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Ice Day

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    Nr Chelmsford, Essex
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    Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!

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  1. The Arpege's take on max temperatures over the next few days, today's through to Thursday: So based on this, we are looking at highs of 34 / 35 / 35 / 31 with nighttime minima in the low 20's Also, some very high CAPE being modelled for the next few days. Wednesday could go bang in a major way if these numbers are on the mark. Superb model watching at the moment.
  2. Looking like another blistering few days coming up, these are the Sunday to Wednesday temps modelled by the Arpege. As usual, the extreme's will be seen in the SE corner but warm or very warm for much of the UK and Ireland. So that's max's of 33 / 34 / 35 / 37 with a hot Thursday to follow. Extraordinary in the truest sense of the word! That said, if the ECM is on the money, next Friday onwards will bring in much cooler and unsettled conditions. For how long though?
  3. Bravo sir - it's a bit like missing balloon data at Christmas! Anyway, this mornings runs are a bit of a kitchen sink job for the UK and Ireland. Plenty of heat on offer in the short-term with chances of thunderstorms early to mid week, then it starts to look unsettled towards the end. That said, given the relative differences between ECM/GFS/UKMO at 144, anything beyond day 4 should be taken with a large pinch of sodium chloride!
  4. Given the proximity to the coast and London's UHI effect, I wouldnt have thought so. Still, all academic at this stage though.
  5. The real heat is being swept out of the way by day 7 - I wouldn't hang my hat on this evolution by any stretch though!
  6. ECM out to 144 and it's not quite the blow torch the UKMO is, but still hot all the same.
  7. .... and it is a warm outlier for days 6-9. Still looking ruddy hot though! Edit - Daniel beat me to it!
  8. Well, there's not much more for me to add. An insanely hot ECM run, which culminates in a potentially record breaking day 8. MWB's post above estimating the daily temperatures says it all, it's fascinating viewing but also a little concerning! Surely it's a warm outlier?
  9. Ignoring what's gone before, this mornings runs are very good for the majority on here (sorry @Mr Frost, you maybe in the minority!?) with plenty of warm/hot/very hot weather on offer from Tuesday onwards. A good chunk of England is again looking at some scorching temps on Saturday but also still very warm a day or two either side. The ECM was a slight outlier at day 7 but within the spread thereafter. August still shaping up very nicely I'd say.
  10. Wow, that ECM run would bring some serious heat into the UK and next weekend we'd probably be seeing similar temperatures to yesterday! Looking at the mean, the 850's are looking mighty impressive for Friday - Sunday. If this ECM run pans out, I'd say the all time high temperature *could* be under threat. That said, this mornings GFS goes a different route so nothing is nailed down yet.
  11. Unfortunately, SE Essex was never in with a chance. The CoS/ToD/PoS remains in full effect.
  12. The 6z is a very good run; it has the 12c Isotherm somewhere over the UK and Ireland from 126 right out to deepest FI. I think this would deliver something for everyone, the 192, 216, 240 all look warm/hot I think the vernacular is 'bank'!
  13. Good runs this morning, with the midweek unsettled spell now looking fairly brief. The ECM days 8-10 have a lot of promise (no change there then!). *IF* this came to fruition it would usher in a very warm and potentially protracted spell of summer weather for most! GFS at 240 is very much on the same page The warming trend is clear to see on the ECM and GEFS As always, at this range caution has to be exercised, hopefully we'll see a bit of consistency over the next few runs? But as the great Ian Drury once said, reason to be cheerful!
  14. I agree, 72 hours does though! I would say your location is looking good for a 'summery few days'.
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