Penrith Snow
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Posts posted by Penrith Snow
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Disappointing ECM this morning as after the northerly blast next week the Atlantic High fails to move over the UK but stays to the west of Ireland instead.
This would bring cool, cloudy conditions to much of the UK throughout next week.
GFS has more of a high pressure influence but its flabby and retrogresses in FI to give another spell of northerly winds.
After the nice day yesterday you might want to put the BBQ back in the shed for a couple of weeks.
Andy
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Poor GFS this morning with no sign of high pressureeven into FI, the flow becomes more westerly zonal with depressions on a more northerly track which should allow drier weather into the SE.
However, areas further north and west are relentlessly wet with northern England and Scotland receiving 100mm of rain by day 10.
High pressure is over France in FI but just not close enough and certainly not the proper spell of high pressure we are looking for.
Couldn't really be any worse, indeed, I don't like the look of GFS FI because as mid Month approaches much of Europe is enjoying a early heatwave while the UK and Scandinavia remain under an Atlantic influence, we have seen this scenario play out many times in recent years.
Andy
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CoventryWeather Oh God not the dreaded 10 day ECM chart, have been following that since Christmas and it leads to nothing but disappointment.
GFS at day 10 isnt that great either unless you live in a loft conversion in London.
long way to go yet.
Andy
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damianslaw That's why I didn't expect much from Winter 2023/24 and I always thought forecasts of a cold February were very unlikely given historical comparisons.
Things will change eventually but I worry that increased SSTs to our south west could trap us into a new Blade Runner film type climate.
Let's hope not
Andy
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KTtom Correct and it's the worse possible set up, worse than proper zonality which at least gives the occasional sunny day and frosty night between depressions.
But a semi permanent low out west just gives relentless south westerlies, mild in winter, cooler relative to average in summer but wet and persistently dull with little sunshine all year.
It's like the climate depicted in the film Blade Runner and maybe the weather that reflects modern Britain.
Andy
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damianslaw And when you look at the current synoptics with a southerly flow over the SW you wouldn't forecast snow in January never mind late March.
With the SSTs it's remarkable really.
Andy
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If you thought the weather couldn't get any worse then look at this mornings GFS, after a brief lull on Easter Monday the though out rest moves back over the UK as a new area of low pressure heads towards England and Wales, this sits around for days before another even more intense low arrives in FI.
Meantime pressure builds stronyly to the North so the jet stream has nowhere to go except Western Europe.
Meanwhile The Azores Ridge extends into Iberia so after some welcome rain the drought returns to Spain, which is something they don't need.
When I watched last night as rain turned to heavy snow across South West England and Wales on a South Westerly airflow in late March I thought this is it, its the End of Days
Andy
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Although this was a rubbish winter it wasn't as bad as some recent ones in East Cumbria, we managed 3 snowfalls of 3cms or more, 7 days with lying snow and 3 ice days. Winters 2007, 2008, 2014, 2016 and 2017 were worse.
Rainfall was above average but not excessive, it was however very dull with little sunshine which added to the gloom.
Andy
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ANYWEATHER Hmmm, I suspect the collapse of the Iberian ridge is temporary, pressure will be building over the Med soon anyway as the sun moves northwards and I suspect the ridge will be slow to recede come Autumn, I would not be surprised to see a Iberian High dominated winter in 2025
Andy
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Cheshire Freeze Wow, look at all that rain in Iberia, the semi permanent Iberian ridge has finally collapsed.
Good for the severe drought in Spain and Portugal but the excessive rain in the UK is the last thing we need.
Note the lack of precipitation over the Pole, clear signal for extensive Northern blocking.
Andy
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Models have trended even worse overnight, firstly the Fax Charts have Thursday low centred over Western Scotland compared to Western Ireland yesterday so this has the effect of the low stalling and filling over the UK during Easter instead of out West which would have given us a more southerly flow.
So Easter is almost certainly going to be cool and very showery with limited sunshine.
After Easter all models now build pressure strongly to the NW so after waiting since Christmas we finally get the Northern Blocking we have been looking for but of course its 8 weeks late. At least the northerly winds shown again on GFS would be drier and brighter but temperatures would be well below normal.
Which ever way you look at it Spring is further away than ever, the repeated SSWs have finally had an effect but not the one we wanted.
Andy
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Owning a Washing Line in Cumbria is like owning a Sledge in Cornwall!
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If youhave woken up in a bad mood don't look at this mornings GFS! Yesterday's signal for a drier spell in April has vanished, instead we have a strong ridge across Iberia and the UK under a strong zonal flow.
ECM brings misery in a different form with a channel low, northern blocking and -10c uppers into Scotland by day 10.
