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Penrith Snow

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    Penrith Cumbria
  • Interests
    Weather, weather and weather
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers

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  1. 3rd time lucky? How about 30th time lucky! Lol Meanwhile its another green morning despite the weather warnings. Wednesdays low shiftedslightly south again and if correct the centre would pass over my house, lots of snow for Southern Scotland and gales for Liverpool and Manchester. Andy
  2. Ok,so after all the upheavals of the last few days GFS and ECM agree on cold zonality by day 9. Suits me fine, that half arsed easterly was never going to amount to much anyway! Andy
  3. US in the freezer, ghost easterlies from ECM, mid latitude highs alternating with raging zonality, its the same every winter, our winters are stuck in a never ending groundhog day! Absolutely appalling and if someone mentions the word Slider once more I swear I will............... Andy
  4. Looking at Crewecolds excellent analysis earlier I would rather have taken my chances with cold zonality than the mildish easterly that is on offer. Its just a colder version of the dull anticyclonic crap that we endured for 3 months last year. I wouldn't discount the GFS solution either ECMhas led us up the garden path too many times. Andy
  5. Eh no, at that altitude there is little difference between day and night time temperatures, especially in a easterly set up,one or two degrees at the most. Andy
  6. Some good looking charts considering this time last week we were looking at a New Year dominated by Bartletts! But please Weather Gods no more Midland snow storms, my relatives in Birmingham have been gloating for weeks about the 5 (yes 5) snowfalls that they have had since early December, surely they can't have another one! Andy
  7. Will all the negative teleconections for UK cold surely theECM can't be correct? If after all the recent MRFs we end up with a cold, easterly January I will never take notice of 'background' signals again! To be honest I am dubious about all these teleconections and background signals, most of which didn't exist back in the 1970's, in 1979 a MJO was something you ordered with a Spanish Tapas! Andy
  8. Oh yes, this was a beauty, nationwide freeze with the worst conditions south of the M4, I was in Birmingham at the time and that spell and the winter that followed was Epic. Andy
  9. If we do end up with a weak easterly followed by a cold north westerly this maybe no bad thing as such transitions often bring widespread snow as fronts move east. 20th January 1978 was a classic example, it was a month dominated by cold zonality but a brief easterly in the 3rd week was followed by a nationwide snowfall as north westerly winds took over. Snow depths varied from 5cms at Heathrow, 10 cms at Birmingham and 15cms atGlasgow airport. At dawn that day snowfall extended from Southern England toNorthern Scotland and you were unlucky to miss out. Andy
  10. You will see more snow in Scotland that's for sure but be ready for some bloody awful summers, totally different from your current location in Somerset! Andy
  11. My brother in Telford has just measured 7.5 inches on his lawn and its still coming down, Telford does seem very much the place to be no doubt aided by its modest altitude of 150 meters. Nothing here and nothing on Sunday expected either, oh well better than a Bartlett I suppose. Andy
  12. Amazing ECM, is this all a dream?
  13. First class post well said. Its the long wave dog that says the short wave rail not the other way round. The obsession some people have with short wave behaviour is daft, its the long wave pattern that magtsds. Andy I
  14. Massive downgrade across the models but all as expected given the universal forecasts of a mild winter from nearly all the worlds seasonal models. We have been here so many times before so I like many others were not drawn in by Stella charts beyond 144, why do the models do this every winter? It seems like a period of anticyclonic gloom is on the cards with a slow moving UK high before this eventually fades away east allowing the Atlantic back in. Familiar story. Andy
  15. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    December 1981 began with high pressure over the UK which then pulled back into the Atlantic and joined up with a large Greenland High. A low moving south east across England on the 8th ushered in bitterly cold northerly winds and the rest as they say is history. Tonight's GFS shows a remarkably similar scenario as does ECM, lets hope history is repeating itself 36 years later Andy