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Penrith Snow

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Everything posted by Penrith Snow

  1. Absolutely, during the early December cold spell Cumbria was forecast to be completely dry for the duration, in the end the Lake District got 30cms - 40cms with 5cms - 10cms further east in the County. Get the cold in first, then... Andy
  2. It's an odd fact that at the height of the last glaciation the main Scandinavian Ice Sheet covered Britain right down to a line from the Bristol Channel to Thames Estury, (now the M4 corridor) the southern half of England below this line remained free of ice and was tundra instead. Coincidence I know but interesting nevertheless Andy
  3. For those of us old enough to remember it is striking the similarities between today's model runs and the first week in December 1981. Then as now a large uk high migrated towards Greenland with very cold Northerly winds pushed southwards, in 1981 a slider low running SE along the base of the cold front brought heavy snow to Central and Southern England on the 8th with London paralysed during the morning rush hour. The previous day had been relatively mild but the low quickly pulled in the very cold air mass and rain rapidly turned to snow during the early hours. The Greenland High weaked slowly over the next two weeks but the UK remained to the north of the Jet and it remained cold and snowy until the New Year December 1981 is now overshadowed by 2010 but in many ways it was more snowy. Remarkable synoptics today not seen for many years. Andy
  4. If Netweather existed 20,000 years ago some members would be complaining about how thin the glaciers were south of the M4 corridor compared to up north!
  5. The models seem to tilt the flow from straight Northerly to North Westerly in FI while maintaining the depth of cold. This is good news for most of us as a straight Northerly is usually dry unless you live near the beach in Scarborough, North Westerlies push precipitation much further inland. The whole evolution is similar to the pre Christmas cold spell in December 2009. Andy
  6. "Houston we have a problem" You don't have to be a depressed pessimist to see things are trending the wrong way, the ENS are underwhelming and the ECM op a shadow of what was promised a few days ago. Polish it as much as you want but you won't make the models shine, yes still plenty of time for upgrades as the cold spell is still a week away but we need to see the trend reverse soon. If it is to go TU then I would rather it be now than at +72 which has happened in the past. People look at upstream developments in the Pacific but for me it's Iberian Heights that's the issue, the drought in Spain is now serious and unprecedented with little sign of a change anytime soon. Andy
  7. We're they really counting down well? All the great charts we're well in to FI, I never saw any good charts within +168 which really is the limit of model prediction in non zonal set ups. We call it FI for a reason, it's all a fantasy until +144 and that's pushing it. I am still concerned about Iberian Heights and the endless expansion of the sub tropical Hadley Cell, for the UK its a cold killer. Andy
  8. It was Ian McCaskill presenting it not John, it’s on You Tube. His classic line is “the only thing bright about this forecast is my tie” Classic McCaskill Andy
  9. Upgrade indeed, yesterday the 528dam line was across NE Scotland, today it covers most of the UK. Max of only 3c here on Saturday according to Met Office app sounds about right, big drop from the recent 10c highs. Great morning guys Andy
  10. No, the Kettley failed Easterly was in early February 2001. Epic disaster that was in the early days of internet weather watching. it’s been downhill since.... Andy
  11. It's good practice to compare the countdown to previous cold spells with this potential one as others have done with 2010. For me this feels more like 2018 as that cold spell was preceeded by a lengthy UK high which then moved northwards allowing very cold easterlies to spread West. So did it countdown straight forward from FI? Absolutely not! Despite confident MetO MRFs the models wobbled many times and it was only at +120 were we sure the cold spell was nailed, at 10 days out the models were flipping more times than a McDonald's Burger. For now the trend for an intense Greenland High at day 10 is clear, that's as much as we can expect. Andy
  12. It's the same reason Ambleside gets so much rain, it's surrounded on all sides by mountains which enhance any precipitation including snow, Ambleside isn't high but often heavy rain will turn to snow in winter purely down to evaporation cooling. Many times Penrith gets light sleet while Ambleside receives heavy snow despite Penrith being higher elevation. It has driven me mad for years! With regard to the December 2023 event that resulted from a stationary line of showers across the southern Lakes from the Irish Sea, this is also a frequent occurrence but am at a loss as to why this is. North and East Cumbria do much better for snow in easterly set ups, in January 1963 snow lay on the ground for only 3 days in Ambleside compared to 29 days in Penrith. Andy
  13. It was New Years day 1979, bitter but mostly dry easterly winds across Cumbria on New Years Eve became a slack westerly on New Years Day as a minor through developed over Ireland, the air was still very cold and snow showers formed over the Irish Sea during the morning and pushed inland during the afternoon merging to give hours of heavy snow. The whole of NW England was affected from Carlisle to Manchester, in Penrith 17cms fell with 25cms at Shap, as usual in such set ups the Southern Lakes saw the heaviest snow with 40cms in the Ambleside and Coniston area. Manchester was brought to a standstill by a 16cms fall and both Manchester and Liverpool airports were closed. A friend of mine spent the night in her car on the M6 near Charnock Richard the motorway being completely blocked for hours. 1978/79 is the true benchmark winter. Andy
  14. A SSW could have screwed up a favourable trop set up, remember the SSW on 1st January 2019, it was followed by forecasts of 0f (-18c) temperatures in February, we got 18c alright but it was plus 18c not minus!
  15. This early winter reminds me very much of winter 1997/98. That was an El Niño winter with a cool November followed by a wintry start to December with frost and snow. However, mild weather dominated from 4th December and continued throughout the winter apart from some cold zonality in early January. Sounds familiar? Andy
  16. British winters 21st Century: 7 weeks of zonality wind and rain, 5 weeks of Bartlett anticyclonic gloom and one week of frost and snow to remind you of what could have been
  17. Better charts this morning but yesterday's were so bad you literally couldn't get any worse. Let's hope it's a new trend, we need to collapse those Iberian Heights Andy
  18. This is Andy, last surviving member of the Netweather Winter 24 signing off.......
  19. December 2012 'That ECM Run' Have never forgiven ECM for that debacle, it is however still the most accurate model. Andy
  20. I would place it on the fence post. To keep it dry I would buy a cheap Bird Box and drill loads of holes in it which will allow easy circulation of air while keeping the sensor dry. Putting tbe sensor in a plastic bag is a no no as it will always read too high at night. Andy
  21. Another shocking August day, max 16c, cold wind and frequent showers, only redeeming feature was it wasn't as bad as yesterday's 13c and heavy rain. Britain, the land of Brexit, Bartletts and Bad summers
  22. I remember 1978 as a great year, after a cool spring summer was a washout with some remarkably low temperatures in the first half of July, autumn was warmer than average but it was too late for real heat then. Indeed the highest temperature I recorded in South Birmingham that year was 25c and that was just one day. Above average temperatures continued into November but on the 22nd the weather switched to a cold northerly heralding one of the great snowy winters of the 20th Century. Proper UK weather. Andy
  23. I find most weather station thermometers read too high in very sunny conditions as they don't have Stephenson screen type sunlight protection ie: double vents. It's not ideal but I find putting the thermometer in the shade near (but not on) a North facing fence or wall gives better readings particularly in summer. In winter however this can give a lower max on a sunny day but its a reasonable trade off. Andy
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