danm

Back home in NE London and the sun is coming through now.

Summer8906 the cloudier weather in the south today isn’t really much to do with the SW flow, it’s because there’s a trailing weather front that been slow to clear. A few sunny spells now though, cloud is breaking. Feels very muggy.

Trailing weather front clearing south today hence the overhang of cloud and some early drizzle this morning.

In Absence of True Seasons left London on the train this morning, bright sunshine. Have arrived in Manchester for work and it’s peeing it down with rain. There is rain moving into the London area later but looks a lot lighter and more patchy.

Alderc 2.0 yeh but at least with Fahrenheit you still know exactly what the temperature is. It seems like their sunshine totals are grossly inflated.

Dry, settled and warm for the south from Thursday until about Sunday this week, up to 20c in the SE, with some good sunshine. Then a chilly NW’erly early next week. After that, this is what each model run shows this morning: ECM - the Atlantic high moves east, back over the UK GFS - the NW’erly is very brief before the high starts moving back east settling things down again. It’s not a very robust high so I wouldn’t expect wall to wall sunshine, but largely dry with some sunny spells and reasonable temperatures. UKMO - only goes out to Monday night but also shows the high moving back east:

The question is why they measure sunshine hours differently? Makes international comparison very difficult. Plus their own stats are misleading.

Autumn 2021 to Summer 2022. Dry:

Great post.

So what’s caused our wet March with a southerly tracking jet stream? The late season SSW! As it was always going to. Please people don’t wish for one again…

B87 Where do you find the annual totals? When I look at the anomaly site from the Met Office and switch to actuals, it shows the Heathrow area getting over 1800hrs in 2022. But when I total it up month by month on the meteociel site and also this Met office site it shows just over 1,600 hours. Not sure why the disparity?

Josh Rubio yep, 18c in the sunshine today has felt very pleasant.

raz.org.rain hmmm that would be a recipe for what we had in April/early May last year with clag in eastern Britain, sunniest in the west. From a IMBY perspective i'd prefer a SE to E flow to avoid that.

All those showers dried up before they reached here so it’s been a totally bone dry day with lots of sunny spells. A short while ago: It then clouded over but stayed dry, now back to a few sunny breaks again. A much better day than forecast. 17c the high.

Been a decent day here with sunny spells. 15c at the mo.

Arch Stanton yes true regarding current very high SST's. I also think the issue we've had over the last 18 months is continually being stuck on the wrong side of the jet stream. Whereas in 2018 and 2022 we had prolonged spells of being stuck south of the jet stream, which gave us lengthy dry and hot weather, apart from a few months the last 18 months has seen us stuck underneath the jet or just to the north of it. if we synoptically get another displacement north of the jet, as we had a couple of years ago, there is nothing to suggest we won't get into another prolonged dry spell. I suppose what is true is that with very high SST's, the wet spells we do get will be more intense.

No comment on the models this morning? In a nutshell, we have a nasty little feature tomorrow that'll give many of us cool, windy and damp weather. After that, pressure builds to the south and SE, bringing sunshine and temperatures up to 20c across these areas by Thursday and through the weekend. The ECM then makes more of that NW'erly blast, bring cooler temperatures again by early next week, but the GFS doesn't make too much of that and quickly rebuilds pressure from the west, settling things down nicely. The UKMO only goes out until next Sunday, but looks similar to the GFS in that it looks a lot less primed for a NW'erly in the way that the ECM shows. Step by step, this is what each run shows for tomorrow: Then later this week with the build of pressure to the south and south east: Then towards early next week, here's how each of them deal with the chillier NW'erly: ECM: UKMO only goes out to Sunday: GFS - keeps any NW'erly very brief, with a quick rebuild of high pressure: What about the means: Less bothered about 850's at this stage, so looking at pressure, the GEFS has a short dip before pressure builds again by the middle of next week - graph is for London: ...and for Manchester: The ECM mean unfortunately is less keen on a quick rebuild of high pressure and keeps any rebuild fairly weak: So we can confidently say that tomorrow looks awful for many, then much warmer, sunnier and drier across the south/SE midweek onwards and into the weekend, less so further north and west, then uncertainty over the potency and longevity of the NW'erly and how quickly and to what extent high pressure rebuilds into next week. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5055995

Tomorrow looks downright awful, but then there is hope for later this week:

No comment on the models this morning? In a nutshell, we have a nasty little feature tomorrow that'll give many of us cool, windy and damp weather. After that, pressure builds to the south and SE, bringing sunshine and temperatures up to 20c across these areas by Thursday and through the weekend. The ECM then makes more of that NW'erly blast, bring cooler temperatures again by early next week, but the GFS doesn't make too much of that and quickly rebuilds pressure from the west, settling things down nicely. The UKMO only goes out until next Sunday, but looks similar to the GFS in that it looks a lot less primed for a NW'erly in the way that the ECM shows. Step by step, this is what each run shows for tomorrow: Then later this week with the build of pressure to the south and south east: Then towards early next week, here's how each of them deal with the chillier NW'erly: ECM: UKMO only goes out to Sunday: GFS - keeps any NW'erly very brief, with a quick rebuild of high pressure: What about the means: Less bothered about 850's at this stage, so looking at pressure, the GEFS has a short dip before pressure builds again by the middle of next week - graph is for London: ...and for Manchester: The ECM mean unfortunately is less keen on a quick rebuild of high pressure and keeps any rebuild fairly weak: So we can confidently say that tomorrow looks awful for many, then much warmer, sunnier and drier across the south/SE midweek onwards and into the weekend, less so further north and west, then uncertainty over the potency and longevity of the NW'erly and how quickly and to what extent high pressure rebuilds into next week.

Daniel* Yep February has become a lot wetter, but then March, April, May and June have all become drier relative to the 1961-1990 period. March is 18% drier, April 5% drier, May is 9% drier, June 7.2% drier. In fact, looking back at the records, our Autumns and Winters have become a fair bit wetter, our March to June period has become drier and our July to September period looks largely flat. September is a little drier, July and August very slightly wetter. Overall average rainfall totals for Heathrow between 1961-1990 was 596.58mm per year, up to 614.98mm between 1991-2020, so a 3% increase overall. Average sunshine totals for Heathrow between 1961-1990 was 1,519.44 hrs per year, up to 1,674.81 hrs between 1991-2020, a 10% increase.

stainesbloke for the October to April period id say yes. It is more bland. We rarely get extremes of cold now. But in Summer, the extremes have increased in recent years. All time record broken twice within the space of 3 years - 2019 and 2022, 40c barrier smashed, more frequent 35c+ days etc.

Arctic Hare for London, the 1991-2020 period was 10% sunnier than 1961-1990, but only 3% wetter.