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Everything posted by DisruptiveGust

  1. Looking at the overnight OP runs the GFS is the odd one out comparing it to ECM, UKMO and also GEM. Potenially some very unseasonably cold weather for May from the north towards next weekend, with high pressure over the N Atlantic and Greenland. These charts wouldn’t look out of place in winter! There’s still some very cold air to our north, if this happens then expect some damaging frosts and very low daytime maximums and possibly some May snow! UKMO, ECM & GEM @ 144hrs Enjoy the sun and warmth this week, I’ll get the garden finished.
  2. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a wind warning issued for tomorrow as a very deep area of low pressure currently over the Atlantic sweeps across the UK. Although this system will be filling over us there still remains a tight pressure gradient and powerful wind field, some slight model disagreement with the exact track and max wind gusts. Very windy day for many tomorrow.
  3. Another very unsettled run from the ECM this evening. Worrying times ahead for the flood hit areas with more rain to add to the water levels, along with gales or severe gales. The very intense Polar Vortex is breaking records atm. The jet stream remains in overdrive!
  4. Very windy now in Carlisle as the last swathe of gales from Dennis is now moving in and battering northern and western Britain, 50-60mph gusts quite widely and 60-70mph gusts recorded around some Irish Sea coasts. A stormy night ahead. Nice sunset a short while ago.
  5. A wild day in Cumbria thanks to Ciara! Severe gales and flooding.
  6. Following on from the EC 12z ramping up the winds, the 18z ICON is rolling and this model has also upped the wind speeds. Widespread 60-70mph gusts possibly 80-90mph for exposed locations coasts and hills, especially N Wales, NW England and S Scotland on this run. Ciara is now engaging a very powerful jet stream and there still remains a level of uncertainty over the dynamics. At the moment it’s looking like Ciara may turn out to be more intense with higher impacts than currently modelled (until this evenings outputs) as this large system undergoes rapid intensification. Worth noting is the strength of wind tomorrow evening for parts of Wales, N England, Ireland and Scotland, quickly becoming very windy across the UK during Saturday night.
  7. Heads up from the Met Office. Wet and very windy weather to arrive this weekend WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK This weekend low pressure returns once again, heralding a spell of wet and very windy weather that looks likely to last well into next week.
  8. Some eyebrow raising charts being churned out atm. Next weekend and into next week could be very intense with numerous severe weather hazards. Stormy pretty much nationwide, snow & blizzards for some, severe windchill, wind damage...
  9. Here we go again! This powerful polar vortex just isn’t letting up this winter. The UK will be coming under the influence of a very large and intense area of low pressure next week as the jet stream gets pushed south by very cold polar air. Stormy conditions making a return.
  10. I think today’s deepening wave should’ve been named, 50-60mph gusts recorded at some inland locations, 70mph+ around some coasts. The UKMET seem reluctant to name any storms, usually Met Éireann and it’s only because this system went over England and Wales they didn’t name it.
  11. Brendan is now undergoing extreme cyclogenisis racing across the Atlantic to become a large cyclone. ? Pleasant evening ahead of tomorrow’s weather! Nice sunset.
  12. Some violent wind speeds over the Atlantic as Monday’s system undergoes extreme cyclogenisis and develops into a significant windstorm. Very high seas.
  13. Before we get to the beginning of next week some very wet & windy weather today for the north and west with gales or severe gales. The centre of the intense cyclone which develops into Monday over the Atlantic is very close to our shores with the powerful wind field. Severe gales likely as the associated cold front and very unstable air moves across us from the west, further stormy weather likely following this but the exact details need firmed up on as this volatile pattern unfolds.
  14. Looks like an interesting week coming up if you like some very active & stormy weather. A very large and intense cyclone developing in the Atlantic as a wave exiting the States roughly around 1000mb undergoes extreme cyclogenisis, becoming sub 940mb in less than 24 hours. Smaller scale lows coming into the flow with the powerful jet stream will deepen rapidly, some wild weather ahead.
  15. Heading into a very disturbed and volatile pattern from the weekend and into week as the main and intense upper trough moves closer with a racing jet stream. Some potentially very windy and disruptive weather on the way as lows rapidly deepen as they encounter the main trough and the powerful jet stream.
  16. Wet snow falling in Carlisle atm, 1 degree above freezing. IMG_3355.MOV
  17. This is a very intense Polar Vortex we’re seeing atm! The PV visiting the UK with some very disturbed times ahead, certainly the risk of some severe windstorms.
  18. 82739CB1-F7CF-40FC-B203-8D744F2C3BB5.MP4 F24EBAB9-395F-4BA3-812E-0DB3A1EBC528.MOV
  19. The UKMet issued a yellow warning about the same time that the disruption started! So no real advanced warnings hence the state of the roads with no highways grit or snow ploughs out and about at all. Got a call from my mum who lives at High Harrington right on the coast, she said she’d just looked out after hearing cars struggling & there’s about 2” of snow, snowing heavily and blowing a gale! In Carlisle it was still wet and sleety but less than an hour later it was 0c and there was a good 3” of snow in places and it was coming down fast, from wet to without in an hour! Major problems on the roads.
  20. Well what a journey along the A595 between Carlisle and Cockermouth last night!! This was already causing major problems before the yellow warning was issued!! These scenes were below 100m! Poor forecast & warnings for this yesterday, Cumbria Council and Highways were not prepared with no gritters/snow ploughs out. Many cars were stranded, thank goodness for winter tyres! 7A77B012-9F27-464B-B290-56CFA9BEC4C0.MOV E5CC8002-DA27-42AF-885F-A43764B895AA.MOV 0594D218-3EEF-4AF8-B096-E5AAE25DDD1F.MOV
  21. Ok so my mums just sent me this, right on the coast at High Harrington Cumbria!! Blizzard! 832DE464-133F-4B45-9B0D-26A3F270EC39.MP4
  22. Possibly something similar next week?! ? Hopefully plenty of snow chances from the sliders, cold & unstable air with low pressure around
  23. No beast from the east with minus 20 850’s and 6ft of snow on the ECM, but it’s looking cold & there are plenty of snow chances, feeling like winter! Could be far worse... Saw some snow falling yesterday and it’s currently minus 4c here, looking at 1c as the high today, cold ? up north...
  24. Well what a thoroughly boring period of weather! Cloudy day and night no frost no sun. Got to be one of the most boring starts to winter! At least give us some storms, something to break the bore fest.... all the arctic weather seems to be affecting countries that have 30+ degree summers lol couldn’t make it up
  25. Just shows they’ve given up. The UKMET could’ve named Deirdre given the amount of yellow + amber warnings issued and the impacts over wide areas of the country.
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