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Penrith Snow

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Penrith Cumbria
  • Interests
    Weather, weather and weather
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers

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  1. It's a sign of how desperate things are that a Two Day Toppler 8 days out gets us all excited! Looking at this mornings runs even that looks unlikely now with any northerly shunted east by the ever powerful PV. TBH I would prefer to be disappointed now than spend the next 8 days chasing a ghost. Andy
  2. Christ, I would have been tearing my hair out! Stafford is less than 20 miles from Telford. If it makes you feel better about that awful day I didn't get a flake, non from the snowfall 2 days later either. Andy
  3. Before writing winter off I said I would give it till mid January but I now fear we have gone beyond saving this winter into anything reasonable. We need i think to look at very miild first half winters from previous year and see what happened in February. When we look at winters like 1975, 1989, 1990, 1998, 2007 we see that all those Februaries where generally mild, however, they tended to be cooler than the previous two months with some cold and snow. This is likely to come from cold northerly or north westerly winds and I think the chances of a cold easterly are extremely very low. Even the very mild February of 1998 brought a cold, snowy north westerly at the end and a northerly in mid February 1989 brought snow to many central and northern areas. So I think Steve M is correct in throwing in the towel for a cold mid-Late winter but one or two spells of cold even snowy weather are ikely in February even if the month is still likely to bring temperatures a .little above average. All very disappointing for a low solar winter and coming after a crap snow less winter last year is depressing indeed. Andy
  4. The models are so appalling it's almost biblical, My God, my God why have thou forsaken me........
  5. It's a shame Glosea wasn't as accurate last winter when it repeatedly predicted Northen Blocking! Meanwhile I woke up this morning to find Uncle Barty sat in my chair, drinking my beer and eating mince pies!! He informs me he might be staying a while.......... Andy
  6. For those of us old enough to remember winter 1988/89 tonight's ECM is very similar, as someone said earlier it's almost like the sub tropical high pressure belt has shifted northwards, I have rarely seen such awful synoptics even in the worst winters of the 2000's. However, nothing is set in stone and things could change quickly, for our sanity let's hope so. Merry Christmas to everyone on Netweather. Andy
  7. GFS holds some promise this morning at least for northern areas as high pressure builds to the north but for the south it really isn't good, that makes a change! As for ECM you really couldnt draw a worse run in summer if you tried, especially as most of Europe is basking in heat, no warmth or settled whether at all out to day 10 as the UK remains under a invigorated though. Shocking! Andy
  8. My God, if you don't like wet weather then don't look at the overnight GFS run! Its basically very unsettled throughout with the UK under a upper though right out to Day 10. Upper temperatures improve next weekend but as one low fills another moves up from the south which would bring heavy rain and thunderstorms although a suspect temperatures would be back to normal in the north May be a tad above in the south. All the heat is over eastern Europe and Russia under a pronounced upper ridge. Not good, not good at all. Andy
  9. Heavy snow across north Cumbria down to sea level, 2-3cms in Carlise. Currently 0.4c dp -0.2c and moderate snow Andy
  10. Sitting in departures at Manchester airport on the way to Spain where spring has arrived early, 21c today on the Costa Blanca today. For those you just getting up don't bother looking at the models, MetO is terrible at 144 (3000 mile wide Bartlett) and GFS is pants at 240 (boring beyond belief). If there is any signal for cold it must be way out in La la land (beyond the orbit of Pluto) so I couldn't be bothered to look. Just 19 days to go until this awful winter is finally put out of its long misery, never has a winter promised so much and delivered so little. Andy
  11. Really? I have a house in Spain so follow the weather closely and throughout December and into January Amet were forecasting a wet winter across Iberia indicating low pressire, instead Spain has been under almost constant high pressure and I recorded just 17mm or rain in the whole of Dec and Jan. Andy
  12. I agree 100% with that, I would bet my weeks salary on it. Last year was exceptional and followed a cold February, this month is unlikely to be cold so my bet is on a mild March although not exceptionally so. Andy
  13. WARNING! DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run. So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come. It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned. Andy
  14. My God, has anyone seen this mornings GFS? It is seriously bad and brings us a mega Bartlett and blow torch conditions from 7 days out, you could ignore the run except it mirrors yesterdays ECM. February is looking more like 1998 to me than 2018! Oh dear................ Andy
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