Sunny Leith

Group hug !

Looking at those ever colder uppers I'd be surprised, nay horrified, if we don't get widespread convective snow showers piling in from the east. It just wouldn't make sense not to. I'd have to give up any pretence of understanding anything at all about the way these setups work. Probably too early to pour a nerve settling drink...

Jeez the blame game has already started ! It'll be Hawsey's fate ultimately to carry the can if it goes pear-shaped for any of us !

I'm a wee bit twitchy on that as well. Would make me less coastal (just at the very point I want to be coastal!) and put me 40-50 miles away from potential convective landfall around Berwick-Upon-Tweed and with 1500ft of The Lammermuirs in between. If it goes wrong here I won't be able to show my face in Leith for weeks, even promised a pals wee girl that she'd definitely absolutely be able to go sledging. Oh the shame of it if I mess up...

I don't have those but the last 12 hours had us in that isobaric kink showing around -8 or -9 uppers in these parts - that's a wee bit too close for comfort in Leith and probably Duddingston. Forecast was always that the down to -15 uppers would rattle in from the east as the day progresses.

Aye, ditto. I'm feeling some re-assurance now that the wind has just turned back to due East at Edin Airport. Previous 14 hours it's been WSW, NW, variable, NNE etc while this isobaric/frontal kink has worked it's way through (and given me nothing better than damp pavements). If it takes the rest of the day for the flow, uppers to get properly established then so be it.

Yeah fair to say here that until colder uppers and dew points kick in later then the coastal/estuary effect here is winning. Too marginal here until that happens.

Poor show in Leith. Roads, pavements, cars all wet. Millimetre thick covering on some grassy surfaces but not all of them. Instantly testing my belief on the unfolding severity of this spell which has to start getting its backside in gear here *Takes deep breath*

Aye its aboot time ye put some focus back on this forum

Feature to the north-east looking to be moving as much south as west which might still produce a more NE England landfall for the core of it. Early days... it might still correct more west. But would think Catch and SS might end up doing best from it. That said (Leith hat on) I'm viewing it chiefly as a nuisance feature and really only expecting the flow/coldest uppers and subsequent convection to kick in once it's out the picture.

The way I view the MOD thread is that if you visited some of them on Xmas Eve expecting a great time, they'd immediately drag you down into a depressing discussion about how Xmas will all be over in a couple of days. They can just never enjoy whats right in front of them sometimes.

Over to @hawsey for a Whitburn estimate !

All going the right way at Edin Airport. Normally an east wind throws up a bit of estuary warmth and keeps it a few degrees above. But not in this situation and dew points have been steadily dropping. Game on.

Joking aside, there's a reasonable chance that individually or collectively the Scottish Govt, the Police, local authorities/gritters, the MetOffice etc will all get "blamed" if there's any repeat of the 2010 M8 gridlock. But hee-haw they can do if the forces of nature overwhelm that road with multiple inches of snow per hour in whiteout conditions. Fundamental problem is of course that folk will travel when they shouldn't, can't adapt to the conditions, and won't even have a Mars Bar in the glove compartment. Fingers crossed we do avoid that scenario as my wife commutes to North Lanarkshire every day (NHS) and in 2010 it took 3 separate failed attempts to get from Edinburgh to her work during the M8 crisis, and days before she could even retrieve the car.

Aye, Humza better be ready. Anyway, he's much more of an action figure than Stewart Stevenson was in 2010. I remember him being interviewed on BBC Scotland News late at night on the day when folk were stranded on the M8. Political suicide for a transport minister to be sat in a warm TV studio saying everything was being taken care of, and his resignation was inevitable. Humza wouldn't repeat that kind of gaffe, he'd be out there in the snowplough drivers cabin with thermos flasks of soup

That's the bog standard BBC build up to an easterly when it comes to Scotland. Can't see how 5C comes to pass widely tomorrow. Been fine snawflakes blawin aboot here in Leith for a while (wasn't even expecting that today) and no anxieties whatsoever about the coming few days.

First reminder today for all of us (not that we needed reminding from previous easterly spells). That is, never mind what the BBC or MetOffice forecast says will happen anywhere locally, radar and nowcasting wins every time

If @Hawesy does a good job we should buy him a drink for his efforts. Only the one between us mindyou, this is Scotland after all.

That bench needs it's own webcam.

Ah. Meat balls indeed.

No sign of LS. I'm guessing he's sustained a back injury.

Your secret is safe with us Humza.

It'll be after it's happened, that's whats happened in 2010 !

Yes. Forth-Clyde streamer is a definite and repeatable phenomenon. The estuary acts as a further stretch of water allowing convection to push further west, making even "inland" areas near/downwind of the estuary (West Lothian, West Fife, Stirling/Dunblane, North Lanarkshire) almost a part of the North Sea coast. Also with a bit of height in those areas you get decent dumps of snow. Glasgow profits in the same way (2010 case in point and in the easterly aspects of 2009/10). Doesn't work so well in reverse of course because there's no equivalent Clyde estuary reaching this far east but stuff can still barrel west to east through the central belt (but less dependably than in the setup we'll see this week).

"Drifts of 5 feet in the North East". That must mean us, right ? Although I don't think thats where they mean at all ;-)