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matt44myst

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Everything posted by matt44myst

  1. The GFS 0z run is a thing of absolute beauty. I’d give my right arm for that to verify as shown out to +384.
  2. We’ve really got to hope this pattern doesn’t become entrenched. That said, this winter has in many ways been classic La Niña, with the coldest weather in early winter and now tending milder than average. Albeit, we’ve got the influence of climate change interacting with this, likely further increasing geopotential height anomalies around NW Europe. I’m not holding out much hope of a Scandi high in the near future. The PV looks to be too strong and is generally displaced into the wrong parts of the NH by the Arctic high. I suspect we’ll have to ride this mild spell out (terrible for snow in the Scottish Highlands after the next few days) and hope that La Niña declines as forecast into the spring allowing some cold and stormy weather to penetrate further south into the UK and Europe as we head into March.
  3. I know exactly what you are saying in this post but it still made me smile....as far as I'm away all novembers get progressively colder and colder. Haha but i know exactly what your on about just me being a silly. Hope your right with your CET shout.. Matt
  4. come on, cc, even a rookie like me can understand the sense in what chiono, Mr Data, johnholmes and others are saying! I followed your posts with such admiration last winter but right now you seem to be lashing out at anyone who disagrees with you.... I fully expect to be dealt with like Kentishkiwi was but even so the AO/NAO are indeces that correspond to pressure differentials between two places. They are a measurement of a synoptic situation that is already there. It is those synoptics which drive the weather and not the measurement index of them. at least thats how i understand it...
  5. I have to say that I agree with the toppler scenario here. Unless pressure builds south out of the arctic, as happened in December, these midatlantic high northerlies rarely last that long. HOWEVER, the fact that the high is being shunted westwards can only be good at upgrading duration and potency of the northerly next week. Also if the jet remains amplified, around the midatlantic high, then even with a positive AO we can see repeated polar maritime reloads as was the case in late autumn and early winter last year. Interested to see how the subsequent runs develope the westward progression of the high though..
  6. down to around -5 the noo, really cracking cold spell this is shaping up to be. so much snow, much of which has gone through at least one thaw/freeze and so may be slightly more resistant when the eventual 'spring' thaw appears. another easy ice day today, with amazing icicles and frozen water everywhere...really magic stuff. looking forward to the snow from monday night onwards and then with higher pressure (looser isobars) and hopefully slack winds from a northerly quarter the night minima are gonna be exciting towards the end of the week. mondy: the big blob of cloud that you said was precipitation to our north, is that expected to give us snow here or will it fizzle out over the highlands? because the Meto seem to think a clear night is on the cards. Would be grateful for your opinion mate. Cheers, Matt
  7. Have to agree with you on this....beautiful sunny crisp day with the temp staying below freezing out of the sun. Hills to the north sparkling in the daylight...and all this on xmas day. Gonna take some beating. Still looking forward to the next few weeks and enjoying more old skool winter weather. I only hope that the weekend doesn't bring any serious thaw, there aren't really any major concerns on this front are there? Merry christmas everyone, Matt
  8. hi all, Just so that I can put some perspective into the current model outputs would anyone be able to tell me which model (of the big three) has performed the best during this current cold spell? Not necessarily the initial 'picking up' of the cold signal but subsequently.... Exciting times and great prospects at the moment though.. Cheers, Matt
  9. hi, I have been following this thread with interest over the summer...however one website i recently checked seems to believe that the minimum ice extent in 2005 was below the minimum extent achieved this year. But, according to everyone on this thread that is not the case. So would someone be able to set me straight re 2005 and 2009 minimum extents (assuming that the 2009 minimum has been reached). Thanks, Matt
  10. Am i right in thinking that we have a warm layer, of easterly winds, effectively bottled up in the lower stratosphere and waiting to be pushed into the the trophosphere by a cooling of the stratosphere higher up? if so as long as this propogates down eventually we could still be looking at a cold march. It's not possible that these easterly winds can have vanished so surely they must reach the surface eventually, right? Or was this MMW the final warming and no significant stratosphere cooling is going to occur and force them down? Matt
  11. if the current trend continues, then at the very least one of the curses of 'the even larger teapot' will soon be gone and that, of course, is way above average sst's around these shores. I feel that part of our extensive snowfall this winter off, at times, fairly marginal synoptics is due to the average to slightly below temps we have been experiencing since the autumn around the uk. This, at least, is a small crumb of comfort. If only the Barents could show a similar cooldown we might start getting some seriously cold northerlies. Matt
  12. thanks, JH and NSSC. It looks as though the models may just be starting to pick up on these signals. I think that wed/thurs next week is looking promising for the start of perhaps another wintry chapter. I hope so anyway. Matt
  13. hi all, this is my first post ever! I am new to netweather, although i have been following a few threads such as this one for most of the winter. anyway i have a few questions for the experts, particuarly NSSC or GP...if the current model outlooks of a slightly milder pattern are based on a downwelling of slight westerly zonal winds, when do you expect the subsequent easterlies to appear over the polar field? is it likely that model outputs will change dramatically, over a relatively short period of time, when these are picked up? in other words how long will this preceding westerly downwelling last before easterlies propagate right through the trophosphere? hope that makes sense and that my understanding isnt too flawed. matt
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