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Dean E

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    Chichester, West Sussex

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  1. While we are in the lull, I'd thought I'd add my two cents. Since model watching from a teenage year (cool kid) to currently studying it in my masters, I've found/been taught to never take one run as the 'end of all weather'. I think some are in need of a little model detox! Also, trends are always your friends in many ways. I'm liking the new trend of the ECM recently promoting a surge of cold NW'lys, which at the moment where the proper cold sits. Pretty sure many more experience model watchers and meteorologists have said the same. The North or NW is where we need to look for the first attack, I believe the same.
  2. Appears to be what is left in the mild sector behind the front (which gave Cornwall 13c earlier!). Some mixing out of the upper temps is occurring as winds switch more Westerly later bringing somewhat colder uppers.
  3. Rain has now stopped here recorded a daily total of 42.9mm which is the highest daily amount at my location since March 2017! Temperature now increasing rapidly, up to 10c
  4. 31.2mm of rain has fallen today, making this the wettest day at my location since late May.
  5. Afternoon all, Been in lurking mode (blame studying!) Horrid Saturday as you all are experiencing too. Had some brief sleet this morning around 7 before rapidly back to rain. Already had 17mm of rain now, 5mm in the last half hour alone as the rain has picked up. Temp 5.9°C and rising quickly now.
  6. Have been sitting back with this weeks cold spell just because I feel its more a fleeting affair than a full on snow/frontal snow maker. The Models continue to paint a very uncertain outlook towards the Weekend. The 12z GFS brings the Atlantic through by Saturday morning across all parts, other models return to this idea today from earlier runs. While I believe this is too progressive, it is basically delaying the inevitable. The Atlantic is likely to return next week.
  7. Just had around 30 minute downpour with some very heavy rain for a time. Total is around 23mm during that time. Had a couple of rumbles, but its been mostly about the rain! Temp 14.7c
  8. Rough location of the cold front using latest observations (temps and humidity), anywhere west of this line is out and east are still in the game, especially so further towards the South and East.
  9. Rain just managed to throw it down here for a couple of minutes, oddly I'm out of that first line of precipitation which passed with no rain. Clearly elevated for now.
  10. I don't post often in this thread, but would like to share my thoughts. People already writing off August is silly in my mind. The EC really does paint a positive picture this evening throughout the reliable time frame, with the Azores high once again moving towards Scandinavia and resetting the pattern seen throughout July and early this month. You can see this developing +192hrs. That mean is pretty consistent for an Azores Ridge. Increased interest (which I think have been covered rather extensively by @Tamara and @Singularity and perfectly explained) is within the Tropical Pacific, which is always a good indicator for upstream developments beyond the range of the mid outputs of the models. El Nino implications continue to paint a interesting picture for the rest of August, which makes me think that people writing off higher temperatures (post 30°C) are being premature. I've personally been blow away by this summers conditions, but not overly surprised since the last 'major' pattern change in late February. Again, I personally can see August continuing how it started, past this weeks slightly more amplified forecast.
  11. Your location will be! Even so, I think most of us will be 'not used' to this blip after this summer so far!
  12. What a difference a day makes, this time yesterday I was sitting at 30°C and watching a thunderstorm rolling in. Stark contrast today with a high of just 22°C and a strong SW'ly breeze. I see tomorrows rain is already making inroads now on the radar. Really has been a while we've seen a substantial front moving in from the Atlantic!
  13. The moon has finally made appearance, a little late to see the lunar eclipse! The bright moon Is showing off some rapid convection shooting up once again here. Whether or not this is the start of another round of storms is to be seen!
  14. Had thunderstorms all around over the past few hours, some great lightning strikes but more worryingly very little rain. 0.3mm fell over the last 2 hours. With the ground being as dry as it is, fires sparked by lightning could be an issue!
  15. What a change from clear skies an hour ago to this. Deep rumbles from this Storm over Selsey.