The unsettled Easter is all but nailed on with any warmer spell in the SE receding as the low pressure is now likely to be further east than modelled by ECM a few days ago.
My advice is stay at home Easter, put the central heating on and do some decorating
Andy
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GFS has a much improved FI this morning with a strong April UK High but it doesn't save Easter which is still signalled to be wet, windy and mild.
ECM slightly better with the low further west and the UK under a more southerly influence so not as wet and relatively warm especially in the SE.
London and the SE are still in with a chance of a reasonable Easter but the rest of the UK looks poor and I pity anyone who has paid top dollar for a hotel in Cornwall over Easter.
Andy
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ANYWEATHER I think it much more likely that I will be able to Ski in Scotland than sun bath on the south coast over Easter but I suppose you never know
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ECM shows potential for a warm dry Good Friday in the South East ahead of low pressure which crosses the UK during the Easter weekend, all models now agree on the Easter weekend only temperature levels are up for grabs.
The bleak Easter to come is a kick in the teeth to a depressed Britain forced to endure months of miserable weather and economic gloom.
Article in today's Telegraph compares 2024 to 1979. I beg to differ, 1979 brought a fantastic winter, not everyone liked it but I loved it
Andy
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Chesil View At this rate any cold leaving the Russian Arctic next week will arrive just in time for Christmas!
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3cms of snow lying in Penrith this evening, snow line was much lower than forecast about 100 meters. Nice to see but it won't last long.
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The snow level on Friday is being lowered as the time approaches, anywhere above 400 feet in Northern England is in with a chance now. The Lake District being the sweat spot.
Further out a cold easterly is looking more likely but at the moment cold rain and sleet more likely than snow. This however could be upgraded.
Little sign of spring.
Andy
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I never expected anything from this winter due to the strong El Nino, I am more hopeful of winter 2024/25 with a moderate La Nina.
What I won't be doing is chasing the MJO and other Snake Oil solutions.
If we stick to synoptic meteorology up to 168 hours our lives will be far less stressful.
Andy
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Some big snowfalls for Scotland then the Alps coming up with lots of cold rain for the rest of us.
Thank God this awful grey warmth is coming to an end, who wants a black spring in February
Andy
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The annoying thing is that we may see charts in early March that would of produced snow in early February but will just be cold rain as 850's won't be cold enough. High SSTs for the time of year won't help either.
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CryoraptorA303 Good a analysis.
Pattern matching isn't perfect at all but IMO it's more useful than the mumbo jumbo of the MJO etc, and yes I have read the papers.
Put it this way, pattern matching clearly pointed to a very mild February, I said as much in late January but the new so called signals pointed to extensive northern blocking and a cold month, even the MetO were taken in.
It was never going to happen! December and January were very similar to other strong El Nino winters so the outcome for February was inevitable, add to that the fact that mild December's and January's are nearly always followed by a mild February, 1983 is a rare exception.
The fact that other 'signals' got it so badly wrong goes to prove how unreliable they are as a forecasting tool, yet we still hear evangelist going on about MJO phases, AAM and the dreaded mountain torque, give it a rest guys or at least explain why it went so wrong while good old fashion pattern matching had February spot on.
I respect people who research new areas in meteorology but some humility would be welcome.
Andy
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If you don't like wet weather don't look at this mornings GFS, it relentlessly wet up north and these conditions spread south next week to give a soaking FI everywhere with slow moving low pressure systems.
ECM is similar with both models bringing in a cool North westerly next week so we may get snow on high ground in Scotland and a slight frost further south.
It's terrible output to finish off a terrible winter with not even a sign of an early spring to make up for it, it's no stop cloud and rain.
I remember the mild winters of the mid 70's but they were nothing compared to this years car crash, even in 1974/75 which was a very mild winter for its time the weather was often bright and dry with few gales, January 1975 brought widespread snow on the 24th and February was mild but benign. Then March brought some great weather with frequent very cold easterly and northerly winds, widespread frost and heavy snowfalls which continued well into April, May was unusually cold, frosty but sunny, while June brought freak snow on the 2nd then a 3 week heatwave.
The weather in other words was 'interesting', I find nothing interesting about mild, sunless southwesterlies that persist for weeks on end, maybe that's just me
Andy
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
You can't polish a turd and you can't say this mornings ECM is anything other than miserable. After the next few days of cool, showery weather low pressure takes over to renew the monsoon conditions of March with Southern districts in particular exposed to low pressure to the south west. Meanwhile a large high develops over mainland Europe bringing most of the continent a early heatwave. Let's hope this isn't the pattern for summer.