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Ice Day

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    Nr Chelmsford, Essex
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    Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!

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  1. Interesting early changes on the 6z with the jet digging a bit further south, leaving us with this at day 9 Based on this run, our Irish contingent will be raising an eyebrow at 198hrs The days that follow show some snow for most areas around the UK. With the jet going south, were now very much in slider territory at day 10, with heights looking to build over Greenland. I'm enjoying the model consistency, if nothing else. It's a very long way off, but it's a start.
  2. A definite yes from me. It's been yet another winter of massive letdowns, as they always seem to be these days, but a late February cold spell can still pack a punch. There's some tentative uniformity between the ECM day 10 and GFS day 11, with rising heights up towards Greenland helping a pretty potent Scandi trough over in the days that follow Confidence levels are of course extremely low at this range, but if the models are showing it, it's worth discussing. For those that threw the towel in, you'll need to sit this one out!
  3. Well it's been a while since we had a pun run special, but it's churning out a corker at day 13! Very cold and an unstable airflow, very nice. However, this has about as much chance as any other day 13 pub run chart
  4. Drifter Completely unscientific, but probably just the GFS doing GFS'y things?! Be interesting where it sits in the ensembles, probably a very big outlier! For what it's worth, the GEFS mean at 150 is improved vs the 6z
  5. The GEM at days 9 and 10 looks really good Then we have the GFS at days 9 and 10 - yikes Then the UKMO at 168 is excellent Well, if the ECM backs the UK and GEM, game on. If it backs the GFS, oh dear!
  6. GFS at day 9 is now starting to look like the day 9 ECM, albeit a tad slower
  7. That's a different point Luke. I was just challenging your statement 'well played the GFS', as its been just as inconsistent as the others, albeit it hasn't 'yet' shown the same solution as the Euro's. It is still the leader. The verification stats show the ECM first, UKMO second. Of course, the GFS, ICON, and GEM have the occasional victory, but overall, the Euro's still lead the way, but are not infallible.
  8. Lukesluckybunch Can't agree with you at all. For example this mornings GFS 0z for 132 hrs Yesterday's 0z for the same time To suggest the GFS has, in some way, trumped the other models is incorrect. It verifies behind the ECM and UKMO (and now the GEM) for good reason.
  9. 240 - not quite, but this won't be the final outcome The fact that the UK and ECM are in almost perfect unison at 168 is a major plus. Exciting days ahead
  10. Could we see a cross-polar flow on the 216? Doubtful, but whatever there's big changes afoot
  11. ECM and UK at 168 are very much on the same page with the split vortex Where's it going from here then?
  12. The GEM finishes on an interesting note at day 10..... but it is day 10! The UKMO at 168 Big vortex split
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