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Penrith Snow

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831 Exceptional

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Penrith Cumbria
  • Interests
    Weather, weather and weather
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers

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  1. GFS holds some promise this morning at least for northern areas as high pressure builds to the north but for the south it really isn't good, that makes a change! As for ECM you really couldnt draw a worse run in summer if you tried, especially as most of Europe is basking in heat, no warmth or settled whether at all out to day 10 as the UK remains under a invigorated though. Shocking! Andy
  2. My God, if you don't like wet weather then don't look at the overnight GFS run! Its basically very unsettled throughout with the UK under a upper though right out to Day 10. Upper temperatures improve next weekend but as one low fills another moves up from the south which would bring heavy rain and thunderstorms although a suspect temperatures would be back to normal in the north May be a tad above in the south. All the heat is over eastern Europe and Russia under a pronounced upper ridge. Not good, not good at all. Andy
  3. Heavy snow across north Cumbria down to sea level, 2-3cms in Carlise. Currently 0.4c dp -0.2c and moderate snow Andy
  4. Sitting in departures at Manchester airport on the way to Spain where spring has arrived early, 21c today on the Costa Blanca today. For those you just getting up don't bother looking at the models, MetO is terrible at 144 (3000 mile wide Bartlett) and GFS is pants at 240 (boring beyond belief). If there is any signal for cold it must be way out in La la land (beyond the orbit of Pluto) so I couldn't be bothered to look. Just 19 days to go until this awful winter is finally put out of its long misery, never has a winter promised so much and delivered so little. Andy
  5. Really? I have a house in Spain so follow the weather closely and throughout December and into January Amet were forecasting a wet winter across Iberia indicating low pressire, instead Spain has been under almost constant high pressure and I recorded just 17mm or rain in the whole of Dec and Jan. Andy
  6. I agree 100% with that, I would bet my weeks salary on it. Last year was exceptional and followed a cold February, this month is unlikely to be cold so my bet is on a mild March although not exceptionally so. Andy
  7. WARNING! DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run. So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come. It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned. Andy
  8. My God, has anyone seen this mornings GFS? It is seriously bad and brings us a mega Bartlett and blow torch conditions from 7 days out, you could ignore the run except it mirrors yesterdays ECM. February is looking more like 1998 to me than 2018! Oh dear................ Andy
  9. Just looked at the radar and the snow in the south has turned to sleet, this winter really is pants. GFS meanwhile is giving us deep south westerlies by next weekend with a Iberian High that is verging on a Bartlett! Don't know about SSW downwelling, this is tropical air upwelling! Christ, you couldn't make it up. Andy
  10. That's a very honest post which I really respect. Everyone including the MetO has been caught out this winter with such strong background signals delivering so few cold synoptics, but hey its not an exact science but we will learn. But I do like your openness unlike some others that are either in denial or who have gone into hiding. Well done you. Andy
  11. Ok, so to summarise the latest situation. Met O website medium range outlook very cold and snowy GFS cold and snowy ECM mild and wet UKMO model cold and snowy upgrade BBC 7 day outlook, cold at first milder later. Confused? You will be!! Never known such a bloody shambles, makes the Brexit debate in Parliament look clear cut! Andy
  12. Very good analysis, although its worth noting that low lying areas of the Midlands and SE have seen more snow than higher parts of northern England this week. The airbase was a lot colder than that modelled which bodes well for the next 10 days which could be very snowy almost anywhere across the UK depending on wind direction and depression track. People crave northern blocking and Scandy highs but in reality both can bring dry,dull weather rather than snow, the current set up could be more interesting, more for filling if risky. What it most definitely is is a forecasters nightmare! Andy
  13. Snowing heavily and settling, Jesus that was a long time coming! Lamp post watching at its best, trying desperately not to wake the Mrs up, she will think I am mad. Lets hope its a start of things to come. Andy
  14. I agree, never trust a cold spell until the MetO model is on board but don't abandon it until the MetO jumps ship. MetO still the best in the world, it's a scandal that the BBC dropped them. Andy
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