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Liam J
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Posts posted by Liam J
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Can’t believe the mood & comments of some in here?! Is that because there’s not feet of snow IMBY being modelled….. There is absolutely no way the models can pick out features & troughs developing in the low heights and unstable airmass from this range! (this gets repeated multiple times)
Finally we can look forward to some proper winter weather starting on Sunday and lasting through next week….. severe frosts, ice days & snowfall chances
Some absolutely cracking charts for our part of the world!
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2 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:
That's quite a few getting down to -16 850's on Monday and Tuesday. You would have to think that there would be some disturbances in that flow. Today has been an incredible day of upgrades. Currently a 5/6 day freezing cold spell guaranteed maybe 7/8 days of cold with further upgrades. If we can all get a few inches of snow on the ground this could be quite memorable.
Been a mental day of model watching! 18z gone off the scale lol I don’t think the overnight runs can get any better?! Some people need to realise that what’s being shown are low heights, a very unstable & very cold airmass = plenty of troughs/disturbances and snow chances & not all of these are going to show up on modelling at this range….
2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:Thinking there's a good chance we wake up to a stonking set of 0z runs if the trend of the 18z is continued, clearly everything is very volatile right now given how early the changes were on the 18z runs.
Let’s hope for a good set of overnight runs! A little over 3 days until the cold sets in
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14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Who cares it’s completely wrong.
GFS is not alone and I’m not saying they’re right or wrong but the GEM also wants to bring the Atlantic in with a steep thermal gradient & powerful jet stream out of the USA… Anyway this is a long way off & too far away to be worrying about….
Cold with snow chances most of next week
GEM
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3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Mild sector getting squeezed out on the 6z
Yep. Certainly no downgrades on the 6z ICON as some have mentioned.
850’s 6z vs 00z
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Confused at people saying the block over Greenland doesn’t look strong…. This looks good to me with a clean northerly! Better than the 0z run imo with heights punching well into the polar regions.
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Well…. 6z GFS is nothing short of epic vs previous runs with a great NH profile.
Good to see it jump on board eventually… from zero to hero lol here’s hoping for a fab set of 12z runs later
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12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least. It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January, then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average temperatures for us.
Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature.
The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice….
Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4993282-
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31 minutes ago, Bricriu said:
The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least. It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January, then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average temperatures for us.
2 minutes ago, Liam J said:Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature.
The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice….
Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about
Apologies as I didn’t realise you were talking about the Irish Met service
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12 minutes ago, Bricriu said:The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least. It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January, then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average temperatures for us.
Sorry but this is incorrect…. the forecast to 16th January mentions cold & settled conditions with frosts becoming widespread & severe in time, increased chance of sleet & snow in any unsettled spells later on. Frost, ice & freezing fog all feature.
The next period 17th Jan onwards says an increased chance of colder than average conditions with snow & ice….
Some wintry looking charts from the 6z GFS going into next week. Persistent Hard frosts, cold days on the way with power & heating demand rocketing up.
A lot of water lying around from the very wet weather of late. Be plenty of ice rinks about
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2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
They are a pretty big upgrade on the 0z uppers though, if the rest of the 12z suite follow this then there will be fireworks in here for sure.
Yes deffo an upgrade vs previous runs
we need a bigger pool of deeper cold over Scandinavia because the North Sea is moderating the air mass as it gets drawn across.
Excellent start to the 12z’s….
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Fantastic ICON 12z! Cold & wintry
Only gripe with it is that the 850’s aren’t lower
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GFS 18z off to a good start….
no denying the backing away today from an easterly. It may just be the op runs but they can’t be dismissed. Once the operationals sniff something out we’ve seen ensemble suits flip in the past, hopefully not on this occasion….
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Rollercoaster in full swing lol
GFS an improvement vs previous run
GEM looks pants vs previous run
Looking like we’ll get something much drier with crisp late Autumn days & frosty nights as we approach winter…
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Some amazing charts if you like cold & snow, a memorable March cold spell incoming with plenty of snow chances!
A very wintry chart from the GFS 12z
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Some more interesting weather on the way as Autumn moves up a few gears in the coming days
Also noticeably cooler than it has been for much of September. A shock on the way
Numerous areas of low pressure look to affect us next week bringing wet & windy conditions. Risk of the first named storm of the season.-
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1 minute ago, spayne said:
it’ll all end in tears, ramping up a chart 15 days away, will no one learn..!!!!
Well it’s a perfectly plausible pattern to emerge from the current set up and it’s being well advertised across model output.
Anything else on top of this cold spell is a bonus!-
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GFS 18z…. No words record breaking cold on the way?
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12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Just on this. The GEM was first to really go for the current set up coming and this isn’t it’s first run to suggest the block holding and winning. ECM looks to like it too. One of the great weeks of model watching ahead.....in fact what a great winter for model watching thus far.
I’m surprised it isn’t busier in here
BFTP
Imagine if these day 10 charts are the way forward and this week is just a taster of the next course fascinating model watching.
And all this actually happening in winter and not spring this time!-
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1 hour ago, Malarky said:
If this comes off. Wow. The potential!
Probably been posted a few times already, but here’s the 00z GEM & ECM at day 10
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It’s a day 10 chart but the possibility of a Scandi high developing seems to be gaining some momentum… Imagine if the main course was still to come Some exceptionality cold air being modelled over Europe.
GEM 00z
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39 minutes ago, pyrotech said:
Especially trying to compare Apples v Pears
Trends show comparing 0z v 0z or 06z v 06z
Last 3 GFS 00z runs for the same day and 3 very different charts.
GFS OP especially struggling with mid-long term synoptics atm.
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No point looking for trends from the GFS atm especially the OP.
00z
06z
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Icon still keen on keeping the cold going.
06z only goes to 120hr but we’re a long way from anything milder by Wednesday next week.
More of a straight easterly over the Atlantic with a shift south of the deep low pressure exiting Newfoundland compared to the 00z.06z
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Ignoring all the ridiculous drivel and moans in here because of the lack of snow being shown in people’s back yards next week…
A cold to very cold mid January spell is about to take hold from tomorrow lasting most of next week, many people will see falling snow at some point and a some will even get lying snow.
Last month up here the central & southern lakes got 20-30cm of snow, this what not picked up by any models & the Met office issued a late Amber warning once the event was already underway….
Sub -10°c 850 temps pushing well down the country during Sunday & Monday
It will feel wintry with widespread frosts which will be severe in places with some low very low minimums, ice days too. Significant windchill at times