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Dean E

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    Chichester, West Sussex

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  1. Worth noting that in the 12z, the 2nd of March uppers have decreased slightly now that its coming into the near timeframe. I expect that to continue towards Thurs/Fridays event.
  2. Appears the GFS 12z is starting to correct this low *slowly* southwards. From over the years, forecasting any low from the South is difficult as it's against the norm. As @Steve Murr and others have stated, a move towards the Euro's take on the track is looking more likely right now.
  3. I recall the Channel Islands doing very well from a similar setup in March 2013, where a low moved up from France, producing 50cm+ over the islands. The front never made it to the South Coast, but we did get some convective showers instead. I still can't believe we are seeing such good outputs this close to the time frame, really is a 2010 and 2013 in the making this setup. Models have done a good job at this SSW induced cold spell thus far.
  4. Meanwhile in Paris... http://www.citycams.tv/en/france/paris-eiffel-tower/
  5. GFS been rock sold for the forecast SSW now for over a week (possibly longer?). If this works out as forecast, the GFS has done a ace job. Until the SSW has occured, the output post the weekend should be taken (as always in these setups) with a pinch of salt.
  6. Indeed was just about to post that info too. Latest Satellite shows the clouds breaking to our North too
  7. Just started snowing here in the last 10 minutes or so. Very light but sticking to everything. By sticking I mean small balls scattered very sparsely Temp -0.8c DP -4c
  8. Agreed Chino, one of the best SSW I've seen in many winters. This is the GFS forecast for Monday 12th after a weekend of warming. GFS has been spot on so far with this warming. When in the last few winters have we even seen close to this!
  9. I was wondering this too, it's certainly much harder to tell than before.
  10. Got to say, I prefer the older graphics from before. Much clearer detail on the Precipitation than the new one. One major issue I think they need to address is the place names. The added blue border completely covers certain areas in the national view. Take a look at Plymouth for example, you clearly can't see the IOW!
  11. Current outlook painted by the models is still on for one of the coldest weather we've had this season (so far..). NE'lys picking up in less than 24 hours time for the most of the UK. Temperatures on a positive downwards trend into next week. Snow showers likely Sunday to Monday in Parts of EA and the SE, could give a few cm's. Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the colder of the days as surface cold conditions start to develop. A weakening front from the Atlantic moves SE across the country during Tuesday and into Wednesday, bringing a renewed surge of cold air, this time from the NW (not the first time this winter and again remarkably cold 850's from this direction). Post Thursday things become tricky. Another front moving SE will bring some Precipitation into the NW. This front makes more advancement into the UK compared to Tuesdays, with a temporary rise in temperatures likely. Whether this will be rain or snow, is still open to doubt. It may not even make it at all. Come the weekend, which is was into FI imo, a renewed cold NW airstream is likely as things stand. Both GFS and EC are going down this route now. What a winter this has been and we are only in February...
  12. Missed most of the heaviest rain down here. Started sleety at around 8am here, before changing over the complete rain from 9am. Temperature rising quite quickly right now T: 9.5c Todays rain: 7.8mm
  13. Did stop at around 2.9c about half hour ago. Just checked now; at 0.7c, took quite a dive and much lower than forecast here.
  14. What we can hope for is a small scale low developing somewhere over us (January 2010 type). Chances of that happening though near 0%. One can dream...