. GEM 00z -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last 3 GFS 00z runs for the same day and 3 very different charts. GFS OP especially struggling with mid-long term synoptics atm. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Liam J replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon still keen on keeping the cold going. 06z only goes to 120hr but we’re a long way from anything milder by Wednesday next week. More of a straight easterly over the Atlantic with a shift south of the deep low pressure exiting Newfoundland compared to the 00z. 06z 00z