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Penrith Snow

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Everything posted by Penrith Snow

  1. ECM brings us our first Bartlett of the season next week, let's get awful charts like that out the way before winter arrives. The ECM at +240 looks like so many bad winter nightmares. Andy
  2. Not a great winter but I can think of many worse including the last one! December 1998 brought several light snowfalls with more in February, not great but I recorded snow lying on 7 mornings max depth 6cms. Better than the one morning of slush last winter! Andy
  3. No not a mild ramper he loved delivering a snowy forecast, I remember his forecast in early January 1985 and under a very cold North easterly flow a warm front was approaching from the north west, pointing to the pressure chart his comment was "don't be fooled by that warm front, the air behind it is about as warm as a polar bears packed lunch" classic. He was right and that warm front brought 10cms of snow to London although places further west had sleet. Andy
  4. Hi, could someone please post a link to the excellent Wetterzentrale model output site as mine no longer works. Cheers, Andy
  5. The Glossea cold winter of 2018/19 was soooo disappointing, the MetO long range model rarely predicts cold conditions but right from mid November to mid January the MetO outlook was for colder wintry conditions. With memories of the 2018 beast from the east still fresh all we had to do was wait. In the end we were rewarded with record winter warmth in February and an even worse winter in 2020. Now Glossea is predicting a mild zonal winter you can bet it will be 100% accurate 😥
  6. ECM looking good at 240, what could possibly go wrong. TBH guys the outlook is pretty grim for 90% of the UK for the next 10 days, let's not try to polish a turd. Andy
  7. With such cold air, light winds and dry ground surface we could be looking at some very low overnight minimum, I think -5c is possible here (had -1c yesterday), even lower in parts of Scotland. One to watch. Andy
  8. Yes, but how typical would it be for them to actually verify! Andy
  9. Lol, the ECM at 192 pushes the -5c uppers past the south coast while -10c uppers reach northern Scotland, Christ we didn't manage that all winter!, Andy
  10. Isn't this the day that the UK wind speed record was set on Cairngorme Mountain summit? Or maybe that was 1986?
  11. With some cold and potentially wintry weather next week I thought I would look back to an unexpected snowstorm that struck Birmingham 45 years ago on the 27th March 1975 which was the Maundy Thursday before Easter that year. Winter 1975 had been exceptionally mild but early and mid March was very different with frost and wintry showers. Another burst of Arctic air swept south across the UK on the 26th March with rain turning to sleet and snow across the Midlands before dieing out. The 27th dawned cold and frosty with a forecast for snow showers later in the day, however, by noon the
  12. No 2 years are the same but those looking for some spring warmth should note the experience of 2008, when a strong PV dominated winter extended well into Spring. March 2008 was very unsettled and increasingly cold with widespread snow over Easter. Further cold unsettled weather in early April brought further wintry showers and night frosts. It was the 24th April before the weather finally improved and I had to wait until the 25th April before 15c was reached for the first time in that year. Looking at the models the PV shows no sign of relenting and I suspect the current autumnal weather
  13. Just been watching a Michael Fish forecast from January 1979 during which he states 'it's a lot milder than recently with temperatures in southern areas reaching 5c, not far from normal' Not far from normal! These days 5c maximum in southern England is an Arctic blast! Lol Just type 1979 weather forecast into Google and remember better times. Andy
  14. The turning point in my mind was December 1988, since then winters have generally been milder and summers generally warmer. If you compare CET averages between 1961 -90 and 1981- 2010 there is a big difference, when the CET is updated to 1991 to 2020 the trend will continue. Andy
  15. Lol, I don't think I have ever seen such an operational outlier! It goes AWOL within days. Needless to say I expect the GFS OP to do a massive backtrack on the cold signal come the 12z. I have to say though GFS, it's full Mark's for trying! Andy
  16. Wow, some big upgrades this morning for a change , not only has snow prospects next week improves but ECM has the snowy spell followed by a cold high which migrates to Scandinavia in FI. Should this verify some northern areas could see several days of snow followed by frost and sunshine and certainly not the blowtorch south westerlies on previous runs. I suspect it's a cold outlier but a real change from yesterday. Furthermore that low at 168 only has to track a few hundred miles south to give heavy snow on its northern flank across Scotland. Interesting week model watching
  17. How many houses are there above 1000 feet! Lol However I get your point, very snowy over the mountains of Cumbria and Scotland Andy
  18. Haven't got the stats to hand but January 1969 was a very mild month but February 1969 was very cold with severe frost and multiple snow events. Anyone got the stats? Either way this year ain't going to follow suite as all the background signals are against a switch, we should maybe be looking for very mild winters followed by a cold snowy March like 1975 which has a lower CET than all 3 winter months. I remember the Great Birmingham Snowstorm of Maundy Thursday that year (27th March) , absolute classic. Andy
  19. Spot on post! Living in Cumbria at over 400 feet PM airmasses can deliver but for every one that deliveries three are a waste of time including this weeks fiasco where snow never made it below 800 feet. So yes I am very dubious of potential PM north westerlies as often they yield just cold rain and more miserable weather. Andy
  20. What was the reason? Always wondered why TWO went so quiet? PM me if it's easier as it's off topic. Cheers, Andy
  21. Wow, take a look at the ECM 240, the 1025mb isobar around the Mediterranean High stretches from the Channel Coast at Normandy to the deep Sahara, I reckon that's over 2000miles! That is one Monster Bartlett that isn't going anywhere. You can also bet that's one ECM 10 day chart that is sure to verify. Andy
  22. Oh well, at least the Spanish have some snow: Snowploughs clearing up to 50 cm of snow in north-west Murcia MURCIATODAY.COM It must be nice digging your way out of your drive knowing that in less than 2 months you will be sat in the garden with a beer. BTW these scenes are from the Murcia Region of South East Spain at an altitude of 2000 feet, in the higher Sierra Espuna Mountains 2 meters of snow has fallen above 3000 feet. Andy
  23. I have a holiday home in South East Spain and between the severe storm in early December and the one yesterday the weather has been glorious, the temperature on Boxing day reached 27c some 10c above normal, it cooled down afterwards but remained sunny until the storms arrived on Sunday. That's the upside of a Bartlet, terrible miserable winter weather here and summer weather in Spain, thank God I am retired so can enjoy. Just a note on yesterday's heavy snowfalls in Spain, yes they were on high ground but 1800 feet is hardly a mountain so they had a nice short spell of winter before
  24. Personally I think we concentrate far to much on background signals most of which are a fad in my opinion. The list is endless, MJO, AO, NAO, SSTs, Moutain Torque, El Nino to name but a few and most of these have appeared in the last 10 years, did all these things really line up perfectly in 1963 or 1979 for 3 solid months? Back then we just had the BDC, bloody damn cold! Andy
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