I rarely post, but the latest developments in the models interest me.
We should all keep in mind just how badly the models seem to handle blocking to our NE.
Even if the overall pattern change is picked up well in advance, the models have been notorious for backtracking or changing the western and southern limits of the cold as late t+72 hours. The infamous scenario of frigid air ending up in Greece, seemed to happen all-to-often a few years back.
The Arctic high ridging southward into Scandi around t+168 is an unusual pattern, rather like January 1987.
It's very rare for such a scenario to deliver the goods here. Many easterlies have tended to come about from the text-book Russian high building westward, and some less potent easterlies even began with a mild mid-latitude or Atlantic high eventually drifting into Scandi.
Whatever happens, a pattern change from the relentless wind and damp that we've had for weeks seems very likely to me. I've been keeping an eye on the SSW thread, keep up the good work guys.