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Male
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Penrith Cumbria
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Interests
Weather, weather and weather
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Weather Preferences
Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
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Penrith Snow's Achievements
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Chesil View At this rate any cold leaving the Russian Arctic next week will arrive just in time for Christmas! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The snow level on Friday is being lowered as the time approaches, anywhere above 400 feet in Northern England is in with a chance now. The Lake District being the sweat spot. Further out a cold easterly is looking more likely but at the moment cold rain and sleet more likely than snow. This however could be upgraded. Little sign of spring. Andy -
I never expected anything from this winter due to the strong El Nino, I am more hopeful of winter 2024/25 with a moderate La Nina. What I won't be doing is chasing the MJO and other Snake Oil solutions. If we stick to synoptic meteorology up to 168 hours our lives will be far less stressful. Andy
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some big snowfalls for Scotland then the Alps coming up with lots of cold rain for the rest of us. Thank God this awful grey warmth is coming to an end, who wants a black spring in February Andy -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The annoying thing is that we may see charts in early March that would of produced snow in early February but will just be cold rain as 850's won't be cold enough. High SSTs for the time of year won't help either. -
CryoraptorA303 Good a analysis. Pattern matching isn't perfect at all but IMO it's more useful than the mumbo jumbo of the MJO etc, and yes I have read the papers. Put it this way, pattern matching clearly pointed to a very mild February, I said as much in late January but the new so called signals pointed to extensive northern blocking and a cold month, even the MetO were taken in. It was never going to happen! December and January were very similar to other strong El Nino winters so the outcome for February was inevitable, add to that the fact that mild December's and January's are nearly always followed by a mild February, 1983 is a rare exception. The fact that other 'signals' got it so badly wrong goes to prove how unreliable they are as a forecasting tool, yet we still hear evangelist going on about MJO phases, AAM and the dreaded mountain torque, give it a rest guys or at least explain why it went so wrong while good old fashion pattern matching had February spot on. I respect people who research new areas in meteorology but some humility would be welcome. Andy
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you don't like wet weather don't look at this mornings GFS, it relentlessly wet up north and these conditions spread south next week to give a soaking FI everywhere with slow moving low pressure systems. ECM is similar with both models bringing in a cool North westerly next week so we may get snow on high ground in Scotland and a slight frost further south. It's terrible output to finish off a terrible winter with not even a sign of an early spring to make up for it, it's no stop cloud and rain. I remember the mild winters of the mid 70's but they were nothing compared to this years car crash, even in 1974/75 which was a very mild winter for its time the weather was often bright and dry with few gales, January 1975 brought widespread snow on the 24th and February was mild but benign. Then March brought some great weather with frequent very cold easterly and northerly winds, widespread frost and heavy snowfalls which continued well into April, May was unusually cold, frosty but sunny, while June brought freak snow on the 2nd then a 3 week heatwave. The weather in other words was 'interesting', I find nothing interesting about mild, sunless southwesterlies that persist for weeks on end, maybe that's just me Andy -
sundog indeed,we can only look back with envy at our parents time when weather charts looked like this. What a shame Netweather wasn't around to appreciate it. Andy
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy I have been impressed with GFS full stop, repeatedly terminating new born cold spells while ECM always pointed to a 1979 revisit. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like Andy's Feb 98 Arctic North Westerly revisit is coming into view. Pattern matching is limited but has its uses and I think a cold spell from the North is a good bet for late February. How cold and snowy is up for grabs but Shetlanders who have had a good winter anyway are in for more fun. Andy -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I am here in Southern Spain sitting under Barty's big behind so to speak and the weather is glorious, 24c today and low 20's forecast all week (average 17c) locals say they have never known such a warm, dry winter so lacking in rain and we all know the reason for that! This month is shaping up very much like February 1998 but interestingly that ended with a notable Arctic North Westerly which brought snow well south, I remember leaving the cinema in Penrith after watching Titanic to a blizzard outside, tonight's output and the ENS hint at a cold end to the month which would likely be from the North West. I just don't see any Northern blocking any time soon despite the SSW which again does more harm than good. I think a cold North Westerly is a credible outcome possibly leading to cold zonality in early March, winter seems a long way off but oddly so does spring. Andy -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Penrith Snow replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When considering the possibility of cold weather in late February have a look at the MetO 120 hour fax chart. The 528dam line (often referred to as the low level snow line) stretches from Newfoundland up to Southern Greenland, through Central Iceland across to Northern Norway, down through Finland then south through Poland towards the Black Sea. Everywhere south and west of this line is not going to see any low level snow, that represents 85% of the Atlantic/European sector! Such an expanse of mild air and northwards location of the 528dam line is normally found after late March at the earliest, normally you would see the line across mid or low latitudes in at least one area of Europe or the Atlantic. Even by modern standards the extent of mild air in the European/Atlantic area of the globe is as remarkable as it is depressing. Andy -
trickydicky Yes in Northeen Scotland the winter has been ok with frequently northerly outbreaks, in northern England it's been poor but with some snowfall and overall better then 2020, 2019, 2017,2014,2007. However, Midlands southwards its been up there with the worst, even Birmingham which lies above 450 feet has had literally no snow, that's bad for such a inland relatively high location. Southern England had no chance. Awful Andy
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North-Easterly Blast Good analysis, despite its limitations I prefer historical pattern matching to MJO naval gazing but that's just my opinion. Andy