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DaBrigg

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    Dublin Coast, Ireland

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  1. Ive been lurking here, reading all the arguments on both sides. As I see it... (from an IMBY perspective in Eastern Ireland). ... the deep cold has been pushed back 48hours now from what the earliest runs were suggesting..still outside the reliable time frame. ..there are now higher 850temps progged for Monday than Saturday!! ..thickness are struggling to get down below 520 this far west until well into fantasy island, they remain fairly high through Tuesday, whereas sub 510dam air had been forecasted on many model runs. Those who are afraid of further downgrades have every right to be concerned. Its not a case of being spoilt after such amazing runs. It looks increasingly underwhelming from where Im sitting.
  2. Suddenly there's lots of lightning and loud thunder from a cell about 10-15 miles east of the Dublin coast, came out of nowehere
  3. Dew Points are hitting a muggy 18C around Dublin, with sunny breaks and southerly winds gusting to 30mph. Temp has been hovering around 23C for hours now. The rain from the cold front is less than 20 miles to my NW.
  4. I know people are desperate for any sort of warmth, but heat from such a deep tropical Atlantic source could be quite horrible. High dewpoints, sticky nights, and the potential for lots of cloud. That sort of weather just makes everyone cranky and irritable, and as an athlete I find it disgusting. I
  5. Over the last hour the remnants of this afternoon's storms that affected eastern Ireland have now flared up along the mid-Wales coast around Cardigan Bay. Some bright echoes, in there too. Quite unusual to see that happening at this time of year.
  6. Just had a surprisingly electrically active thunderstorm, preceded by a gust front, here on the east coast of Ireland, 20 miles north of Dublin. It was very active until i whipped the camera out and started recording, there was no more lightning after that. Its been the first decent storm at this location since the convective Irish Sea thundersnow of late Nov 2010, in fact.
  7. The continental air is now expected to brush eastern Ireland as early as Sunday Night. As the cold is closer to the surface than we're used to, we should pay more attention to temps at the 925hPa or 950hPa level, and the 850-1000hPa thicknesses. If the front stalls just a little further west it could get very interesting for some lucky people. http://expert-images...013000_2712.gif http://expert-images...013000_2712.gif
  8. We also had a light but unexpected fall of snow that morning on the east coast of Ireland. A showery band of precipitation moved south around around dawn, after a hard frost, and landed on frozen surfaces. The covering only lasted a few hours but was perfectly timed to cause trouble during morning rush hour in Dublin, etc. Although it wasn't much, any snow covering here is highly unusual most winters. Funnily enough, I have an Irish TV weather forecast from the previous evening recorded on video.... predicting showery rain, with perhaps a bit of high ground sleet/snow mixed in. The snow was a nice surprise. Conditions were just on the right side of marginal.
  9. I rarely post, but the latest developments in the models interest me. We should all keep in mind just how badly the models seem to handle blocking to our NE. Even if the overall pattern change is picked up well in advance, the models have been notorious for backtracking or changing the western and southern limits of the cold as late t+72 hours. The infamous scenario of frigid air ending up in Greece, seemed to happen all-to-often a few years back. The Arctic high ridging southward into Scandi around t+168 is an unusual pattern, rather like January 1987. It's very rare for such a scenario to deliver the goods here. Many easterlies have tended to come about from the text-book Russian high building westward, and some less potent easterlies even began with a mild mid-latitude or Atlantic high eventually drifting into Scandi. Whatever happens, a pattern change from the relentless wind and damp that we've had for weeks seems very likely to me. I've been keeping an eye on the SSW thread, keep up the good work guys.
  10. We cant take too much notice of just one run, so speaking strictly hypothetically.... if the 18z came to pass, North Sea coasts would get a nasty back edge NW'ly, while the Channel still gets a tight SWly gradient as the storm passes to the north. It looks like Cornwall would get worse winds with this scenario. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn969.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1029.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1089.png
  11. The 18z isnt a downgrade for some, the low still bombs, just later. It drops 20mb in six hours as it moves into the North Sea. It shouldn't be dismissed just yet.
  12. The 18z has the secondary low centre from Tuesday's storm further south and west, bringing a second batch of strong winds into Ireland then Northern England instead of Scotland on Wednesday. Quiet a difference for some of us at only t+60.
  13. One thing to note about the ECM enembles, most of them seem keen to keep the low centre in whatever form it comes reasonably far south. None at all throw it north of Scotland completely. There has been a slight southward shift over the last few GFS runs as well, I believe.
  14. Meanspeeds at 10m above ground level, but the GFS may be overdoing it a little. Model run after model run shows the possibility an exceptional wind event. If highlighting what the charts actually show is considered hyping and ramping, so be it! What else can we do, bury our heads in the sand and ignore them? Most of us realize the track and intensity of the storm is subject to change, but it doesnt mean we cant discuss what the charts actuallly show right now!
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