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Penrith Snow

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Penrith Cumbria
  • Interests
    Weather, weather and weather
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers

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  1. ECM looking good at 240, what could possibly go wrong. TBH guys the outlook is pretty grim for 90% of the UK for the next 10 days, let's not try to polish a turd. Andy
  2. With such cold air, light winds and dry ground surface we could be looking at some very low overnight minimum, I think -5c is possible here (had -1c yesterday), even lower in parts of Scotland. One to watch. Andy
  3. Yes, but how typical would it be for them to actually verify! Andy
  4. Lol, the ECM at 192 pushes the -5c uppers past the south coast while -10c uppers reach northern Scotland, Christ we didn't manage that all winter!, Andy
  5. Isn't this the day that the UK wind speed record was set on Cairngorme Mountain summit? Or maybe that was 1986?
  6. With some cold and potentially wintry weather next week I thought I would look back to an unexpected snowstorm that struck Birmingham 45 years ago on the 27th March 1975 which was the Maundy Thursday before Easter that year. Winter 1975 had been exceptionally mild but early and mid March was very different with frost and wintry showers. Another burst of Arctic air swept south across the UK on the 26th March with rain turning to sleet and snow across the Midlands before dieing out. The 27th dawned cold and frosty with a forecast for snow showers later in the day, however, by noon the temperature was up to 6c and with sunny skies and light winds the weather felt spring like so I decided to cut the grass, my pleasant morning was then disturbed by a friend ringing me from Knutsford services in Cheshire to say the M6 was at a standstill due to heavy snow, I thought he was having a laugh as in those days there was no way of checking road conditions. My phone call over I resumed my garden duties but then I noticed to the north west large dark cumulas clouds gathering and minutes later the sun went behind the clouds and the temperature dropped like a stone. 5 minutes later sheets of sleet and hail were sweeping down reducing visibility to 100 meters and hail quickly began to accumulate on my newly cut lawn. The wintry shower ended abruptly and I noticed the temperature was now down to 1c. The sun made a brief appearance then vanished again behind thick dark clouds and within minutes snow was falling so heavily that the ground was completely covered. The snow intensified over the next hour and by 3pm 5cms lay and my newly cut lawn had vanished under a white blanket. Meanwhile local radio had picked up on the storm and reports were coming in of chaotic conditions on roads across Birmingham, the A38 Aston Expressway was completely blocked with traffic backed up 7 miles onto the M6, the centre of the City was chocked with slow moving traffic. As the rush hour got underway conditions became even worse with snowfall rates exceeding 4cms per hour, many drivers having passed their tests in the recent mild winters had no experience of such severe conditions and their were dozens of accidents which further blocked major roads. By dusk the snow was beginning to slow and stopped shortly afterwards to leave a clear frosty night, snow depths on the morning of the 28th ranged from 7cms at Birmingham Airport to 18cms at Edgbaston University. The snow thawed quickly on the 28th but further snowfalls occured over Easter and during the first week of April. So what caused this unexpected heavy snowfall? Examination of the charts for that day show a light but very cold Artic airmass across the UK associated with high pressure in mid Atlantic and low pressure over Scandinavia, uppers were close to -9c so convection in the strong spring sunshine was intense, it appears that snow showers formed in the Irish Sea during the morning and were funnelled down the Cheshire Gap into Birmingham, it was a classic Cheshire Gap set up with snow showers merging in the Cheshire Gap and a streamer setting up from the Irish Sea to the West Midlands. I no longer live in Birmingham but I am sure my Brummie friends would like a repeat in the similar synoptics next week. Andy
  7. No 2 years are the same but those looking for some spring warmth should note the experience of 2008, when a strong PV dominated winter extended well into Spring. March 2008 was very unsettled and increasingly cold with widespread snow over Easter. Further cold unsettled weather in early April brought further wintry showers and night frosts. It was the 24th April before the weather finally improved and I had to wait until the 25th April before 15c was reached for the first time in that year. Looking at the models the PV shows no sign of relenting and I suspect the current autumnal weather will last several more weeks yet. Appalling. Andy
  8. Just been watching a Michael Fish forecast from January 1979 during which he states 'it's a lot milder than recently with temperatures in southern areas reaching 5c, not far from normal' Not far from normal! These days 5c maximum in southern England is an Arctic blast! Lol Just type 1979 weather forecast into Google and remember better times. Andy
  9. The turning point in my mind was December 1988, since then winters have generally been milder and summers generally warmer. If you compare CET averages between 1961 -90 and 1981- 2010 there is a big difference, when the CET is updated to 1991 to 2020 the trend will continue. Andy
  10. Lol, I don't think I have ever seen such an operational outlier! It goes AWOL within days. Needless to say I expect the GFS OP to do a massive backtrack on the cold signal come the 12z. I have to say though GFS, it's full Mark's for trying! Andy
  11. Wow, some big upgrades this morning for a change , not only has snow prospects next week improves but ECM has the snowy spell followed by a cold high which migrates to Scandinavia in FI. Should this verify some northern areas could see several days of snow followed by frost and sunshine and certainly not the blowtorch south westerlies on previous runs. I suspect it's a cold outlier but a real change from yesterday. Furthermore that low at 168 only has to track a few hundred miles south to give heavy snow on its northern flank across Scotland. Interesting week model watching this is. Andy
  12. How many houses are there above 1000 feet! Lol However I get your point, very snowy over the mountains of Cumbria and Scotland Andy
  13. Haven't got the stats to hand but January 1969 was a very mild month but February 1969 was very cold with severe frost and multiple snow events. Anyone got the stats? Either way this year ain't going to follow suite as all the background signals are against a switch, we should maybe be looking for very mild winters followed by a cold snowy March like 1975 which has a lower CET than all 3 winter months. I remember the Great Birmingham Snowstorm of Maundy Thursday that year (27th March) , absolute classic. Andy
  14. Spot on post! Living in Cumbria at over 400 feet PM airmasses can deliver but for every one that deliveries three are a waste of time including this weeks fiasco where snow never made it below 800 feet. So yes I am very dubious of potential PM north westerlies as often they yield just cold rain and more miserable weather. Andy
  15. What was the reason? Always wondered why TWO went so quiet? PM me if it's easier as it's off topic. Cheers, Andy
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