Penrith Snow

So any breakdown on the 06z GFS is 10 days away, that will do for me as its well into FI. Forget the potential snowstorm at day 9, lots of opportunities well before that. Andy

Fantastic update from MetO MRF, they clearly don’t expect any significant breakdown in the very cold weather till after mid month. I feel more confident now in ignoring rogue model runs like yesterday’s ECM and the 06z GFS Andy

My thoughts exactly. Normally higher SSTs would be a real cause for concern but get the air cold enough and the warm sea will trigger copious instability. Prime example was late November 2010, north sea temperatures were still at their autumn high and somewhat above average but the intense cold just prevented the low level air rising above freezing and produced massive amounts of instability and snow. NE England became like Buffalo under Lake Effect snow and Depths reached 40cms in parts of Northumberland. Although nice who wants a bone dry northerly? Andy

I agree with you Matt, however, like you I have been on these forums since the early days of TWO 20 years ago and it was always thus. It's part of what makes our hobby (or in winter curse) fun, I wouldn't want a forum devoid of emotion, this is where we share our mutual interest and without emotion we just become robots. In pre TWO days there was a flatform called Science Weather or something like that and man was it boring to read. Andy

With uppers of -8c your going to have a small pecker afterwards!

Please God let the 18z be right, I will put up with a January and February full of Bartletts if I can have a snowy December.

The EC was like England getting to the final of the Euros then being beaten on penalties!

Did the BFTE in 2018 not reach -10c over Northern England? I could be wrong Andy

What I like about the latest runs are that they are slowly upgrading the cold spell, normally it’s the other way round! Not drawing comparisons but there was nothing exceptional in the models in mid November 2010 but they upgraded over time so by the time the cold spell hit it exceeded expectations. Andy

Wow, stunning ECM, I love the Northern England Blizzard at +240, haven't seen a chart like that since 1979. In Cumbria for example 850 temperatures stays below -7c from next Wednesday morning to the end of the run, ain't nothing marginal about those uppers. GFS is better for the south but really at this range it's just variation on a theme, it's going to get damn cold if those runs verify. And that's my only concern, that the cold is still 5 days away and with shortwave now in the mix this could still go wrong. I have been in Southern Spain since early September and like the uk it's been exceptionally warm, landing at Manchester airport next Wednesday afternoon is going to be a shock! Andy

Yes but surely that is better than a bone dry northerly with snow reserved for Eastern coasts? The low shown on the ECM post 168 has developed in frigid Arctic airflow with low uppers and no warm sectors Bags of potential. Andy

I just checked, the 850 temperature during this very snowy spell across Northern England was -5c. I think to expect -10c uppers in early December is unrealistic Andy

The ECM 216 and 240 are very similar to the pre Christmas cold spell in 2009, in Cumbria this was a great spell with 15cms lying in Penrith. Not sure how the uppers compare but doubt they were much below the -7c uppers showing on this mornings ECM. Andy

It's almost 10 years exactly since the famous 'That ECM' run in December 2012, is the model going to repeat its own history? Like others I am too worried by the ongoing poor GFS runs to buy a sledge on the back of a fantastic ECM. Andy

TBH all the snowy charts have been deep in FI so to me the establishment of HLB is the important thing. Once we have that then a cold spell can spring up at short notice. Better have the wobbles in FI than when we get to +72 like last Christmas! At least it’s a seasonal start to winter. Andy

I actually like the ECM 240 it’s got bags of potential with well below average uppers and low pressure. It’s the type of scenario that pops up random snowfalls even on low ground. Far better IMO than the cloudy dull drizzly easterly from GFS at the same time. Andy

Any easterly was always going to be mediocre in the short term, no chart ever showed a wintry spell before the 7th December. If we do get a proper cold spell it will be around mid December following the halting of the Atlantic and a lengthy spell of high pressure and slack cool easterly winds, both GFS and ECM have toyed with this idea and I think its still on the table. Andy

After 12 months of mild crud either would be a dream!

Notice the much lower heights (greens) in 1962 compared to this morning +240 ECM (Europe covered in yellow) Any snowfall from that ECM chart would be very limited, we need lower heights to instil much greater instability to get proper snow from an easterly The current high SSTs won’t help either. Plenty of time for upgrades Andy

Who could forget 'That ECM' almost 10 years ago in December 2012. It was a 12h run and it was snow armageddon, alas it was gone 12 hours later replaced by a slack chilly high pressure. The reason I bring this up is tonight's ECM is so different to GFS at 240 that I refuse to be drawn in just yet. We will see. Andy

My God, at 240 the ECM has a northern Scandinavian High of 1070mb that's exerts its influence across the whole of Europe. OK it's not the coldest of easterlies but below average 850's are incoming and the whole Airmass would get colder with time. Is the MetO MRF about to be vindicated? Andy

I am also suspect of teleconnections because if you look hard enough you will find patterns and effects in anything. My Cat often goes moody when the MJO is in phrase 6-7, but that doesn't prove cause and effect! Anyway, back to the models and height rises to the south seem likely as we head towards December, periods of intense zonality often end which high pressure building across Iberia. Look on the bright side at least the US is having a great start to winter with record snow in NY state. The wheels on the bus go round and round. Andy

Ecm and Gfs hint at rising pressure after day 10 but rising from the south not the north. I fear any rise in pressure will just put us back to where we were last week with high pressure over the near continent and warm southerlies across the UK. Andy

2013 snowier than 2018? I am surprised, 2013 was a bust in East Cumbria with the frequent easterlies delivering little lying snow. 2018 delivered several snowfalls in January and February even before the ‘Beast’ arrived which then brought the best blizzard conditions I have ever seen. Just shows how localised a snowy winter can be. Andy

Thanks for that, so a mid range station really. Will be interesting to see how the temperature shield copes with the strong Spanish sun. I have my doubts. Andy